FL by birth; Boston by choice. Sometimes DC. But really where @d_fifer is. Pollster at @workbenchstrat; Adjunct @EmersonCollege. she/her
Massachusetts, USA
- Tweets 1,569
- Following 1,132
- Followers 1,144
- Likes 9,918
This is how margin of error works actually and it makes me want to put my head through a wall that we continue to litigate it while ignoring the statistics. MoE applies to each frequency, not the “spread” and there is no Undecided result on Election Day. Who the Und are matters!
This is a major problem with how people and organizations measure polling “error” in general.
It assumes that voters who are undecided voters (and perhaps most that say they’re voting third party) will break proportionally to their vote share in the poll.
And often times they don’t! They often break hard one way or another. Doesn’t mean the poll was wrong. It wasn’t what it was measuring (unless they literally do an allocated vote to get to zero undecideds, which can be tricky/done poorly).
For example, if a pollster’s final poll of the race has the Democratic candidate at 46% and the Republican candidate at 42% with 12% undecided (so, D+4), but the Republican candidate wins 51-49, it could just be that undecideds broke hard for the Republican. But most people would say that the poll was off by 6 points (by margin).
2
5
32
5,494
Jane Rayburn retweeted
Men will literally start fake polling firms instead of going to therapy
2
77
790
15,725
Logged on to Al Gores internet to find out there’s even more grifting so I’ll just say thanks to @gelliottmorris and reshare this post by my good pal @Jlrube and then log right back off to do real polling I guess
Since we're still unfortunately talking about fraudulent polls, I figured I'd repost this guide I wrote to help non-pollsters figure out what is worth paying attention to.
1
4
369
We CaNt WiN OkLaHoMa …meanwhile….
Education is the top issue for voters, regardless of partisanship. And only one candidate is talking about it…💚
In a six to one vote, the Tulsa Public Schools school board has voted to close and/or consolidate 17 schools in order to save $12 million. okcfox.com/news/local/tps-bo…
158
Good morning ☀️
Workbench Strategy poll | 10/8-10/13 LV
Oklahoma Governor 2026
🟥Mike Mazzei 49%
🟦Cyndi Munson 45%
(Cyndi Munson internal)
Link to poll: politico.com/news/2026/10/20…
1
1
31
1,768
Democrats pump $500K into Oklahoma governor's race as map expands further into red territory politi.co/4ejreO2
24
87
402
60,874
It hasn’t been all that great these last few years to be a Florida Gator but this makes me proud 🧡💙🐊
This is the overflow crowd at the University of Florida in Gainesville, where @BernieSanders & @AngieNixon are continuing their tour today.
1,000 people are packed inside waiting for the rally to begin. Outside? More than 1,000 MORE are ready to send Angie Nixon to the US Senate!
1
89
Jane Rayburn retweeted
Politicians like Mike Mazzei are selling us out. He supports using our taxpayer dollars to fund a foreign corporation to build an aluminum smelter plant in Inola.
I voted against the $255 million tax giveaway for the Inola smelter. I will stop giveaways to foreign corporations who want to take advantage of our land, our resources, and our people.
72
124
380
7,292
Yall don’t sleep on Oklahoma, I’m telling you!!
A Workbench Strategy poll of likely Oklahoma voters found a one-point gap between Nick Coffey and Jon Echols after respondents heard candidate biographies. bit.ly/3UuYDyA
ALT Poll: Candidate bios shift Oklahoma attorney general matchup
3
19
863
“The president endorsed and picked the worst possible candidate out of the field of Republicans in Oklahoma,” the unnamed GOP strategist said.
@CyndiMunsonOK is also the best possible candidate. Watch her 💚
The Hill: Private polling in the Oklahoma governor's election shows a tied race.
“Democrats have seen polling showing the governor’s race is tied,” said one Democratic operative.
thehill.com/homenews/adminis…
3
6
41
922
A new super PAC created by two longtime Democratic operatives is spending $4 million across four key House races to portray Republicans as beholden to the AI lobby.
But they have their work cut out for them.👇
Read the latest in Decoded: politi.co/4yP0Yn9
8
11
29
25,562
Oklahoma! 💚💪
Ratings changes! Get your governors ratings changes here!
cookpolitical.com/analysis/g…
1
146
Jane Rayburn retweeted
“Our goal is both winning elections, but also figuring out, sort of testing the seeds of the arguments that are going to be important for Democrats as they have to face down this issue in 2028,” @Rob_Flaherty said. “It’s as much an experiment as it is an ad buy.”
🔗: politico.com/news/2026/10/13…
NEW: We're spending $1 million on TV and digital in each of:
-WI3
-PA8
-AZ6
-MI7
Holding Republicans accountable for taking donations from Big AI and then voting to ban state AI regulations.
1
4
413
Jane Rayburn retweeted
Substance matters here too. In our testing, the thing that upset voters most was the idea of banning state AI regs.
AI regulation is a winning political issue. Being against AI regs is a losing one.
1
3
6
514
Jane Rayburn retweeted
We have a pretty simple theory: being for AI regulations is good politics, and being against them is very bad politics.
In our polling of these districts (and beyond) and found that a message about banning state AI regs tested better than messaging about data centers.
2
1
7
657
Jane Rayburn retweeted
NEW: We're spending $1 million on TV and digital in each of:
-WI3
-PA8
-AZ6
-MI7
Holding Republicans accountable for taking donations from Big AI and then voting to ban state AI regulations.
2
6
23
10,026
Find me yapping about the Gov race 👇
GOV RACE DEBATE: Governor Maura Healey and her Republican challenger, former Abiomed executive Michael Minogue, will face off in their first televised debate on WBZ-TV on Thursday. Here’s what to watch for. w/@samanthajgross #mapoli bostonglobe.com/2026/10/08/m…
1
10
744
This is holding up as voters start voting. @AngieNixon is rebuilding the coalition in my beloved homestate and waking up dormant voters statewide. She can win if you vote for her! 💪
My new piece in the @thenation Florida Isn’t Red. Democrats Just Stopped Showing Up. With more than 900,000 Puerto Rican voters, Florida can be won in 2026 and put in play for 2028. Give Angie Nixon the chance she deserves. @AngieNixon @KatrinaNation
thenation.com/article/politi…
5
19
1,782
