The Poker Table Theory Of Short Covering
🔊
On the latest HAM for Lunch, Hedgeye CEO
@KeithMcCullough and
@HedgeyeAM Portfolio Managers Sam Rahman (
$HGRO)
@Hedgeye_HGRO and R. Patrick Kent (
$HELS,
$HEFT)
@RPKInvestor broke down the anatomy of last week’s liquidation and what short covering really looks like.
The trigger was a $28 billion tech hedge fund liquidating over two to three days.
The setup heading into last week had been a barbell, leadership software and mega-cap tech on one side, semis as the hedge on the other. When the fund blew up, it didn’t just dump semis, it dumped its software winners too.
As Sam put it, Friday was “the poster child of what a liquidation looks like,” with every software name, mid and large, down five to 10%.
What rallies last in a breakdown is high short interest, and Keith’s framing is a poker table.
You’re playing against someone who’s “absolutely hammered and sucks at poker.”
It only gets worse as they have another drink, betting the wrong way, until they “finally just give up and go to bed,” or run out of money, or both.
That’s short covering, the moment the shorts stop working and the market frustrates you on the upside before rolling back over.
To watch the full episode, click here:
app.hedgeye.com/insights/188…