Director, UVA @Center4Politics. Author, The Kennedy Half Century bit.ly/3hSzJp5. Read the Crystal Ball every week: linktr.ee/c4politics

Charlottesville, VA
A favorite JFK quote: "The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in times of great moral crisis, maintain their neutrality.'
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RT @Center4Politics: LIVE TOMORROW (Fri 10/23) at @Center4Politics RAGING MODERATES hosts Scott Galloway @profgalloway & @JessicaTarlov joi…
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Larry Sabato retweeted
VoteHub/Verasight Poll: Ohio U.S. Senate Likely Voters: 🔵 Sherrod Brown – 47.5% 🔴 Jon Husted – 43.6% Registered Voters: 🔵 Sherrod Brown – 45.7% 🔴 Jon Husted – 43.8%
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Trump's approval was over 50 in every D-held Senate seat Republicans flipped in 2018. Past performance no guarantee of future results, but Collins was only GOP Senate incumbent or challenger in 18 or 20 who won in a state where exit polls showed Trump w/a net negative job rating
In 2018, Republicans managed to have a decent night in the Senate largely by just winning Trump approvers. And if the same thing happened this November, they’d get crushed.
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Larry Sabato retweeted
2nd-to-final update in personal VA congressional ratings after the @StateNavigate poll. 1: Likely D | Taylor +5 (🔵FLIP) 2: Solid D | Luria +11 (🔵FLIP) 3: Solid D | Scott +52 4: Solid D | McClellan +45 5: Tilt D | Perriello +2 (🔵FLIP) 6: Solid R | Cline +12 7: Solid D | Vindman +20 8: Solid D | Beyer +65 9: Solid R | Griffith +30 10: Solid D | Subranyum +27 11: Solid D | Walkinshaw +52
Personal VA Congressional Ratings VA-3/4/7/8/10/11: Solid D VA-2: Very Likely D ⬅️ (🔵 FLIP) VA-1: Lean D ◀️ (🔵FLIP) VA-5: Toss-Up ⬅️ VA-6/9: Solid R
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Partisanship Score of Texas Early Voters (Days 1-2) 🔵 Voted in 2024: D+5.6 🔵 Didn't Vote in 2024: D+19.4 Perhaps most concerning for Paxton (and Abbott), low propensity voters turning out so far have very, very Democratic profiles.
Texas Early Vote Tracking: Day 2 As of Oct. 21, 2026 Total votes: 1,445,278 (+651,367) 14.9% of projected final turnout. Modeled 2026 Vote: 🔵 James Talarico: 47.2% - 56.6% 🔴 Ken Paxton: 41.2% - 50.6% Our Modeled 2026 vote ranges were unchanged from Day 1 to Day 2. VoteHub currently rates the race as Tilt D.
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Larry Sabato retweeted
That could be bad news for Dems in a year when the Senate is decided by red states. If polling errors follow the average historic trend, Democrats' leads in Texas and Alaska could be wiped out while Iowa and Kansas move firmly into the Republican column economist.com/graphic-detail…
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Larry Sabato retweeted
In *every* election for *both* House and Senate since 1998, polls have overestimated Democrats by more in red states than blue states (and vice versa)
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Larry Sabato retweeted
SCOOP: The State Dept has started asking career diplomats up for promotion if they voted for Trump in 16, 20, 24. Federal law prohibits politically based hiring for career staff. State tells @washingtonsun it's screening for "fidelity" and execution of the president's vision👇
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Trump Administration has notified a federal judge that they could begin construction of the Trump Monumental Arch as early as November 5, despite widespread pushback against the project
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Pete Hegseth wanted Dwight Eisenhower's globe for his office. His staff broke it. Photos obtained by The Post show a gash in the World War II-era artifact that resulted from a botched relocation attempt inside the Pentagon. washingtonpost.com/national-…
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WATCH: Happening now at @Center4Politics, Virginia's Republican U.S. Senate nominee Maj. Gen. Bert Mizusawa. LIVE on our YouTube channel. piped.video/live/84F1mYqD12k…
Bert Mizusawa at UVA tonight! Join us at the Center for Politics as we host US Senate Candidate Bert Mizusawa for a speech and Q&A session at 7pm. Free and open to the public. The Center for Politics is located at 655 Leonard Sandridge Rd, near the Law School. Get your tickets here: centerforpolitics.org/event/… @Center4Politics
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Larry Sabato retweeted
GasBuddy data showing sharp retail price increases for gasoline (that we alerted you to Monday) in Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Wisconsin, and some continued intermittent supplier issues in the Plains (there’s enough fuel!) National avg $4.26/gal, diesel $6.30/gal
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Larry Sabato retweeted
NEW: Emerson poll on Texas
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Larry Sabato retweeted
🚨Scott's Scoreboard (October 21-- Evening Update) ✅Ohio Senate Moves from Tossup to Leans D ✅D's now have 57% chance of winning Senate scottsscoreboard.com/senate
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Larry Sabato retweeted
When first reported, 2025’s jobs reports added up to 1.2 million new jobs. After revisions, the economy added just 116,000 — 90% less.
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Larry Sabato retweeted
🚨Democrats lead Republicans 63%–26% among likely voters ages 18–29 in our Harvard Youth Poll. 63% of #GenZ say their midterm vote is opposition to Trump and his policies. Young voters are poised to deliver a sharp rebuke. Here’s what’s driving it. 🧵
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Larry Sabato retweeted
The Washington Post reports that ten current and former Defense Department officials, across the political spectrum, have been quietly meeting with leaders in at least ten states to prepare for Trump refusing to accept the midterm results. That is where we are now: national security officials defending American elections from an American president.
National security officials have been secretly bracing for the possibility that Trump refuses to accept the midterm election results. thedailybeast.com/top-offici…
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Maine Early Vote Tracking 🦞 As of Oct. 21, 2026 Total early votes: 130,520 (+32,650) 18.8% of projected final turnout. Modeled 2026 Vote: 🔵 Troy Jackson: 57.7% - 70.0% 🔴 Susan Collins: 30.0% - 42.3% Early votes in Maine are very blue, so remaining votes in Maine will be much more Republican. We rate this race as Tilt D.
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Larry Sabato retweeted
More evidence of completely Trump has erased the 24 gains that inspired GOP claims of realignment. One key point was his gains w/younger voters. In new @HarvardIOP youth poll he's at 73% disapproval w/young adults: 80% w/Black, 76% Hisp, 68% White. 39% of his 24 voters disapprove
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Larry Sabato retweeted
🇫🇷 "Of course, I would have liked to live." He was 17. Hours before his execution, he wrote to his mother, asking her to be brave. October 22, 1941. Châteaubriant, occupied France. German forces took 27 hostages to a quarry and shot them in retaliation for the killing of a German officer in Nantes. Among them was Guy Môquet, a teenage communist activist. Before facing the firing squad, he wrote a final letter to his family: "I am going to die!" Then came the words that still hurt, 85 years later: "Of course, I would have liked to live." He asked his little brother to study hard. He asked his mother to find the courage to overcome her grief. The hostages refused blindfolds. They faced death singing La Marseillaise. Twenty-seven lives ended that afternoon. One boy’s letter still speaks. Remember Guy Môquet. Remember all 27. Follow @Vanguard_WW2 for the human stories behind WWII.
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