Past/future founder, big weekly chart guy, author, love design & tech. Always learning
NY
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Last 2 cents:
When things felt difficult for the past 2 weeks but you saw indexes at highs, and you log onto X and have a bunch of people only sharing hindsight setups it makes you think something is wrong with you when in reality something was wrong with the market.
This happens over and over it’s the market cycle. If you think this type of distribution is going to disappear like nothing happened that is very very unlikely.
Today confirmed just how weak the market was and the weakest markets have the biggest bounces.
After today we are going to have very convincing bounces and they will suck you in before another day like today shows up.
There are going to be big bounces, and you’re going to scroll X and see a bunch of people sharing winning trades.
Dont underestimate how hard it is to resist that. Don’t take this action lightly and on the next bounce think it’s time to make $ back and let your guard down.
Most importantly do not believe what you see on X and think someone else has a secret and they are killing it… why can’t you?
Get rid of the make it back mentality because if you think you are in a hole now it will only get deeper.
Be safe…. have a plan… keep your guard up. Know what needs to happen before the market deserves your risk… it’s not going to be a bounce.
I’ll add my worthless 2 cents:
The way the market has been acting for the past few weeks is not healthy. There’s moments where the action gets good and it looks like it may be risk on but it doesn’t last long.
This type of action isn’t sustainable and is how the market acts near the end of uptrends.
I wouldn’t short the market here because we can keep grinding higher for longer than I can imagine… timing is very difficult… plus I’m a bull at heart I don’t like to go short anyway.
Forgot who said it but “the market can act irrational longer than you can remain solvent” or something.
Things can always change and we see a big improvement in the health of the market where it actually starts acting like it can sustain a big new trend but this action that we’ve experienced over the last month is nowhere near healthy.
I’m not complaining either. Been trading a long time…. this is just how market cycles work over and over again.
I would love to see risk on action that sticks and changes my opinion but I’m aware that how things have been acting is what you see near the ends of trends.
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Nick Schmidt retweeted
Magically long on the up days and magically short on the down days. No one's buying your bullshit.
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This is what I’ve thought too. I don’t see a future where the cybersecurity companies aren’t fully reliant on if the labs let them use their best models.
I missed a big move too because of these intrusive thoughts
There is no way on earth Palo Alto networks will protect me from an AGI hacker. I expect the labs to start. to launching cybersecurity products soon. There’s a lot of synergy there because they get to make the threat and the solution at the same time. Everyone will have to pay protection money.
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🙏🏼 I try not to identify as bull or bear but if I had to I'm way closer to a permabull than a perma-bear.
I just know when things are off I've learned to be quick to go to cash it keeps me afloat.
Most of my positions I tossed 2 weeks ago are still down 30% since. If the market invites me back in I much rather buy back and deploy cash instead of hoping or waiting for positions to go back up.
This market is very tough we are all in it together like you said.... and when things are tough im focused on surviving it out until they get easier... for me that means being aggressive with my defense.
I value you're posting because you are actually sincere, honest (transparent both ways), so I think it will be telling/informative if/when you flip long. As you said yourself, you're not married to being a perma bear through this.
We will all get through it one way or the other!
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