Crypto analyst and DeFi addict. Busy finding the next 100x

Pinned Tweet
Your only job should be to find the best way to be unemployed and still make money. There is no other purpose in life.
244
2,337
21,417
879,652
lume.hl retweeted
A 7 fig airdrop right now will fix me
52
4
122
3,786
lume.hl retweeted
was going through a smart follower list today checking account by account to find people with solid content actually worth following then i realized at least 20% of them have been completely inactive for months, some up to 2 years the eerie part - their last posts were completely normal just standard commentary, charts, casual takes. no goodbye post, no announcement they just logged off one day and never came back
60
6
153
6,433
H Y P E R L I Q U I D ⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢀⣴⣿⣿⣶⡄ ⢀⣴⣶⣦⡀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⢠⣾⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⡄ ⣾⣿⣿⣿⣿⣄⡀⠀⠀⣠⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣷ ⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿ ⢿⣿⣿⣿⣿⡿⠋⠉⠉⠻⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⡿ ⠘⢿⣿⣿⠏⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠈⢿⣿⣿⣿⣿⣿⠃ ⠀⠀⠉⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠈⠻⣿⣿⠿⠃ hyperliquid:native
9
1
23
4,096
lume.hl retweeted
some of the best traders in this space, your “heroes,” have grown so big and influential that KOL deals can make them disgustingly more money than trading ever could, with virtually zero risk. they’re getting called out for it, and I get it. you’re reminiscing about a time when they actually shared objective insights instead of shilling whatever they’re getting paid to promote. but if u're being real, if you were in their position, you’d probably do the same. and there's nothing wrong with it. i'd do it too. they didn’t build massive followings and accumulate all that influence just to leave it unmonetized. at the end of the day, there’s little point in constantly throwing shade at KOLs. no one is clicking the buttons for you. ur pnl comes down to the buttons YOU click and the decisions YOU make. you can blame KOLs and launchpads all you want but until you take full accountability for your own decisions, you’ll never make it in this space. or in life.
16
5
88
6,186
lume.hl retweeted
I think 99% of us who got absolutely fucked over the last 18 months made one mistake. We wanted to be the MVP every fucking day. Look at James Wynn as a case study. You go from nothing to $100M. But suddenly $100M isn't enough. You want $500M. Then $1B. And somewhere in that pursuit, the numbers start going backwards. $100M → $50M → $25M → $1M → $100K → $10K → -$50K → -$200K. And the worst part? You're not even chasing money anymore. You're chasing the version of yourself that everyone once admired. The same crowd that watched you become somebody now watches you become nobody. Maybe that's where most of us fucked up. We forgot that you don't have to be the main character every single day. Sometimes take the L. Take a break. Lose some people. Let them go. Let the world forget about you for a while. You don't have to win everything. You don't even have to prove anything. The sun sets every day, and nobody calls it washed. It just rises again.
53
78
549
70,886
lume.hl retweeted
I so desperately want to end the psyop that buybacks don't work: 1. Mechanically speaking, buybacks make the price go up 2. Crypto is not TradFi, there is a different social contract > The Mechanical Value of Buybacks First there's a large number of studies that confirm basic intuitions: * Market Underreaction to Open Market Share Repurchases NBER (1995) - Buybacks create long term value, especially for underpriced stocks * The Nature and Persistence of Buyback Anomalies (2009) - Reaffirms buybacks create persistent abnormal positive returns. They have an especially positive effect smoothing over price dips when the market overreacts to bad new * Actual Share Repurchases, Price Efficiency, and the Information Content of Stock Prices (2017) - Reaffirms the findings of the 2009 paper. Buybacks improve pricing efficiency, liquidity, and are especially positive during market declines * Pavilion Global Markets Buybacks Drive S&P 500 Returns (2023) - Buybacks can drive up to 43% of the returns in a single stock tldr: buybacks make the number go up. obviously they work better when your stock is at a lower p/e because of under appreciation or market downturns unrelated to the core business, but nonetheless they are positive on the stock THIS SHOULD BE REALLY OBVIOUS, you don't even need to read any of the papers above to understand the basic intuitions of why they work: * Price is a function of supply and demand. When buybacks take supply off the market, price goes up all else held equal * When shares get taken off the market, the shares you hold represent a larger share of the business meaning you benefit from EPS growth even if revenue isn't growing (let alone if it is) * Businesses providing constant single sided buys on their own shares has a smoothing effect on liquidity making deeps shallower and setting higher price floors in the long run (more shares are repurchased on a fixed buying program when price is lower) Some specific examples: * about 51% of Apple's EPS growth is credited to their legendary buyback program retiring so many outstanding shares * Autozone has bought back like 90% of their shares - the stock has had double the annualized returns of the SP for the last 2 decades * Home Depot is similar to Autozone What crypto people get uncomfortable is that buybacks take a long time to compound. This is totally fine in the stock market where there's many businesses you can forecast out in to the future for a decade+. In crypto I understand this rightfully makes people nervous One prime example of this would be PONS. It kinda doesn't matter how much %of supply was bought back by PONS if their business never recovers. The entire trade/business may end up being too much a flash-in-the-pan for the long term effect of buybacks to have compounded But we're now seeing a few crypto businesses start to cross the chasm into multi-cycle success stories. We can & should expect the businesses to implement long durable buyback programs that will compound excess positive returns for the years to come > The importance of buybacks in crypto I don't know if any of you noticed this, but you have no legal protections as token holders. It's also not even on any government roadmap to fix this Regulators are just now getting around to setting some guidelines for crypto projects to not get sued - but even then, none of those guidelines relate to you. You do not have voting rights. You do not have legal recourse. In fact most times you don't even own equity in the underlying businesses which actually collect the revenues IF token holders had legal rights. IF I could sue Compound or Aave for what they've done to token holders, I'd be far more sympathetic to the argument that teams should wait for buybacks. At the end of the day, I know I'd be able to pursue legal recourse & pressure with like minded token holders to force them to return capital when the time is right Unfortunately, you have none of these abilities. You have nothing but the promises of the team. IN FACT, a team that likely ran a points program or other to WIN YOUR BUSINESS by trading some of their equity. I'd argue they have a moral responsibility to you to show they're aligned in the long term with you even in the lack of regulatory requirements
This is fundamentally flawed analysis The most junior analyst on Wall Street knows that when a company starts doing stock buybacks, it's because they can't innovate anymore By this logic, FTT was a good bid Why should I buy a token that can't attract new marginal buyers?
74
43
390
40,527
If I could tell someone in their early 20s one thing, I would say work hard, build a career, and chase success, but don’t make the mistake of thinking that is what life is all about. I spent years working 12 hours a day, 7 days a week. It gave me an edge, helped me get to where I am today, and shaped the person I have become. But early on the way, I realized that being good at making a living and being good at living are two very different things. I have always been sincere about my work. I have never looked for shortcuts and have always tried to do the best I could at every job. This probably comes from how I was brought up (strict CIS parenting, with little room for joy, emotions, or the idea that doing something poorly was ever acceptable). But there are more important things in life than professional success. Don’t get me wrong. I still work 12 hours a day on weekdays, put in half a day on Saturdays, and work on Sundays when something important comes up. But I’ve never measured someone’s success by their career achievements or how much money they have. From a young age, I realized that real happiness comes from other things: love, family, interests, and freedom of thought, movement, and choice. And just by being together with my wife, I realized that no amount of money in the world will make me happier or more successful. Maybe not in the eyes of others, but certainly in my own. I have met plenty of “successful” people when it comes to their careers. But I think most of them, if not all, have lost the bigger game in the long run. They might be great at what they do professionally, but have very little else to offer as people. And honestly, I have fallen into this trap myself, at least partially. I can barely talk about anything other than work. When I go on vacation, I rarely switch off and find myself thinking about work instead of enjoying the break. Outside of my job, I am a pretty boring person. That said, you have to work hard. Be honest and give your best in everything you do, whether it is your job, your relationships, or sports. Take responsibility for your life. Your decisions, your actions, and your willingness to put in the effort shape the person you become. Don’t look for shortcuts or try to play everyone around you to get on top. Professional success and the feeling of accomplishment that comes with it are very important for most men. But don’t become so busy making a living that you forget to make a life.
Revolut CEO Nik Storonsky: “The US is not that competitive. Europe is even less competitive.” “China is competitive.” “China is 9/9/6. Even if you are good in Europe, or in the US, how can you out-compete the people who work 9:00 to 9:00, six days a week?” “I started in a co-working space with 140 companies. Within 5 years, only 3 companies survived. They all worked on the weekends.” “Within 10 years, only 2 companies survived out of 140.” “Working weekends is a must if you want to survive. Purely statistically.”
15
13
121
7,849
lume.hl retweeted
Been doing a lot of self-reflection lately I've spent so much of my life fighting to build the life I've always wanted that I forgot how to switch off. I've gone from 7 to 8 figures and roundtripped it all to under $50k at least three times. So it's not really the fear of being poor that keeps me going. It's the fear of losing the freedom, the lifestyle, and everything I've spent years working so hard to build. The irony is that every time I reach a milestone I once dreamed of, the goalpost just moves further. What once felt like more than enough suddenly doesn't feel like enough anymore. Sometimes I wonder if I'll ever truly be satisfied, or if I'll just keep chasing the next number. I like to call it a prisoner of my own ambitions and I guess that's something I need to work on. Learning when to push, when to slow down, and how to appreciate what I've already built without constantly worrying about losing it.
53
16
384
23,878
lume.hl retweeted
my edge is mostly built via just showing up everyday and not giving up pretty much everyday since 2020 I have logged into CT, did the work, made the traders and did something of productive value for my portfolio on a day to day basis it isnt super exciting and I dont take a ton of traders, but you would be surprised how much edge you accumulate simply from being tapped in for an extended period of time it's a marathon not a sprint. Just do the work and get 1% better each day
14
16
301
8,586
lume.hl retweeted
Ansem made over $10m on his coin Maybe even more off side wallets Now he’s complaining saying it requires a lot to keep a token going Sir you have enough capital to push this back up, what happened to the buy backs and burns? He made the money, now he’s trying to blame us for his mistakes From 490m to 70m
it has become complete counter-consensus to be bullish onchain now, have never seen sentiment this bad & ive been here ~9 years crypto twitter has forgotten that it requires actual work on the builder side to make coins do well, so many traders complaining about lower ceilings on coins and not nearly enough people actually trying to build interesting protocols and/or to change that dynamic
141
43
532
82,530
Bill Gates is one of the only tech guys actually telling the truth about what a world with superintelligence will look like. It very obviously leads to human economic obsolescence. We can debate the timelines, but it's clear that on the current trajectory, for the vast majority of jobs, humans will not remain in the loop. Why would you hire a human at the cost of labour when you can hire an AI or humanoid thousands of times faster, smarter and cheaper at the cost of compute instead? Running 24/7, no sick days, no annual leave, no complaints... It's an employer's dream. The individual incentives all lead this way. At a macro level it's like a snake eating its own tail because aggregate demand across the economy will be nuked which means demand for goods and services sold by companies will decline with it in sectors where AI's are not net buyers. I don't think this will take 20 years. It's closer to 10 years. The world in 2035 will look nothing like the world today.
ビル・ゲイツ「これから20年間、世界は大混乱に陥る」 AIが全員を豊かにする前に訪れる「地獄の20年」――人間の仕事は完全に消滅する(2026年10月22日のインタビュー) 「豊かな未来が来る前に、人類は『20年間の大パニック』を生き残らなければならない」 世界を裏から見通す男ビル・ゲイツが、AIとロボットが完成する直前に訪れる「最も危険な20年間の過渡期」について明かした警告をわかりやすく👇 ・「今後20年間」は勝者と敗者に分かれて社会が大荒れになる AIが全人類を豊かにする天国が来る前に、これから約20年間は「猛烈な混乱の時代」が続くと断言。これまでの常識がガラガラと崩れ去り、仕事を奪われる負け組と、莫大な富を握る勝ち組に社会が真っ二つに引き裂かれます。 ・家づくりも農業も手術も「激安ロボット」が全部やる 特に中国などが莫大なお金を突っ込んで、器用に手足を動かす人間そっくりのロボットを猛スピードで開発しています。あと数年から10年もすれば、家を建てる大工仕事も、野菜を育てる農業も、医者の外科手術もすべてロボットがタダ同然のコストでこなすようになります。 ・人間の労働は「完全に不要」になり、誰も働けなくなる この開発を今すぐ世界中でストップさせない限り、人間が生活やお金のために働く仕組みそのものが完全に消滅します。問題は、全員が働かずに暮らせるゴールにたどり着くまでの「これからの20年間」、世界が耐えきれずに崩壊するリスクだとゲイツは冷徹に警告しています。 要するに、「『いずれAIとロボットが何でもタダ同然で作ってくれる時代が来るが、それまでの20年間は仕事が消滅して格差と大混乱で世界中が地獄のサバイバルになる。人間が働く必要が完全になくなるまでの大パニックをどう生き残るのか』とビル・ゲイツが衝撃の予告をしている」ということです。
Community note
この投稿はビル・ゲイツのThe Verge「Decoder」ポッドキャスト発言を大幅に誇張しています。ゲイツはAI移行期の混乱を懸念しつつ豊かさへの到達と管理・選択の重要性を述べており、「地獄の20年」や即時停止・崩壊の直接警告はありません。 theverge.com/podcast/101540… businessinsider.com/bill-gates-ai-… observer.co.uk/news/technolog…
19
4
73
11,649
lume.hl retweeted
timeline is so boring that we are debating on CRYPTO TWITTER who pays for the first date what part of the cycle is this
128
5
232
8,226
lume.hl retweeted
U have to have some kind of mental illness to survive crypto lol
96
26
364
9,604
lume.hl retweeted
you know what the worst part about this market is as someone that actually want other ppl to make money In 2024 (and earlier) people would post airdrop guides, alpha for projects to farm (and in 2025 similar for infofi), etc. People would use the protocol/tweet about it, get an airdrop, and the content creator & their community would all be happy now there’s basically nothing to safely farm onchain, probably a higher chance whatever new protocol you discover gets hacked (many examples), exit scammed (altura), or just don’t even airdrop (polymarket). Nobody wins and nobody writing guides anymore because there’s almost no money farming what a terrible time to be an actual product user
73
3
208
12,351
lume.hl retweeted
investing in 2024: buy @Portalcoin at 59M FDV, 15% TGE, no cliff, 12 month vest, unlimited ticket size get a day 1 Binance spot listing opens at 4B allocation not rugged, instantly claimable & sellable, instantly up 10x on your 15% unlock alone at TGE, price holds pretty strong over the next year can someone invent something to make this happen again?
50
1
173
17,479
This dump on ethereum:0xca14007eff0db1f8135f4c25b34de49ab0d42766 is vicious lol It already had this relentless down only PA after its pump one year ago...
25
1
363
21,731
lume.hl retweeted
I’m convinced 50-70% of jobs can already be replaced and be like 100x more efficient Majority of jobs are useless in current age, i hope we convert fast
JUST IN: Dutch government announces plans to eliminate 25,000 civil service jobs as it expands AI to replace administrative work.
54
36
727
53,304
lume.hl retweeted
My biggest mistake was showing my friends my X account. Now they keep telling me crypto is not a serious industry. Yesterday, I was on a call with two friends who are in the UK right now, building a startup. They have raised thousands of dollars through friends and family and investors. They used to trade NFTs with me back then. They asked, 'How's the crypto world right now? Show me your profile and how much you've grown.' I showed them, and they saw my feed. It was all about who should pay on a date 😭. They dropped dead laughing and said crypto is not a serious industry anymore.
85
3
159
2,447
bitcoin:native refuses to go below $80k, which makes me moderately bullish, at least for a short-term bounce It might be time for stocks to have a rebound too
23
163
5,444
lume.hl retweeted
Usually, when hyperliquid:native looks like that, a super bullish narrative or piece of news suddenly emerges to pump it. Obviously, HYPE is now 4x larger than it was at its January bottom, So pushing it higher on bullish news alone becomes increasingly difficult.
59
3
341
22,386