🔜 “kids can stay in public school to use the federal [scholarship] at their districts for their own needs.”
I’m seeing activists toss around numbers saying districts will lose 5% enrollment due to the federal tax credit. Nothing in the research record—even in the case against vouchers—supports this.
On the one hand, let’s stipulate that there’s no acceptable voucher-induced public school enrollment loss. On the other hand, what actually happens is very small per district.
The median voucher-induced enrollment loss by district is something like 0.5%.
My financial criticism of state vouchers has been based on the state budget impact of new costs—not mass exodus from public schools (which doesn’t happen).
This is precisely why vouchers cost *states* so much money—they’re new costs to states that have to pick up the tab for kids *who were never in public school in the first place.*
And the federal credit does not affect state budgets.
We don’t know what the FSTC will do to public school enrollment but there’s no reason to believe it would somehow exceed, several times over, even the worst universal state voucher system.
Especially when, unlike state vouchers, kids can stay in public school to use the federal version at their districts for their own needs.