Pollster @EchelonInsights, married an Iowa girl, here for the Realignment, author of Party of the People — “the book that predicted the 2024 election.”
Virginia
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Coming November 4: The paperback edition of Party of the People, with a new epilogue on the 2024 election.
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To the extent Democrats have done better in 2026 than 2018 it’s in leaning to the conspiratorial, anti-system tendencies in the electorate (Epstein, corruption) rather than the foo-foo democracy/norms stuff that never mattered outside the Beltway.
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I would not say the Republicans have been helped by the price of gas going up 75 cents from early July through late September.
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Prime example of what @adamkovac talks about of bandwagon groups running ads on the #10 ranked issue in the hopes of stealing credit for a victory that had nothing to do with them.
Literally the playbook The Groups™️ run every cycle.
First ad I've seen so explicitly targeting the obvious financial conflicts around the Trump administration's AI accelerationism
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House, Senate, and generic polls agree on an environment that’s roughly D+8.5.
In seat terms that’s a wave, not a tsunami, imo.
At this point the two possibilities are a wave — or 2020 all over again.
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June 27, 2024 Democrats enter the chat
Mediaite: Nate Silver Says He’s Never Seen “Worse Vibes From a Party” Than 2026 GOP
Pollster Nate Silver delivered a scathing assessment of the Republican Party ahead of November’s midterm elections, declaring that he’s never seen “worse vibes from a party” than those surrounding the GOP in 2026.
mediaite.com/media/podcasts/…
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Patrick Ruffini retweeted
The new NYT graphics on early votes actually does a great job showing why tracking this stuff is STUPID.
For example, in 2022, the Iowa EVs were D+16, but final electorate was R+8. In 2024, the EVs were R+1, and the final electorate was R+10. BOTH resulted in R+12/13.
POINTLESS
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This is why I have to laugh about these analyses of hard dollars being so much more efficient on TV.
Do you know how much it costs to raise hard dollars and how hard it is?
73% of your campaign donations go to consultants and vendors; only 13% goes toward ads. This is 4x the cut consultants made 20 years ago. Important work by @JakeMGrumbach and Adam Bonica on the capture of the Democratic Party by consultants.
newrepublic.com/article/2163…
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Patrick Ruffini retweeted
TEXAS IPEV DAY 3 UPDATE
The third day has consistently gotten redder - the electorates in the tracked counties are well bluer than 2024 but by less so than the first two days (D+11 instead of D+12)
Most of the big counties are keeping their leans relative to 2024: Dallas/Travis/Harris are all running an electorate 8-10 pts bluer than 2024.
Potential EV frontloading in Tarrant for Dems - their turnout advantage has dropped fairly precipitously.
Dark MAGA land is starting to catch up. Deaf Smith, Potter, Randall, Hardin all had day 3 that was *redder* than the day 3 in 2024. Turnout is still horrible there though.
Indian/Pakistani precincts in Collin/Fort Bend are seeing elevated Asian turnout - this is perhaps the Bo French backlash.
Overall EV is more Latino and younger.
Still lots to go, but Democrats are still in the driver's seat. If I had all the rural counties to add in, the recalled electorate would probably be Trump +7 or so. Eminently doable for a Dem to get 7 points of persuasion in this environment - but we can't directly measure that.
I will try to add more counties if they can get me data in time. Next EV space will be on Friday to talk about latest results.
Interactive here:
claude.ai/artifact/QSaAiFYUj…
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the problem is you
refreshing this hellsite over and over and over for the latest polls
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It’s actually extremely unusual for LV to be to the left of RV, like it’s never happened before even in Dem waves.
Even post-realignment, Dems win most low-income renters, the prime dropoff voter group.
Not all likely-voter indicators are pulling in the same direction. Our national Post-ABC-Ipsos poll found Democrats leading by 13 among certain/already voters but by 4 among 2022/24 voters. It makes sense - Trump's losses concentrated w/low-turnout groups (Hispanic, young)
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The solution to partisan polarization really is to care about politics less. Like, call your Congressman if there’s a bill that affects you, otherwise touch grass, leave it to the professionals.
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Hate to say it, but there will need to be verification of new firms entering the averages, involving live walkthroughs of survey platforms or handing over raw data files.
There’s very little reason for an X account to have a polling firm and no reason for them to be anonymous.
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Polling isn’t hard to enter, but it’s an extremely niche professional service. If you’re going to make it, you’re going to need to have a pre-existing reputation, either as an institution or in politics.
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