My twitter will always be a personal blog for my random thoughts, for my own amusement, like 10-20 times a day If you take it more seriously than that, that's on you

> Brazil is not dependent on financial markets. That’s the problem

What is the effect of a fake poll on an election? What *could* the effect be? Find out below:

I can’t believe these type of people still exist after 16 years of the same dumb argument. Cities have to build, it’s what makes them cities.

RT @daawaga: LA mayoral election in CA-34 (USC poll): Nithya 61%, Bass 33% In the primary, CA-34 gave Nithya 38%, Bass 30%, Pratt 16% Nit…

This solid @NateSilver538 point pisses me off. We're facing huge, maybe world-shattering changes, a moment when you'd want clear-eyed competence at the top, and instead the man in charge is a shallow, incurious, verging-on-dementia con man. The worst timing imaginable.

It’s so funny that fascists have their own ultras who believe, like our ultras, that losing is actually winning, and shrinking the coalition is actually growing.

I think both Florida and SC will have closer margins than North Carolina

The problem with negative polarization is it’s by far the most fun way to engage with the internet. Like hell yeah fuck Peanut the squirrel

SCOOP: The Trump administration is approving 3 more wind projects (2 in Illinois and 1 in Iowa) stalled by the Pentagon in a bid to win Dem support for the bipartisan permitting reform bill. It’s the 2nd tranche of ongoing approvals. Text subscribers got it first!

Breaking News: Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) endorses Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins in Alaska’s governor’s race “I am announcing my endorsement of Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins,” Murkowski told Rebecca Palsha on Tuesday. “JKT is young Alaskan with a view and a perspective that I think Alaska needs right now.” Source: AK News Source alaskasnewssource.com/2026/1…

Effective immediately, Matt Forney is no longer the Editor-in-Chief at Debateless.

A young CR lost his life in a tragic car accident, and a Daily Wire guy doesn’t offer condolences to friends & family, rather celebrating because he endorsed Amy Acton. Pretty gross and the worst of politics. Humanity transcends political differences. This dude should be fired. Doesn’t get any views on his videos anyway.

It’s still crazy these Georgia statewide elections were 6 months and like 50% apart lol

It’s wild that there’s a natural center right majority in Israel but the country has polarized itself on “do you hate netanyahu’s guts”

on the voting grind this week

Neither bloc can form a government, and Netanyahu stays in office while everyone tries: 1) Netanyahu has no realistic route to 61. His bloc is the four religious-right parties plus Likud, and every party outside it ran on replacing him. To get there he would need defectors from Bennett or Lieberman, which both ruled out, or Ra’am, which Smotrich and Ben-Gvir would veto. 2) Eisenkot’s only path to a government runs through the Arab parties. Ra’am alone gets him to 58. He needs the Joint List as well, at least abstaining or giving outside support. That is the 2021 Bennett-Lapid model, but with a bigger dependency. Bennett and Lieberman have both been wary of relying on the Joint List. 3) The other way out is the Haredim. Shas plus UTJ is 14 seats, which would put Eisenkot at 66. But the draft is the issue that defines Lieberman, Bennett and the Democrats. A deal on exemptions would break his bloc from the inside. 4) The anti-Netanyahu parties plus the Arab parties come to about 69. That is enough to elect the Knesset speaker, control committees, and pass laws without forming a government. A bill barring an indicted MK from forming a government becomes possible. 5) Likud’s overperformance is mostly cannibalization. Likud gained, but its bloc is at 50. The votes came from inside the right, not from the center. 6) Stalemate favors Netanyahu. He stays caretaker PM through coalition talks and any repeat election. If nobody gets to 61, he governs by default. The likeliest outcomes are a Bennett-Lapid-style government that depends on Arab support, or deadlock and another election with Netanyahu still in charge. The whole question is whether Eisenkot, Bennett and Lieberman will sit with Arab support. Exit polls here usually miss by a seat or two per party, so a small shift around the threshold could change the math.