Token prices are down -90% in six months. 1% of enterprises account for 85% of OpenAI and Anthropic spend. Hedgeye Global Technology Analyst Felix Wang joins
$HEFT Portfolio Manager R. Patrick Kent
@RPKInvestor to discuss the AI trade’s financing problem.
0:00 Welcome
@HedgeyeTech, Credit Spreads Widening and Small Caps Down 10%
2:50 Hyperscale CapEx Is the Key Indicator for AI Direction
4:04 Token Volumes Up 30 to 40% Month Over Month, Token Prices Down 90% in Six Months
6:31 1% of Enterprises Account for 80 to 85% of OpenAI and Anthropic Spend
9:31 Over 1,000 Models and Dario’s Pacing Argument Is Imagination
12:31 Freeze the Models Today, 99% of Productivity Gains Still Come From Implementation
15:48 No More Large-Scale AI IPOs This Year, Anthropic Will Need a 30 to 50% Cut
18:43 ARR Became Annualized Run Rate, and Overall Spend Is Slowing
24:11 The Memory Bear Case, Get Around the Memory Wall Instead of Solving It
29:37 China Is 30% of Memory Demand, CXMT and YMTC at Parity With the Cartel
33:32 Nvidia’s Rubin Timeline Is Slipping One to Two Quarters
37:34 Jensen Named Working Capital as the Problem, and the Market Sold Off
40:41 NeoClouds Don’t Turn Profitable Until Late 2028, If the Contracts Hold