A quick thread to give some context to the high school development model 1/ Not all schools that get players drafted are good at developing talent. Some just recruit better. This thread breaks down a model I built to separate recruiting strength from development ability.

Wake Forest has walked onto the field, named the score, and obliterated their opponents for a month straight. Their only loss is to the #1 team in the nation. “Eh, throw them at #14.” Complete joke.

NEW: UCLA head coach Bob Chesney on his goals for the 2026 season and whether they've changed: "Goals are for people that want to win once. Process and standards are for people that want to win longterm." (via @3xOptionShow) on3.com/news/bob-chesney-on-…

Northwestern just had the defending national champions sweating because David Braun is one hell of a coach. Braun spent more than a decade coaching at the FCS, DII, and NAIA levels. Two of Braun's best players tonight came from those levels - Griffin Wilde (South Dakota State) and Luke Dehnicke (Minnesota-Duluth). The coach who beat him, Curt Cignetti, also spent years at the non-FBS level. There are so many talented players and coaches at lower levels just waiting for a shot. That's part of what makes college football so great.

I understand the decision Jack Swarbrick made at the time. But it’s now clear Notre Dame can play an ACC schedule AND its Big Ten rivals. We need to pressure the ADs (on both sides) to bring back our rivalries, history, and traditions. September should always feature MSU, michigan, and Purdue. That’s who we are; it’s what most of us grew up on. Notre Dame’s rivals have been like our conference partners in lieu of a conference. Our annual schedule should feature: 1: usc 2: Navy 3: michigan 4: Michigan State 5: Purdue 6: Pitt 7: Boston College 8: Stanford 9: Miami That leaves you 3 games to schedule whoever.

They’ll upset one if not two of those teams.

I wonder if it's possible for the NFL to oversaturate itself. Maybe not. But at some point, making the season 365 days long, putting games on every night, inventing new holidays to put games on (Thanksgiving eve!), placing teams in foreign countries ... is it ever too much?

The Vikings offense just got a lot more dangerous

"The greatest value of including analytics in team-building decisions isn't to find hidden gems but to avoid truly bad decisions." -R. Vollman in STAT SHOT

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There are roughly 275,000 high school senior football players in the U.S. each year. There are ONLY 32 five-stars in each class. That’s it. So the odds of becoming a five-star are roughly 1 in 8,600 per class. And historically, five-stars have a ~65% NFL Draft rate. Some people act like Rivals (and this industry) hands out five-stars like mini Milky Ways on Halloween, not even close. We give out 32. Period. It's finite. They are earned. Nobody in our industry cares which player or which team gets them. We care that the hit rate stays elite. And trust us … nobody loved a five-star more than Nick Saban. And he is the greatest college football coach ever. It’s a privilege to earn a five-star. It’s been that way for 30 years, and it will be for the next 30.

Washington is consistently overrepresented in the NFL Draft relative to its recruiting profile. They’re not built on recruiting dominance but they have been efficient at giving the ones they do recruit chances in the NFL. By my model: • +26% over expectation when isolating for elite prospects. • +36% over expectation across the full recruiting class. Washington isn’t defined by recruiting rankings — it’s defined by conversion efficiency for high school prospects. For prospects, a Washington Huskies offer represents a real opportunity to outperform expectation and reach the NFL.

NEW: Michigan Five-Star Plus+ EDGE signee Carter Meadows reacts to Michigan hiring Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, via @SWiltfong_: “I’m feeling good. It was a long process. We waited for the outcome and based off what I know about coach Whittingham, I’m confident.” Read: on3.com/rivals/news/recruits…

Iowa is consistently overrepresented in the NFL Draft. Under Kirk Ferentz, they’ve built one of the most efficient development programs in college football — producing NFL draft picks without elite recruiting classes. By my model: • +57% over expectation when isolating blue-chip recruits • +54% over expectation across the full recruiting class Iowa has not been a high level recruiter but there is no doubt they are consistently overrepresented in the NFL draft. For prospects, an Iowa offer should be seen as a big opportunity.

Why don’t teams go for two here?

Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea talks about what he told his team when they didn’t make the CFP: “The message was, 'We had control over this ... and we did not do enough.' I think it's really important that we take ownership. ... The world expects us to be disappointed right now, but what we are is excited [for the bowl game]."

Clark Lea did not blame anyone besides themselves with CFP. Says they had chances at Alabama and Texas “That’s no one’s fault except our own. We had our opportunities and we didn’t do enough. We are not victims in this process. Our ownership is in coming up short…” @chrislee70

REPORT: Michigan State is expected to hire former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald, per @freep👀 on3.com/news/report-michigan…

Arizona State is one of the most overlooked NFL-development programs — and Kenny Dillingham has kept that pipeline alive despite major turmoil and sanctions. My NFL Development Model ranks ASU 13th nationally, with a strong +22% overperformance vs expected draft representation. The Sun Devils quietly produce pros at key playmaking positions: 🔸 RB: 4th 🔸 CB: 7th Even through instability, they continue to turn talent into draft picks — a sign of real developmental strength. A standout example: Rachaad White (3rd round), one of the best recent RB success stories to come through Tempe.

Virginia Tech is one of the most quietly elite NFL-development programs in college football. They haven’t had the on-field success recently… but the player development pipeline is still top tier. My NFL Development Model ranks the Hokies 4th nationally, with a massive +37% overperformance vs expected draft representation — one of the highest margins in the country. Where VT especially shines: 🔸 WR: 13th 🔸 DL: 7th 🔸 CB: 6th They have turned under-the-radar recruits into NFL players. Examples of that include: Dorian Strong (3rd round, 2025) and Divine Diablo (3rd round, 2021). With the recent hire of James Franklin; someone who has been highly efficient at NFL development in his time at Penn state it is a attractive combination. Virginia Tech can develop pros at an elite level — regardless of the win-loss column.

I intend to highlight some surprising schools that have been more efficient at NFL development the first is - Stanford: One of College Football’s Most Underrated NFL Talent Developers Stanford currently ranks 9th overall in my NFL Developmental Model — despite recruiting nowhere near the volume of blue-chip talent that the traditional powerhouses do. They Cardinal have outperformed their expected NFL Draft representation by +5%. Where they really shine is at the skill positions: Tight Ends — 2nd nationally Wide Receivers — 11th Cornerbacks — 10th Safeties — 13th Even with recent on-field struggles, Stanford has has the potential to still be a premium destination for NFL development. Recent players such as Paulson Adebo and Michael Wilson have found success at the school. In spite of recent on field and recruiting struggles Stanford can still be one of the most efficient NFL development hubs in the country, especially for players at key perimeter and pass-game positions.