Partisanship Score of Texas Early Voters (Days 1-2)
🔵 Voted in 2024: D+5.6
🔵 Didn't Vote in 2024: D+19.4
Perhaps most concerning for Paxton (and Abbott), low propensity voters turning out so far have very, very Democratic profiles.
Texas Early Vote Tracking: Day 2
As of Oct. 21, 2026
Total votes: 1,445,278 (+651,367)
14.9% of projected final turnout.
Modeled 2026 Vote:
🔵 James Talarico: 47.2% - 56.6%
🔴 Ken Paxton: 41.2% - 50.6%
Our Modeled 2026 vote ranges were unchanged from Day 1 to Day 2. VoteHub currently rates the race as Tilt D.