Is this shaping up to be one of the biggest prediction market whiffs of all time?

new paper came out on the accuracy of prediction markets tldr, they are very accurate

Here are 3 of Nate Silver's own Silver Bulletin aggregates which literally assigned major “influence” to Wedgewood.

These are calibration plots — which says nothing about accuracy. These are nice pictures, but they don’t prove accuracy

The Dems are flooding prediction markets with bad bets to shift perceptions of reality. It only would cost $200,000 to change Talarico’s odds from 50 to 67% That’s a fraction of the 114 million spent on Talaricos campaign and more effective than road signs. People don’t believe polls but prediction markets create more certainty, because who would throw away money right? The best we can do is make their marketing stunt as expensive as possible by placing more bets on Paxton and collecting. Once election results hit the odds will be revealed to have been way off base and the Dems will use it as a call to regulate prediction markets.

EXCLUSIVE: A new study finds that political prediction market traders are not representative of all voters, but election market prices are more accurate than leading poll-based methods and not politically biased. The study found: ✅ In its first month of listing election contracts in 2024, Kalshi's prices beat every poll-based forecast (Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight, The Economist) in the national race, all seven battleground states, and 19 Senate races ✅ A trader who believed the poll-based models and traded against Kalshi's national price would have lost 92 to 100 cents per dollar. ✅ No poll-based forecast would have been profitable to trade against Kalshi in any group of presidential contests. 💰 @Kalshi's 2024 election traders were 86% male and half were under 30. 🏠 Their home zip codes voted 28% for Trump. A market that priced its traders' politics would have leaned toward Harris, not Trump. Instead, 60% of the money went to Republican positions, and Kalshi priced Trump as the favorite through the final month. 🔢 The study used data from @Kalshi in 2024, @PredictIt in 2016, and New York betting markets from 1884 to 1940. ✍️The study was authored by @HarryDCrane, Professor of Statistics at @RutgersU and member of @CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee & @KolemanStrumpf, Burchfield Presidential Chair of Political Economy, Department of Economics, @WakeForest University. Story via @Rotowire Below

Just a few examples of Wedgewood Polls holding significant weight in Silver Bulletin's polling averages:

EXCLUSIVE: A new study finds that political prediction market traders are not representative of all voters, but election market prices are more accurate than leading poll-based methods and not politically biased. The study found: ✅ In its first month of listing election contracts in 2024, Kalshi's prices beat every poll-based forecast (Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight, The Economist) in the national race, all seven battleground states, and 19 Senate races ✅ A trader who believed the poll-based models and traded against Kalshi's national price would have lost 92 to 100 cents per dollar. ✅ No poll-based forecast would have been profitable to trade against Kalshi in any group of presidential contests. 💰 @Kalshi's 2024 election traders were 86% male and half were under 30. 🏠 Their home zip codes voted 28% for Trump. A market that priced its traders' politics would have leaned toward Harris, not Trump. Instead, 60% of the money went to Republican positions, and Kalshi priced Trump as the favorite through the final month. 🔢 The study used data from @Kalshi in 2024, @PredictIt in 2016, and New York betting markets from 1884 to 1940. ✍️The study was authored by @HarryDCrane, Professor of Statistics at @RutgersU and member of @CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee & @KolemanStrumpf, Burchfield Presidential Chair of Political Economy, Department of Economics, @WakeForest University. Story via @Rotowire Below

New study on DEI in political prediction markets with @KolemanStrumpf Diversity, Efficiency, and Incentives in Political Prediction Markets posted at papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.… We studied every election trade made on Kalshi in 2024 and matched the traders to their politics.  Top Line: political prediction market traders are not representative of voters, and most traders are politically biased, but the market as a whole is not biased. How? Most traders are politically biased, but they bet small. The big traders who are motivated by profit drive most of the volume and they are not politically biased. More details: - Traders who placed a single trade put 73% of their money on Harris. - Kalshi's volume came from zip codes that voted just 28% for Trump, yet 60% of it went to Republican positions. Which traders are politically biased: - Traders who placed a single trade put 73% of their money on Harris and had the lowest returns of any group. - The tie between a trader's home zip code and the side the trader took weakens as trading activity rises and is not distinguishable from zero among traders with more than 100 trades. - Active traders (>100 trades) supplied 93% of the volume, and took the same positions in red and blue zip codes. Link to full paper below