America First Economist for @VinceCoglianese, @Heritage, @Comm4Prosperity, @Richzeoli, and @RichValdes; VAMO Podcast spoti.fi/3Mhcf8Y w/ @cmt_anthony
Washington, DC
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"Student loans have been a millstone around the neck of many college grads for years, but the Department of Education is enacting reforms to help prevent more young people from falling into this debt trap..."
Latest w/ @SarahPPerry in @townhallcom:
townhall.com/columnists/ej-a…
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Housing permits fell in Sep, -0.2% M/M and -3.0% Y/Y, while starts tanked, -5.2% M/M and -7.4% Y/Y, and completions rose 2.0% from Aug but were down a whopping 14.0% Y/Y; folks just can't afford today's prices and today's interest rates...
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ADP: private payroll growth slowed considerably for the 4 weeks ending Oct 3, down to 18.5k/wk or ~74k/mo, the first slowdown in job growth since mid Aug:
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You first - give away 100% of your own wealth so we know you're serious:
United Airlines CEO calls for national wealth tax, inheritance taxes approaching 100% foxbusiness.com/fox-news-tra…
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Homebuilder sentiment tanks, down to a reading of 29 for Oct which is even below the pandemic low of Apr '20 and the lowest print since Jun '12; present sales, expected sales, and traffic of buyers all declined; people simply can't afford today's prices at today's interest rates:
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Unsurprisingly, US imports from the Mid East have plummeted this year while ones from Asia are growing:
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Chinese imports of hybrid vehicles to Europe continue surging as European automakers slowly lose marketshare in their own backyards:
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Interest on the national debt in the last fiscal year was a stratospheric $1.360 trillion, which is ~48% of all personal income taxes collected during that same period; it's the 3rd largest line item in the budget, behind only the Social Security Administration and HHS...
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Federal gov't ran a deficit just under $2 trillion in the last fiscal year (ended Sep 30) w/ tax receipts up $169 billion, but outlays up $386 billion - headed in the wrong direction:
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Fiscal year closed w/ a $27 billion deficit in Sep, compared to a $198 billion surplus in Sep '25; tax receipts were up $14 billion but outlays grew $239 billion; that was partly due to some Aug outlays falling in Sep this year b/c of how the calendar lined up:
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The manufacturing recovery cont'd in Sep w/ industrial production up 0.7% M/M and 2.2% Y/Y, fastest annual increase in 4 yrs and closing in on record high; capacity utilization also cont'd marching higher, up 1.2 percentage points Y/Y:
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Either dishonest or ignorant: Ukraine has reduced Russian diesel exports roughly 90% from ~1 million barrels/day to ~100k, depending on source data; anyone who thinks that kind of supply shock won't affect prices doesn't understand econ 101...
h/t @Rory_Johnston
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Export prices are zooming higher, up 2.2% M/M in Sep (~30% annualized!) and 11.6% Y/Y - last month, both import and export price indices had their fastest annual increases since Jul '22, as agricultural export prices in particular accelerated sharply in Sep:
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As the Fed looks at the inflation data, it appears less and less to be an energy shock, but it is still fundamentally just that - an energy shock:
High energy prices are pushing up countless other prices, especially on imports b/c most of the world has been more affected by the energy shock than the U.S. - import prices rose 1.1% M/M in Sep and 8.1% Y/Y (worst since Jul '22) as even non-fuel imports rose 0.7% M/M, 6.0% Y/Y:
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High energy prices are pushing up countless other prices, especially on imports b/c most of the world has been more affected by the energy shock than the U.S. - import prices rose 1.1% M/M in Sep and 8.1% Y/Y (worst since Jul '22) as even non-fuel imports rose 0.7% M/M, 6.0% Y/Y:
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Yikes: look where we were back in Feb, nearly at zero; inflation hadn't merely come down - it was dead; now it's ripping higher b/c of Iran and Ukraine...
🇺🇸 Truflation Daily US CPI is 3.09% YoY today, 🔼 +0.16%.🇺🇸
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