Joined @maxbergmann on the @CSIS Eurofile podcast to discuss Germany’s politics, the rise of the AfD, the outlook for the German right and left, and what it all means for Europe ⬇️ piped.video/watch?v=q_qV6qau…

After the election, Israel faces political deadlock. Europeans need to use their leverage to ensure Netanyahu does not exploit the uncertainty to wage more war. @ECFRMena ecfr.eu/article/how-european…

Andreas Malm is an activist but also a provocative and thoughtful historian. His banishment from the UK should provoke particular consternation for those in our profession. Here is his wonderful account of how climate change challenges the way we relate the past to the present.

What a comeback. We will need time to properly understand it. But I think this was a 20th century politician who, at the very last possible moment, figured out how to run a 21st century campaign. After his first round loss, Lula started carrying a smartphone for the first time in his life, brought in younger aides who knew how to run a real digital operation, and finally was able to create some excitement in one of the world’s most terminally online countries. The net result was 3 million more people who turned out to vote, fewer spoiled ballots, votes from third-party candidates, and some repented bolsonaristas as well. Flávio Bolsonaro challenged the results, but he faces an extremely difficult battle. The margin of victory, more than 4 million votes, was too large to be explained by the delay in polling stations closing or any other abnormalities. Big Brazilian power brokers, including the so-called Centrão, are dutifully accepting the result. The Bolsonaros will ask the White House for support, but it’s important that the vast majority of Latin American leaders, including those on the right like Keiko Fujimori and José Antonio Kast, quickly recognized Lula’s victory. They concluded this is over, and the Trump administration may do the same. For Lula, the good news is that he won, and the bad news is that he won. He ran up a big bill to help make this happen: More than $60 billion in extra spending, welfare payments, debt forgiveness and other fiscal largesse. This in a country with real interest rates above 8% and a debt burden forecast to reach 83% of GDP this year, up a whopping 12 percentage points in Lula’s term. Markets are hemorrhaging in the hours after his victory, and they may get worse until Lula details his plans to cut spending. Lula also faces the most conservative Congress on record, a skeptical business community, and consumers who are struggling under huge debts as well. But look, Lula would rather deal with those problems than the alternative. He will be the man who defined an entire half-century of Brazilian history, from the metalworkers’ strike he led as a labor union leader in 1979 to the end of his fourth term in 2030. A truly epic story that is still being written, and may yet bring more surprises. -- For more, including reactions from @DaniCamp0 and Alessandra Ribeiro: americasquarterly.org/articl…

One of Lula’s most important and least well-known achievements is US capacity to sanction it into compliance is limited, because unlike Europe, Brazilians don’t need Visa or Mastercard to make payments.

FT’s report on Lula’s comeback says Flávio Bolsonaro’s “nine fingers” jab in the final debate, mocking the finger Lula lost in a factory accident at 17 while working nights, became a turning point. The attack let Lula draw a sharp contrast between his own working-class history and Bolsonaro’s background, helping shift momentum in the runoff.

I am in São Paulo. @TiagoRogero is in Brasília. The @guardian election live blog is here. And it is going to be a very very long and messy night theguardian.com/world/live/2…

🇫🇷⚡Il 2027 si avvicina e gli equilibri politici francesi restano in movimento. 📖 Da rileggere oggi: perché una possibile presidenza Le Pen porrebbe all’🇪🇺 una sfida specificamente 🇫🇷, diversa dagli altri casi europei? ✒️ @celiabelin e @jeremycliffe ecfr.eu/article/how-to-think…

🟠This webinar marks the launch of a new policy brief by ECFR’s New Politics Project, authored by @JeremyCliffe, @PiotrBuras1, @mehrer_angela and @jana_puglierin, which explores how Germany’s changing political landscape is influencing its geopolitical outlook, European commitments, and international role. Join us! ecfr.eu/event/can-europe-sti…

Sales of new vans are going electric, but the old diesel ones are staying on European roads for too long. Could a scrappage scheme accelerate the phase-out? My piece with the excellent Alex Turnbull for @ecfr

On Nov 2 @ecfr's New Politics Project publishes a new paper by @jana_puglierin, @PiotrBuras1, @mehrer_angela & me on how political flux in Germany is reshaping its European and global role. 🇩🇪 Online launch with @ChassNews & @A_Roedder ⬇️ Events in Berlin, Warsaw, Paris follow.

Breaking: the EU Parliament has awarded this year's Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought to the International Criminal Court (ICC). It comes as the court is under an unprecedented attack from the US government. rapporteur.com/news/exclusiv…

My new book - out today in Britain. All good bookstores etc…Also out in translation in Italy, Germany and the Netherlands this week

Le Pen currently ahead of every current prospective challenger in 2nd round of next year's presidential election ⬇️

🗓️ 29 October - 09:30-13:30 CET 📍 @ComisionEuropea, Madrid How can Europe secure cleaner, more affordable and more reliable energy? 📝 Register here ⬇️ @ECFRMadrid

While forecasts predict that the House of Representatives—and possibly the Senate—will turn blue on November 3rd, Europeans should not assume that Democrats can rein in Trump’s foreign policy, writes @nevadajoan. @ECFRStates ecfr.eu/article/a-democratic…

An unfair election and small-scale manipulation may not be enough to stop a shift in popular attitudes, as Viktor Orban’s stunning defeat in Hungary showed earlier this year, write @EngjellusheM and Goran Buldioski. @ECFREuropeanSec ecfr.eu/article/between-vuci…