Described as an "Election data sicko" by Hellgate NY Polling/methods @hitstrat tweets my opinion alone. Should tweet fewer jokes Oth socials at website
Washington, DC
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TheMerchRace.com go vote for the best Democratic campaign merchandise this cycle
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Absolutely shocked to learn that the Republican nominee for senate in Mass groomed and raped a 15 year old when he was in his 20s.
Two weeks from Election Day and still zero reporting from any news outlets on this.
A major party Senate candidate had a sexual relationship with a 15 year old—as a full grown adult—and wrote about it in his own memoir. #mapoli
wmasspi.com/2026/10/op-ed-pl…
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Jake Rubinstein retweeted
Pollster John McLaughlin warns of inaccurate midterm polls: internal details 'just don't make sense' justthenews.com/politics-pol…
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Jake Rubinstein retweeted
What’s moving Black voters this November, and what’s holding them back? Join @t_woodbury1 and Danielle Lemi on Tuesday, Oct. 27 at 3 PM ET as we unpack mobilization, motivations, voter suppression, and what’s at stake for the midterms and beyond.
Register: events.teams.microsoft.com/e…
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Jake Rubinstein retweeted
Especially in light of the Wedgewood & SoCal sagas of the last few days, this is something every poll watcher — from political journalists, to election nerds, to campaign staffers, to armchair polling experts — should read every word of.
@Jlrube really nails this.
15 days until Election Day, and the polls are about to come fast, but not all of them deserve your attention. In our latest Substack, @Jlrube, shares the four things he checks before he takes a poll seriously.
hitstrategies.substack.com/p…
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Jake Rubinstein retweeted
Logged on to Al Gores internet to find out there’s even more grifting so I’ll just say thanks to @gelliottmorris and reshare this post by my good pal @Jlrube and then log right back off to do real polling I guess
Since we're still unfortunately talking about fraudulent polls, I figured I'd repost this guide I wrote to help non-pollsters figure out what is worth paying attention to.
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Jake Rubinstein retweeted
Polling always survives this stuff bc it's unique
There is no other reliable way to
- ask an arbitrary question
- of giant, complicated population
- get a representative answer
- relatively fast, any time
Survey data isn't perfect. But, for a lot of purposes, it's the only game in town!
There are way too many otherwise knowledgeable people on this site asking questions like "how does polling recover".
Pollsters didn't do anything wrong! A bunch of people did fraud and got caught by pollsters!
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Since we're still unfortunately talking about fraudulent polls, I figured I'd repost this guide I wrote to help non-pollsters figure out what is worth paying attention to.
15 days until Election Day, and the polls are about to come fast, but not all of them deserve your attention. In our latest Substack, @Jlrube, shares the four things he checks before he takes a poll seriously.
hitstrategies.substack.com/p…
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There are way too many otherwise knowledgeable people on this site asking questions like "how does polling recover".
Pollsters didn't do anything wrong! A bunch of people did fraud and got caught by pollsters!
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Jake Rubinstein retweeted
Yesterday I authored a Substack that said a key criteria for judging a poll is that there are people willing to put their name and face beside the data.
Today we have a fraudulent org that put out fake polling without ever putting a name or a face beside the data.
Link below
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Jake Rubinstein retweeted
This is why people should stop doing this stuff. Faking polls is only feeding into the right wing narratives and will lead to more government censorship.
During this election season, there has been a significant surge in entirely Fake Polls and Suppression Polls designed to do nothing more than interfere with the regular functioning of the electoral process and alter the normal patterns of voter turnout and enthusiasm.
Many journalists and broadcasters have been amplifying or airing these Polls without regard to basic journalistic ethics and without informing the public that those Polls lack a scientific, accurate, or even real basis.
The FCC takes these issues seriously. Broadcasters are prohibited by the terms of their federal licenses from engaging in News Distortion or promoting Broadcast Hoaxes. It is important that broadcasters comply with their public interest obligations. After all, the country benefits greatly when Americans can trust and rely on the media to report the news fairly and accurately.
Broadcasters are advised to avoid engaging in News Distortions or running Broadcast Hoaxes by airing Polls that would violate their regulatory obligations. If broadcasters believe they should provide their viewers with additional context and information about Polls they have covered, they can now take those actions consistent with FCC regulations.
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Jake Rubinstein retweeted
If I had a nickel for every time Vivek put someone married to a pedophile in his campaign ad, I'd have two nickels. Which isn't a lot, but it's weird that it happened twice.
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Jake Rubinstein retweeted
This isn't insider trading. Insider trading would be if I placed bets knowing my firm was going to release polling.
This is just fraud.
Another possible insider trading case here from Wedgewood: poll release in MI Democratic primary in late June 2026.
With the caveat this is very low volume, looks like this account linked with Wedgewood did trade on Haley Stevens in the primary after.
kalshi.com/ideas/profiles/an…
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