As the results get finalized today or tomorrow, the gap to pay attention to is not between the opposition writ large and the Bibi bloc. It’s between the opposition bloc (Yashar, Beyachad, Liberman, Democrats) plus Ra’am, and the Bibi bloc. If that first group is larger than the Bibi bloc, minority government becomes much more feasible since it only requires a Joint List abstention. If Bibi has more than those five parties and it requires a Joint List vote in favor, it is exponentially more difficult politically. That’s when the calls for a unity government will start to become more attractive to folks in the opposition who may crack.

"Israelis turned out in numbers not seen in nearly four decades—including record turnout by Israel’s Arab community—and while the outcome remains uncertain, a clear majority of Israelis voted for the opposition rather than the ruling coalition. The results are a rejection of the direction the Netanyahu government has taken Israel and demonstrate that Israelis—both Jews and Arabs—are seeking change. No one has won an outright majority, and forming the next government will take time. But the opposition has realistic paths to a coalition, while Netanyahu faces a much more difficult route to securing a governing majority, despite having outperformed the polls and expectations." - Israel Policy Forum CEO David A. Halperin @dhalperin

Israelis turned out in numbers not seen in nearly four decades—including record turnout by Israel’s Arab community—and while the outcome remains uncertain, a clear majority of Israelis voted for the opposition rather than the ruling coalition. The results are a rejection of the direction the Netanyahu government has taken Israel and demonstrate that Israelis—both Jews and Arabs—are seeking change. No one has won an outright majority, and forming the next government will take time. But the opposition has realistic paths to a coalition, while Netanyahu faces a much more difficult route to securing a governing majority, despite having outperformed the polls and expectations.

Unpacking Israel’s Vote—and What Comes Next Join @RCBrandenburg, @drothem, @NeriZilber, @GabrielEpsteinX & moderator @ReichmanShanie today at 2pm ET to unpack the election results, coalition talks, and the dynamics at play. Register: israelpolicyforum.zoom.us/we…

Updating this now that 77.6% of the vote has been counted. All of the conclusions in the quoted tweet hold, as well as: •The Arab parties are likely to strengthen by perhaps another seat or two in regular ballot counting and then perhaps to lose it during the double-envelope counting, which will favor Zionist parties. •The gap between coalition and opposition has narrowed, as expected, but it's clear that the four opposition parties + Ra'am will not reach 61 seats alone. • Reservists-Economy would need to win close to 5% of the ~1.2 million remaining votes to be in position to cross the electoral threshold. That's very unlikely but not impossible, depending on how well the party does among the ~470,000 double-envelope ballots. An underrated point so far: for all the discussion of the non-optimal arrangement of Netanyahu's bloc, they were successful at pressuring parties to withdraw or attacking them to drive their vote total down. Right now, Reservists-Economy is burning more votes than Amcha Israel, Noam, and the Haredi splinter parties combined. That isn't to say votes for Reservists-Economy would otherwise have gone to the opposition, but a reminder that bloc organization can only do so much to outweigh size.

It goes without saying that on a historic election night for the Arab voters, in which they’ve elected an unprecedented number of MKs, Netanyahu has just totally disregarded them as equal citizens. But that was to be expected. What’s more disappointing (though sadly not very surprising) is that the Jewish opposition leaders didn’t make any gesture in their speeches to the Arabs either, and spoke of a “Zionist” government. They deserve to lose to Netanyahu.

So no olive branch from Netanyahu to the opposition, but he isn’t claiming either that his coalition is going to win. Instead he’s stressing his camp’s “Zionist” and “Jewish” majority and delegitimising any idea of a government supported by the Arab parties. It’s not a victory speech. It’s an election speech. The election isn’t over. It could be just beginning. He still hopes the numbers and a few defectors can somehow add up to a majority, or one of the opposition parties caves, but he’s already preparing the ground for the next election campaign in early 2027. The other main element in the speech was of course Iran. Which, together with his friend Trump, Israel has a “one-off opportunity” to defeat “once and for all.” Netanyahu’s strategy now is clear. 1. He’s lost his Knesset majority but he’s going to make sure no-one else can form a government 2. Launch a 3rd war with Iran, which of course will finally topple the regime 3. Then a quick election which he will win handily.

Three ways Israeli voters* told @netanyahu "go home": Anti Bibi block: 70 Pro Bibi block: 50 His coalition down from 68 to 50. His party down from 32 to 25. -------- * Pending final results.

The surge in Arab turnout and the likely strong result for the Arab parties Ra'am and the Joint List is the main story of the election (with the subplot of Haredi de-motivation and dysfunction). Both they and the mainstream Zionist opposition face some tough questions about what they can or should attempt in government formation. For the Arab parties, this is an incredible result far exceeding 2015 and 2020, and with two parties rather than a single Joint List. The first question will be how to convert the result into actual benefits for Arab Israelis, which failed in both 2015 and 2020. Ra'am will want to do that from inside a coalition, and the Joint List from outside. The second question will be whether this feat can be repeated in a future election. If not, then this political capital must be spent immediately and fully to avoid wasting it. That would mean forming a government with the opposition (Ra'am), protecting it (Joint List), and then making progress from the inside or demands from the outside that justify the higher level of engagement with Zionist parties. That would keep voters motivated and engaged in the future, since they would see results. The mainstream Zionist opposition faces a different dilemma. There is likely no one to pull into coalition with them from the other Jewish parties without sacrificing a key aim: compromising with the Haredim undermines a core priority for opposition voters; pulling in Smotrich or Ben Gvir will erase any potential to improve relations with the outside world and upset the base; and pulling in Netanyahu risks a rerun of 2020, limiting the benefits internationally of a new government, and is not what opposition voters have signaled they want. That leaves the Arab parties, and more specifically Ra'am. Many of the things the Arab sector needs in Israel--crushing organized crime, investment in infrastructure, education, and communities, etc.--are no-regrets policies important from a basic governance perspective. Greater integration of the Arab community into Israeli society is also key for political and democratic legitimacy, both internally and externally. In other words, much of what the Arab parties want that is not political are things that Zionist parties can and should do anyway. A minority government is not likely to last long. But the combination of circumstances producing today's results--Haredi dysfunction, poor arrangement in the coalition bloc and burned votes, and sky-high Arab turnout--is not likely to repeat itself. If there is an option for an opposition-Ra'am government now, the only viable path forward with it could not be timid. It would need to act and demonstrate results quickly so as to have something to run on if the new government collapses. A unity government promises a certain sort of political safety which should not be underrated, and it would have the legitimacy to make hard choices on a range of issues (if it was able to). But it will not look pretty either, and would be hard to manage in its own way. That's not to mention how it would surely be viewed in the U.S. and elsewhere, let alone the opposition's base, for failing to dislodge Netanyahu. These considerations are not simple or given to quick answers. Party leaders will have plenty of time to think things through in the coming week. I wouldn't expect a clear answer any time soon.

If the exit polls hold, tonight raises a huge demographic question: How is Israel’s fastest-growing population, the ultra-Orthodox, not gaining Knesset seats? Yes, there are reasons for lower turnout, including some Shas voters demanding mandatory military service. But where are the huge families, hundreds of grandchildren and demographic growth at the ballot box? Shas drops from 11 to 7 seats. Stunning.

8 p.m. turnout update: 74.3% (5,449,277 votes cast) -- turnout is starting to slow down, but remains higher than all but one election (1988) since 1973 at this stage. It is likely to reach 80%, but will probably not go much above that. The gap from 2022's turnout is 8%.

Watching scenes from Election Day in Israel, it’s hard not to think about how miraculous it is, in the context of Jewish history, that there is a nation—a home—where the Jewish people don’t need permission to determine their own future.

Real-time Election Results: Israelis are voting at record rates in the 2026 election. This page will be updated with provisional results as they are released along with initial Knesset mandate projections and other analysis. israelpolicyforum.org/onetwe…

Turnout in Arab localities has, by my calculation, reached 47.5% as of 4 p.m. That is 8.2% below national turnout (and matches 2022's national turnout), and far ahead of projected Arab turnout at this time in 2022. Arab turnout is on track to significantly exceed 2022 and will cross 60% soon if these trends continue. Negev Bedouin turnout, at 56.8%, is now narrowly leading national turnout. In 2022, these localities had final turnout of only 51%. A stunning get-out-the vote operation likely to benefit Ra'am, which in 2022 captured around 3/4 of the vote from these localities. Non-Bedouin, non-Druze Arab localities sit at 47.7% turnout as of now. In 2022, these localities saw 54.4% turnout overall -- and polls remain open. Christian and Druze localities are still at lower turnout: 43.3% and 33.8%, respectively. However, this might reflect a preference to vote later in the day -- hard to know for sure.

How are Israeli election results calculated? IPF explains, in brief: israelpolicyforum.org/2026/1…

Wondering who is voting where in Israelis elections today? Watch @GabrielEpsteinX for updates analysis --👇🏼

Based on the 12 p.m. polling station-level data, Arab/Druze/Circassian localities are currently showing 24.1% turnout, about 10% behind overall turnout of 31.5%. So far, the only sub-group tracking closely with overall national turnout are the Negev Bedouin (31.3%) To be clear, this data reflects only the polling stations that are reporting updated data and excludes any Arab-Israeli votes from mixed cities and Jerusalem, which may be systematically different in terms of turnout. Still, 24.1% at this stage is notably higher than in 2022, when the aChord center estimated that Arab turnout was 17% only by 2 p.m. That election, turnout seemed to see a greater increase in the afternoon and evening. If that is the case here as well, we should expect a high-turnout Arab vote.

2 hours until the polls open for Israel's 26th Knesset elections. As always, hoping for a safe, secure, and high-turnout vote. A few links to track and accounts to follow: Initial results will be posted shortly after polls close 10 p.m. local: votes26.bechirot.gov.il/ Track voter turnout throughout the day: mapvotes.bechirot.gov.il/ • National turnout updates will be posted every two hours by the Central Elections Committee (CEC), covering up to the hour prior: 11 a.m. (for 10 a.m., and so on), 1 p.m., 3 p.m., 5 p.m., 7 p.m., 9 p.m., and 11 p.m. for final turnout. • Assuming all goes well, turnout by polling place will be published four times during the day: 10 a.m., 1 p.m., 5 p.m., and 9 p.m. Follow the CEC's official account for updates: @electionknesset And in no particular order, some very insightful accounts and professionals worth following to make sense of the day (feel free to add more in the comments, I am missing many excellent people): Live updates, monitoring, and analysis: • @israel_elects • @ElectionOwl • @harelcain • @votesafterdark • @hamalelections Modelers, polling analysts, and data whizzes: • @LittleMoiz • @dahliasc • @Michael_Gilead • @gevakraoz • @skarim_org • @SmilgaNir Reporters and journalists: • @amirettin (via Telegram: t.me/no_politix) • @Knesset99 • @mmagadli (via Telegram: t.me/magadli/) • @BiniAshcknasy • @DaphnaLiel • @AmitSegal • @shemeshmicha And, of course, visit @IsraelPolicy4m's Project 120 to learn the parties, the blocs, the electoral process, where the polls left off on Friday, and to see the results as they come in live with analysis: israelpolicyforum.org/onetwe… See everyone in a few hours.

How do millions of votes become 120 Knesset seats? Our latest explainer breaks down how Israeli election results are calculated—from the electoral threshold to surplus vote agreements—and why the math matters. israelpolicyforum.org/2026/1…

Israelis head to the polls tomorrow (10/27) for the first elections since 2022. But that's just the first step in the process of forming a government. Wondering what happens once the polling stations close? See @IsraelPolicy4m's latest explainer --