Net/Net: Short interest built hard after the June campaign. Tightly held float (management, institutions, Friedland, core retail) plus any/several of the below catalysts is the setup for the squeeze the non-retarded tip may be pointing at. Year-end can rhyme with last year’s move if the blitz lands. Not advice, just the sequence I see.
New Degens on the Block: what could possibly be behind
@retard3dinvst0r’s conviction on
$ABXX /
$ABXXF? He posted about a tip from an extremely “non-retarded” person and a position screenshot. Then followed-up with
@robert_ivanhoe’s clip talking up the company and has joined the X mudslinging fest with the short-and-distort crowd, with a thesis laying out how this goes to $100 with a giga squeeze. So far so good!
How is this going to $100, IMHO?
- It’s been several months since the company started audits and internal-control reviews aimed at refuting the fraud/wash-volume/non-customer narratives. Companies under short attack don’t usually go to costly audits, hire legal counsel and fewer still end up suing. From the tone of the 2Q26 call, it appears that we’re on a quiet period until findings hit the board, regulators and lawyers. This feels like some sort of blackout period, which explains the lack of insider buying(?).
- Nothing in this process looks existential: I don’t expect anything other than a clean bill of health, with maybe some governance/org tweaks and/or updates to the liquidity incentive programs. The LP tweaks are already evident from lower PM dominance in volumes, tighter precious-metals calendar spreads and more volume divergence across settlement dates.
- Once the audit is concluded, the company can go on offense. Core holders (RF, AJ, global financial infrastructure player, strategics, and the rest of the
#29ers fam) have not defected, some have doubled down at these bargain prices. Others are in the process or have already rebuilt their positions. Offensive can mean legal, MAS/CIRO follow-through, or simply the facts. We will see.
- Consequences? We hope! Singapore (SG) market rules are not soft. My preferred course of action is for
@MAS_sg regulators to squash the malfeasant market manipulation practices from taking hold of the narrative about the soundness/integrity of their financial markets. By taking forceful action against the clearly fraudulent allegations made by
@viceroyresearch and going after the individuals behind it (
@AIMhonesty,
@Gabe_Bernarde, et al) they can deliver a strong message. In SG this type of chicanery can land you behind bars, which is my wish for how this story should end. Should regulatory action or lawsuit discovery lead to the uncovering of collusion between hedge funds (here's looking at you
@AnsonGroupFunds) and the Viceroy research to fraudulently manipulate the stock, this could end up being a collateral gift for the
#MMTLP fam.
- News and product flow appears to have been deliberately held back. Late last year the company was hinting at doubling the contracts listed in 2026. We’re not close, so a product backlog seems to be forming. But, what’s the point of launching products when the FCM/Bank onboardings have been muted at least since Yongan? It’s best not let the competition know what’s going to hit them, now that it appears that the CME is taking a second look at these markets.
- Waiting for The One: ever since the 1Q26 call when the company dropped that a Tier Global Bank/FCM was committed to onboard, the need to enhance the clearinghouse risk bearing capacity by onboarding such a relevant Tier 1 FCM, with JPM-scale if not JPM itself (remember they moved their PM desk to SG) have continued to build. An onboarding schedule for a leading FCM is around 12 months: we’re approaching the anniversary of the CFTC’s FBoT designation, so we could be close. Fingers crossed!
- Mizuho and other China/EU FCMs onboarding should not be too far away. Mizuho has the largest LNG infrastructure lending book and no real method to hedge their risk: it’s no surprise that they started quoting Abaxx’ LNG prices on their LNG newsletters: BIG!
- Once “The One” is onboard, we can expect the global energy trading complex to (at last!) start to seriously dip their toes on Abaxx energy contract suite and for Abaxx to release the new contracts on the pipeline. This could lead to a blitz of product, further FCM onboardings, and operational upgrades meant to bury the short thesis (
#WinterDays?).
- Expanded Trading Hours: 22/5 trading so FCMs and the global energy trading complex can overlap Abaxx energy products with CME/ICE/TTF hours, a must for the Tier I FCM to deliver the goods.
- The short-and-distort campaign should’ve failed to halt onboardings. A Tier 1 FCM onboarding should upgrade the clearinghouse’s credit profile and open the door for real energy traders and utilities to test LNG/wind/solar contract suite. Physical LNG cargo to delivery should be the icing on the cake: some years ago (shortly after launch) there was talk about Bank/FCMs vying for who was going to be the first to take an LNG cargo to delivery. I believe a promise was made.
- What about MarketOS T+0 collateral at Abaxx Clearing: Personally, the de-emphasizing of the Tech angle (collateral damage from the short attack) was a bit of a disappointment in 2Q26, but completely understandable given the background noise. The first MarketOS license DD (mentioned in the 1Q26 call) should still be work-in-progress and is likely tied to the Tier 1. Remember the scale of Abaxx’ ambition: to launch T+0 USD MMF collateral to become the first Global Exchange clearing energy/commodity trades with its own institutional-grade, yield-bearing stablecoin-style instrument via the Singapore Alta partnership, built on technology ready for 22/5 (eventually 24/7) real-time settlement!! Also remember that the MAS has a dog in the global fight to host the markets of the future: we expect them to be constructive and engaged.
- The much-discussed Singapore and Nasdaq listings should open the roster of institutional investors able to buy the stock: they won’t be the only ones that want the OTC chapter closed. While a SG listing is easier; a bigger board is a when, not if, once the company is ready to bear the additional cost and lines up the accounting/reporting ducks.
Again, this IS NOT investment advice, do your own due diligence.
#29ers @abaxx_tech $ABXX.TO