Econ prof @WakeForest. Research interests = prediction mkts, digitization, public econ, media mkts, illicit mkts, ... co-organizer VIDE seminar @digitaleconorg
- Tweets 817
- Following 278
- Followers 441
- Likes 2,473
Op-ed in @WSJ with @HarryDCrane . Polls, not prediction markets, are the bigger threat to election integrity. Extends and emphasizes earlier thread,
Regulate polls, not prediction markets. There’s no evidence that betting harms election integrity, but fake surveys have done so this year, write Harry Crane @HarryDCrane and @KolemanStrumpf
on.wsj.com/4i8zIKq
3
5
21
2,682
A short article in @Harpers with Paul Rhode:
The intellectual and historical origins of prediction markets. All hail @robinhanson and @JamesSurowiecki
harpers.org/archive/2026/11/…
or archive.ph/RYFRb
2
7
748
Election integrity is important. That is why is time that Congress (and state congresses) turns it attention to regulating polls. Not prediction markets, polls. (1/n)
politico.com/news/2026/10/22…
4
10
159
5,866
If so-called experts use phony numbers and can be so easily tricked, this sounds like a tool that can be used maliciously to distort election. I say we need to start looking into this industry. Sen. Warren will you sponsor a bill? (/end)
2
1
74
Sheesh the gift that never stops giving. I think perhaps there is a problem in poll-land. How many grifters can there be?
NEW: @50plus1news has uncovered even more pollster shenanigans, this time from SoCal Strategies. After we requested comment from them, they too took down their website and X account. You can read our full investigation here: blog.fiftyplusone.news/more-…
16
Forgot to add this great post from @MickBransfield. This is nothing new: polls have had rotten apples for decades.
This is great work, but the problem has existed for a long time. There are a lot of sketchy pollsters who do not show up in polling averages. The industry needs meaningful self-policing.
And this doesn't address 'real' pollsters who don't know their job but can sell clients.
1
38
New paper on political prediction markets with @HarryDCrane .
arxiv.org/abs/2610.28277
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
🧵below (1/n)
New study on DEI in political prediction markets with @KolemanStrumpf
Diversity, Efficiency, and Incentives in Political Prediction Markets posted at
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
We studied every election trade made on Kalshi in 2024 and matched the traders to their politics.
Top Line: political prediction market traders are not representative of voters, and most traders are politically biased, but the market as a whole is not biased.
How? Most traders are politically biased, but they bet small. The big traders who are motivated by profit drive most of the volume and they are not politically biased.
More details:
- Traders who placed a single trade put 73% of their money on Harris.
- Kalshi's volume came from zip codes that voted just 28% for Trump, yet 60% of it went to Republican positions.
Which traders are politically biased:
- Traders who placed a single trade put 73% of their money on Harris and had the lowest returns of any group.
- The tie between a trader's home zip code and the side the trader took weakens as trading activity rises and is not distinguishable from zero among traders with more than 100 trades.
- Active traders (>100 trades) supplied 93% of the volume, and took the same positions in red and blue zip codes.
Link to full paper below
1
4
13
1,262
These markets differ in structure (historical markets non-anonymous: newspaper report names), scope, and type of skew (Kalshi traders older) but generally forecast well. Incentives not diversity is they key (6/n)
2
36
Please read the full paper (linked at the top) and send along notes and especially things for us to work on! (/end)
31
Prediction markets did not do too well with econ Nobel prize: Hall and Woodford not even options despite often mentioned as contenders. Similarly many misses with other prizes last week. As I tweeted last month, these markets are not great with closed room decisions.
Econ Nobel prize:
Still a bit early but figure should put this out here. Kalshi market is thin as last year. PMs do a bad job forecasting questions where info is sequstered from the public, eg papal selection. Wondering how well this will work this year.
kalshi.com/markets/kxnobelec…
4
4
23
3,341
I guess the NBA reads my tweets 😂.
NBA seems to be diverging from NFL:
“Frankly, from at least the NBA standpoint, we have roughly 40 different jurisdictions regulating us right now. So to have a consistent policy nationally, I think would be in our best interest,” [Commissioner Adam Silver] said. @AnanyaBChetia
4
290