And finally… the author copies have arrived! It’s a great feeling to hold the finished book after such a long process. The Axis of Resistance: Iran, Israel and the Struggle for the Middle East UK & EU: May 8 | US & North America: July 14 @politybooks

RT @ProfSAzodi: The hardliner Paydari Front - close to Saeed Jalili has asked the government to withdraw from the NPT and “reconsider the d…

RT @vali_nasr: My podcast interview with DecodingGeopolitics on the next phase of the war piped.video/zCOSKDLTGoI?is=INgf…

RT @ProfSAzodi: I was able to find three US intelligence documents from 1978 warning that the Iranian military is secretly working on nucle…

Told @AP that Netanyahu wants to attack Iran, that’s not even a question. Israel of rushing into another round with Iran without revamping its strategy. A clear Netanyahu victory in the Oct. 27 election means an attack is almost guaranteed. Main opposition candidates are likely to focus on domestic issues first, but the region is on the way toward “another kinetic escalation.” #IranWar‌ nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-…

RT @BabakVahdad: One Iranian voice worth watching closely at the moment is Mehdi Mohammadi, strategic affairs adviser to Parliament Speaker…

Yours truly; "Debating Policy in Public: Iranian Elites Turn to YouTube" @GulfStatesInst Blog Post October 22, 2026. shorturl.at/TWUE9

RT @vali_nasr: Told @WSJ US “can dismiss Iran’s threats as bluffs, but then they have surprised throughout this war. So if anything we shou…

US Iran war planners are ‘Convinced’ based on what exactly? Because a third time’s a charm?

#Iran’s letter to the UN Security Council: “The continuation of the naval blockade is not an isolated or purely economic measure; rather, it constitutes part of a broader context of initial acts of aggression.” “The United States cannot evade its international responsibility by substituting direct military attacks with economic coercion.” “Holding the perpetrators of aggression accountable is an undeniable necessity for the preservation of peace.” This could be a step toward building a case for escalation against U.S. naval forces enforcing the blockade. If Iran decides to attack - and that remains a big if - it wants to have already established the argument that it did not start the war, but rather that the war had continued in another form and that Iran was merely responding to an ongoing act of war by the U.S.

RT @vali_nasr: All indications are that U.S. is heading back to war. The next round could be larger and more devastating for Iran but also…

RT @AliVaez: Intended for provocation is a better description than power projection

NEW: Neither Russia nor Pakistan seem to have gotten anywhere in effort to end Iran-US conflict. Amid speculation about draconian US demands, senior Iranian political source denies claims about $6bn asset unfreeze for HEU or interest on $6bn in exchange for IAEA inspections.

"Iraq has closed the Sheeb border crossing with Iran to passengers"

Flow rates via Hormuz or anywhere else need to be looked at in context. Just because one day the flow rate is for instance 20 million bpd doesn’t mean that it will stay at that level and doesn’t mean the average for the month is that number. #OOTT

Review of “Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine” in @ForeignAffairs “Grajewski, an international relations scholar, offers a relentlessly detailed account of the recent rapprochement between Russia and Iran.”

RT @HamidRezaAz: Diplomatic Visits to Tehran, but War Still Looms 🔹The past two days have seen a significant uptick in diplomatic activity…

Leaders contemplating an Oct surprise or an offensive after the midterms must remember that military force may alter the balance of pain without resolving the disputes they’ll eventually have to confront across the negotiating table. My latest for @TIME time.com/article/2026/10/21/…

🛢️🛢️🛢️ In my latest analysis for @meiswitzerland, I explain why increasing flows through the Strait, absent an actual deal with Iran, did not and will never allow for normalization in energy markets. In short, the US escort mission strategy was both high-risk and expensive, global stockpiles are depleted, with little hope of their recovery, and strain on logistics has created a major expense. Link in comment.

RT @AliVaez: Told @thetimes that U.S. & Iran appear deadlocked when Tehran fears that surrendering its maritime leverage first would invite…

Diplomatic Visits to Tehran, but War Still Looms 🔹The past two days have seen a significant uptick in diplomatic activity surrounding #Iran, with several high-level visits to Tehran. But despite the intensity of these contacts, there are still few indications of a diplomatic breakthrough. In fact, the risk of renewed military confrontation appears greater than the prospect of an agreement. 🔹First, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Tehran after attending a Russia-GCC meeting, holding talks with senior Iranian officials. Then came Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir, who has previously served as a channel for exchanging messages between Tehran and Washington. 🔹Meanwhile, there have been reports of an aircraft used by Emirati officials making two round trips to Tehran in two days. Now, some Iranian sources report that a Qatari delegation also briefly visited Tehran, arriving around the time Munir departed. 🔹The diplomatic activity is therefore quite extensive, involving Russia, Pakistan, Qatar, and potentially the UAE. There are also reports of new proposals concerning the nuclear issue, frozen Iranian assets, and security arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz. 🔹However, the Iranian response so far suggests that the fundamental disagreements remain unresolved. 🔹During his meeting with Munir, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reiterated that Washington must first meet Iran’s seven conditions to rebuild trust. More importantly, SNSC Secretary Mohsen Rezaei explicitly rejected proposals to transfer Iran’s enriched uranium abroad, declaring that not even a small amount would leave the country. He also ruled out negotiations before the United States takes concrete steps to restore trust. 🔹These statements are particularly significant because they come from figures at the center of Iran’s security decision-making. They suggest that Tehran has yet to see an offer substantial enough to justify changing its position. 🔹From the Iranian perspective, lifting the blockade and releasing frozen assets are insufficient in exchange for major nuclear concessions. Washington, meanwhile, appears unwilling to offer broader sanctions relief without tangible Iranian concessions. 🔹There is also the military dimension. Reports of intensified U.S. and Israeli preparations, including the recent unannounced visit of Pete Hegseth to Israel, suggest that diplomacy is taking place alongside preparations for another possible round of fighting. 🔹Against this backdrop, the latest visits may be intended as much to communicate final positions, warnings, and red lines as to facilitate an agreement. Regional actors have strong reasons to prevent another war, while Russia has an interest in preserving its diplomatic relevance. 🔹But mediation cannot resolve the conflict unless one or both parties are willing to reconsider their demands. So far, there is little evidence of that. Both Tehran and Washington still appear to believe that additional pressure could improve their bargaining position. That makes another escalation a more plausible outcome than a negotiated settlement, despite the growing diplomatic activity.