Credible and constructive policy analysis and educational resources on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israeli politics, U.S.-Israel relations, and more.
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The time has come to chart the next phase of the U.S.-Israel security relationship.
Our new report by @RCBrandenburg, @GabrielEpsteinX, @elisaewers44, and @mkoplow lays out a vision for the next MOU: moving from a provider-recipient framework to a greater partnership.
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Israel Policy Forum retweeted
This has been the standard rule of Israeli politics, and it gives Netanyahu a built-in advantage. The tragedy here is that the opposition bloc laid the foundation for it in this election rather than tearing the structure down by needlessly ruling out Arab parties from the get go
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Israel Policy Forum retweeted
Folks should be following @GabrielEpsteinX for all data analysis on Israel's election and more.
Israel goes to the polls in a consequential election tomorrow, more than three years after October 7 and four years after the last election in 2022. With polls indicating an indecisive election, the final trends and things to watch on election day: 🧵
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The pressure is going to rest on the idea that relying on any Arab party support is illegitimate, dangerous, or irresponsible when there is a Zionist option to be had. This, after Israeli Arabs turned out in historic numbers, after Ra'am did everything it could to make itself acceptable to the Jewish majority and put a Zionist Yesh Atid MK as the second person on its list, and after Ra'am has been clear that it will not only participate in a Zionist government but accepts all three of Eisenkot's principles for joining (acceptance of Israel as Jewish and democratic, supporting the principles in the declaration if independence, and endorsing national service). If after all of that, the Jewish opposition bloc thinks it is better to join with Bibi despite repeatedly tabbing him as a force of destruction who is evading responsibility for Oct. 7 and puts his own needs above the state's, then the message to 1/5 of Israel's citizens will be that there is literally nothing they can do that will be accepted by the Jewish majority. If that is the opposition's position in the end, then the paeans to how wonderful it is that Arabs get to vote and serve in Knesset will be as hollow as possible. This is the perfect opportunity to genuinely integrate an Arab party and its voters into Israel's political system on completely Zionist terms. Eschewing that will do incalculable damage on multiple fronts.
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Assuming the Israeli exit polls are more or less accurate (not Ch. 14), there is now going to be huge pressure on Eisenkot and the opposition to form a unity government with Netanyahu. Doing so would be a big mistake, both substantively and politically 🧵
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8 p.m. turnout update: 74.3% (5,449,277 votes cast) -- turnout is starting to slow down, but remains higher than all but one election (1988) since 1973 at this stage. It is likely to reach 80%, but will probably not go much above that. The gap from 2022's turnout is 8%.
6 p.m. turnout update: 66.7% (4,892,186 votes cast) -- turnout remains the highest seen since recording began in 1973, and the gap with turnout in 2022 widens again to 9%. Unless there is a late decline in turnout, a final turnout of near or above 80% is now very likely.
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Real-time Election Results:
Israelis are voting at record rates in the 2026 election. This page will be updated with provisional results as they are released along with initial Knesset mandate projections and other analysis. israelpolicyforum.org/onetwe…
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Israel’s election determines who sits in the Knesset—not automatically who governs. 🧵
Voters choose parties, which must clear the 3.25% threshold to win seats. The largest party does not necessarily lead the next government: coalition-building determines who can. (1/4)
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A new government takes office only after winning a Knesset confidence vote. If all attempts fail, Israel heads to another election. Until a successor is sworn in, Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister—even if his coalition loses its majority. (3/4)
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How do Israelis’ votes become 120 Knesset seats? 🧵
First, they count ballots and remove invalid votes. “Double-envelope” ballots—including soldiers’ votes—are counted separately at Central Election Committee headquarters. Final results are due November 4. (1/4)
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Seats are first allocated proportionally, rounding down to whole seats. The remaining seats are distributed using Bader-Ofer, a formula favoring larger parties. Surplus vote agreements let two qualifying parties pool their strength to compete for those seats. (3/4)
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How are Israeli election results calculated?
IPF explains, in brief: israelpolicyforum.org/2026/1…
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How is an Israeli government formed?
IPF explains, in brief: israelpolicyforum.org/2026/1…
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How do millions of votes become 120 Knesset seats?
Our latest explainer breaks down how Israeli election results are calculated—from the electoral threshold to surplus vote agreements—and why the math matters. israelpolicyforum.org/2026/1…
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Israel Policy Forum retweeted
If current turnout numbers hold—which indicate highest Israeli turnout this century—it will force a critical decision. If most of the higher turnout is driven by voters supporting Ra'am and Joint List, it will bring the coalition numbers down but also the Jewish opposition 1/
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Israel Policy Forum retweeted
Wondering who is voting where in Israelis elections today? Watch @GabrielEpsteinX for updates analysis --👇🏼
Based on the 12 p.m. polling station-level data, Arab/Druze/Circassian localities are currently showing 24.1% turnout, about 10% behind overall turnout of 31.5%. So far, the only sub-group tracking closely with overall national turnout are the Negev Bedouin (31.3%)
To be clear, this data reflects only the polling stations that are reporting updated data and excludes any Arab-Israeli votes from mixed cities and Jerusalem, which may be systematically different in terms of turnout. Still, 24.1% at this stage is notably higher than in 2022, when the aChord center estimated that Arab turnout was 17% only by 2 p.m. That election, turnout seemed to see a greater increase in the afternoon and evening. If that is the case here as well, we should expect a high-turnout Arab vote.
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