Time to start sharing trades and (current) market thoughts again. Won’t always be right.. but if people can undisclosed shill shit liquidity memecoins under the guise of “helping” people, I guess I can try to provide some form of value in return. We’re so back.
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Loma retweeted
"Wait for better conditions." "Things will get better." "Remember how things were in 2024?" Volume has been 2x-4x the volume of 2024 for practically 2 years and conditions have continued to get worse and worse each month. What does this tell us? It does not matter if "conditions improve" because the extraction machine just cranks up even more to negate the benefits that come from the extra volume. "WHY FUD BIZZY???" "BOTTOM SIGNAL BIZZY" No, I love this space but I hate what its become and we can keep acting like things will magically get better but that is not how it works. Things are not what they used to be. In past cycles bear markets are when the scammers disappeared, the real remained, things were dead but opportunities were easy to spot. This bear market the scammers became the celebrities, the extraction machine became more efficient, opportunities disappeared, the gamblers remained, things seemed alive but opportunities were all a mirage. Without change how can things improve? It can't because the problem is not the same as it was in the past. In the past the market would die because the volume disappeared. Now its dead because the volume is systematically churned and siphoned into the pockets of platforms, deployers, farmers and scammers. This is why I think its important to be real and hopefully open peoples eyes so that we can actually change rather than be a blind optimist.
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Would really enjoy it if we could not spend too much time here but given holidays and Q4.... Going to assume it's chop-suey conditions on Bitcoin for a month or two. With that assumption, I wouldn't take any hail mary 100% move shitcoin setups. Mostly intraday or intraweek, doesn't make sense to stay exposed for long durations during chop conditions. Not good for the mental to watch uPnL pivot between green and red.
It has occurred to me that people are confusing their meme coins as proxy for the trend of the crypto market. Our meme coins being down does not mean we're in a bear market. The meme coins being down is actually a combination of limited liquidity spread thin by low barrier-to-entry launches and extractive KOLs being good at extracting. Ex: a mediocre burglar but you keep your doors unlocked with zero cameras or other precautions. Too easy for people to mistake noise as signal. New wars, AI/SI, interest rates, etc. headlines every other day. The level is $78-81K, we could trade and consolidate here for a few weeks or months. Price not moving up as fast as you'd like is not bearish. Bull.
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I understand that fading Salsa tweets was a meme but the hit rate is immaculate.
It will be hilariously obvious in hindsight when we leg up again More signs with doom and gloom than at the 60k levels
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Either we’re so back or the variance is reverting to the mean and Salsa will be so right that everything basically goes to zero
Hayes dumping all his holdings Salsa bearish
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The cycle with no sustained outliers or runners because the field is littered with scammers, ruggers and KOLs who’ve managed to convince themselves that manipulating and extracting from their fellow man is part of the game. Villains and criminals.
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It has occurred to me that people are confusing their meme coins as proxy for the trend of the crypto market. Our meme coins being down does not mean we're in a bear market. The meme coins being down is actually a combination of limited liquidity spread thin by low barrier-to-entry launches and extractive KOLs being good at extracting. Ex: a mediocre burglar but you keep your doors unlocked with zero cameras or other precautions. Too easy for people to mistake noise as signal. New wars, AI/SI, interest rates, etc. headlines every other day. The level is $78-81K, we could trade and consolidate here for a few weeks or months. Price not moving up as fast as you'd like is not bearish. Bull.
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Valid argument for resistance could also be the $100K psychological level that also aligns with some technicals. Maybe setup for non-investors could look like profit-taking at $100K & $107K then wait to see how price plays out from there.
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Loma shares the rules he follows before entering a new trade after a losing streak. "Whenever I get stopped out of multiple positions at a time, I almost always take a break, because that usually means the trend is in danger. I’ll take two or three or four days before I enter another trade. It usually will hover there for a couple of days, or it will continue to rapidly fall and eat shit. If one in ten trend breaks leads to a V reversal, then I only miss the move one in ten times. That means nine out of ten times I prevent myself from eating a massive loss, and I can just get in where I got stopped out." Feat. @Tradermayne & @LomahCrypto
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Loma retweeted
everyone I know in crypto who has a conscience and actually cares about how they make money beyond just maximizing profits by any means necessary, (farming, scamming, bundling, rinsing their followers on vaporware, etc) is getting pretty jaded with crypto rn. and honestly, how can you not? this place has turned into a fucking cesspit of degeneracy where crime is literally applauded. every day, some frotnite faggot is flexing a 6fig bundle extraction pnl and getting praised like he accomplished something worth celebrating. pure speculation was fine when it was just one part of crypto, but now it’s pretty much all there is, and it fucking sucks.
Lately it’s been hard to come to grips with the fact that the crypto world I grew up in and loved is mostly gone and I don’t fit in with or relate to what’s popular in crypto anymore Hopeful that this will change one day but I’m not going to hold my breath
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This is burnout, and if you want to survive as a trader, you must learn to recognize it. True burnout is not just being overworked, nor is it something you can push through. It is a feedback loop that occurs when your body experiences intense, prolonged stress. Stress is part of life, and under normal conditions you can recover from it easily. In fact, many dimensions of human performance - strength, endurance, mental acuity - actually require stress in order to grow. However, growth in response to stress can only happen when the stress is manageable and offset by periods of recovery. When the stress is extreme and constant, the body fails to adapt and enters a downward spiral. As stress accumulates, several things happen physiologically: - sleep is disrupted - hormones become dysregulated - mental performance degrades - heart rate variability falls - inflammation rises and immune function declines The problem is that each of these effects also *reduces your ability to withstand and recover from stress.* So you enter a vicious cycle where recovery becomes impossible and performance steadily deteriorates. The experience @agapestride describes here is exactly what it feels like to burn out from trading. And if you find yourself in this situation, the most important thing you can do is *recognize what has happened.* You are not dumber than you used to be. You are not more indecisive. You are not more impulsive, fearful, or greedy. You are simply physiologically impaired by severe, chronic stress. When you notice the signs of burnout, you must prioritize recovery above all else: - cut your risk - stop looking at charts - get off social media - play sports or start running - spend time with friends and family - go hiking or traveling - take lots of hot baths As much as it feels like the best time to make generational wealth is RIGHT NOW, the market will always be here. So take a break and don't come back until you know your body can handle it.
I think I was much sharper trader in past few years, was able to avoid a lot of disaster moments, now brain turned into mush and no confidence at all
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Loma retweeted
Most traders never reach consistent profitability. In our new interview @LomahCrypto breaks down: • The moment everything clicked • How he manages risk • The habits that separate elite traders from everyone else Watch here: piped.video/watch?v=hg8CXH6H…
Made with AI
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Inevitable cleansing. Too many products competing for the same liquidity. Chains are a little easier to observe but you can extrapolate this to most alts as well. That 50th crypto casino or launchpad likely faces a similar fate.
Chains may shut down in 2026 or 2027
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Working a theory that bull market price action has changed in nature, from the previous cycles, because we’ve introduced a large amount of new participants while the older ones have retired or moved onto something else. The crypto cycles you knew, no longer exist.
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People are way too comfortable buying plastic-ridden filler peptides sourced from some apocalyptic factory in Shenzhen that's inevitably going to send them straight into the 8D mesoamerican jigsaw puzzle realm that is their brain
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Relevant
I don’t care if the Plasma Team’s name is “We’re Not Selling Tokens” with a wallet named “We’re Not Selling Tokens” alongside a whitepaper that says “We’re Not Selling Tokens”, them mfers are selling tokens
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Current class of trenchers suck. Nobody actually puts in any real meaningful effort. Majority of the effort is to track wallets and see what other KOL's are buying before they tweet about it. They just sit around waiting to be spoon-fed the next ticker. A generation of domesticated dogs that forgot they came from wolves.
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My best play this cycle was investing in Backpack last cycle. My worst play was investing in the other 100 projects that never delivered…
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Ref links are some of the least egregious forms of monetization possible. You save on fees. Your community saves on fees. You get a cut of the saved fees. The exchange benefits in volume by incentivizing you with the above. Stop caring about stupid people's opinions (including mine).
i deleted my posts with the ref-links and that is the end of it. i am done. people made twitter posts calling me a scammer, people called my a liar and a fraud in the comments. they wished me death and hurled all kinds of insults at me. not even giving me the grace to wait until the situation is fully understood and can be solved by me. i would have reimbursed. another thing that is hurting me is people saying i would farm ref-link money like i did with fomo. i airdropped all the money i made from fomo ref-links to you guys, more than 15000$ in total. maybe somebody remembers. i bankrolled tons of people who zeroed out, i gave people money for tuitions and tornado repairs in usbekistan and all kinds of bullshit that turned out lies. i always took time when people DMd me asking for advice. i helped where i could, did what i can. for what? to be taken advantage of in 9/10 times. i gave one guy 5k after he zeroed out, he ran that to 500k and never answered DMs until he was at zero again when he asked for more money. when i opened fomo account i specifically used a ref-link from the comment section because i wanted to use link from somebody who has little money and not one of my friends who are rich or are good traders. made this guy 5-figures from my volume alone, when i left fomo he DM'd me and asked me for a "parting gift". the story goes on, it poisons my mind. makes me a bitter human and more and more a misanthrop. whatever i do, people will hate. many of you are just massive cunts. i am done. will never post a ref-link ever again, will never make a suggestion ever again, will never airdrop money ever again. every man for himself. fuck you, every man for himself. the good people from my comment sections i will remember and my door is always open for them. rest can go fuck themselves. comments will be closed. i am done with social stuff. i will log my trades and thats the end of it.
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After a full month of on-chain shenanigans, these are my conclusions (opinions): 1. On-chain trenchers are not traders, this is like a slots enthusiast comparing themselves to poker players 2. Barring illegal activites, on-chain trading is harder but zero-to-hero is significantly more likely 3. Trading on CEXs is easier (risk of ruin is much more obvious) but generally takes longer 4. These platforms are not mutually exclusive and should be viewed as different opportunities for people with the capital to allocate towards them 5. More than half the top 100 leaderboards for fomo are scammers. P&D groups on telegram, bundling, copy trader killers and genuinely, I would just say they're dumb (which is a super power when it comes to memes)
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If you read between the lines here, that means (imo) the optimal approach, for a decent sized portfolio, becomes: 1. Keep majority of portfolio on CEXs to trade 2. Keep a small amount on-chain to punt the obvious asymmetrical plays that people are giving attention to 3. Big homerun trade on-chain = half onto CEX and half into the bank
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