I’ll spell it out explicitly one last time. Everyone thinks Trump wants balanced trade. He does not. He wants to force allies to stop trading with China. Completely. Zero inbound supply. Because it’s not just because of American jobs. It’s a proactive move to slow down Chinas industrial rise. Everything is downstream of this. Reserve currency status. The ability to address fiscal debt. It’s a crazy risk because China has a vote. It’s a crazy risk because you are forcing Europe to commit seppeku because they have very little leverage or say in the matter. It’s a crazy risk because Xi might bomb the fabs in Taiwan and the world doesn’t get AGI. It’s a crazy risk because China knows how financialized we are and will dump bonds and equities to drive anger towards trump. But it also has benefits if it works. If your allies can’t trade with China there is no near peer competitor to worry about. That has a ton of benefits. Just look at what happened after WW2/USSR collapse when American was the last man standing. Hegemony. Trumps advisors like Miran believe that you can coerce your allies to pay for your security umbrella in the form of buying longer dated treasuries. This removes the overhangs of the debt load while allowing you to pump markets in time for midterms. If Mexico can’t import from China then you solved the fentanyl crisis because they won’t have precursors. More importantly by establishing a tolerance for risk the level of fear you can instill in cartels is an order of magnitude higher. “Shit if they risked WW3 they won’t think twice about droning Sinaloa. “ This same “logic” applies to the Middle East. Now I will repeat for the 100x that this is not advocacy. I’m only telling you guys what the people in power believe. And I’m telling you that what happens next if I’m right will come down to how Xi wants to fight. He can go gloves off or glove on. There are real constraints as I have outlined in prior tweets. But there is a plan and therefore the tolerance for market pain is way way higher than you think. Because first you need Europe to be willing to commit economic seppuku. And they won’t want to (rightly). So Trump will crush them economically until they cry uncle. And then they still won’t want to and he’s going to threaten to defang NATO. And then they still won’t want to and he will withdraw swap lines. Or a lot more likely, he will do it all very forcefully and all at once to maximize leverage. Now you’ll rightly ask… why wasn’t this messaged better? Why have midwits like Lutnik on the team? Because you are attempting to execute a reckless gambit where the big variables are not what the tariffs rates are. Or if you tariff penguins. Or if the person sounds dumb on TV. Non of that matters. What matters is - will Japan capitulate quickly and agree to buy a large amount of treasuries? Will Saudi capitulate quickly with your B2 bombers waiting in Diego Garcia to bomb Iran? Will China invade Taiwan? Many of you think everyone around Trump is retarded. I get it. You hate the guy and everything he stands for. But I will say this until I’m blue in the face. Bessant, and even Miran, have higher IQs than most if not all of you. They thought through the second order effects. Believe me. If I, a dumb TMT L/S bro thought this far ahead, they certainly did too. Which means they warned Trump how risky this was and how deeply irrational it is if you planned to eventually cut a deal with China. Therefore you have to assume Trump heard the risks and said “fuck it we ball” anyways. Economic Blitzkrieg. That’s what we’re seeing. And it’s only the start.

Break out of the matrix anon. Your bloodline is relying on you to escape the permanent underclass 😉

Look at me Kaitlan, I’m the captain now

I was assured this couldn’t possibly happen 😉 We’re still early. Mid next year is going to be a bloodbath domestically. Sooner internationally.

Random update for the few who care: March -> July w/ Reta + Tesa = Twinkified July -> Oct w/ Test + Gh = Recomped and hitting new PRs weekly Kind of wild how effective this stuff is. Energy level off the charts too (Ofc massive swings in water weight and InBody imperfect measure) March ‘26 vs July ‘26 vs Oct ‘26:

lol lmao 😉

Alternative option. If you’re a foreign hacker and you steal from Americans we will use unreleased frontier models to track you down and we will send Delta to black-bag you anywhere you may be hiding. If you’re in North Korea we will drone strike you. If you’re in Beijing we will poison you with radioactive isotopes. There will be no trial. There will be no public dog & pony show. There will be a single snapshot of you in the Delta chopper enroute to a black site that we will release on the Dark Web and then you’ll never be heard from again. Thank you for coming to my TED talk 🫡

@TMTLongShort big day ahead since this just dropped 👀👀👀 Peter Thiel: The Real Danger of AI Isn't What You Think piped.video/H9Bdv3t5VtQ?is=bzfC… via @YouTube

this was the gameplan

To be clear this is the only path forward if you believe that AI will do what the maxis think it will do. There is no other path. None. Every other option ends with the guys at the labs behind bars and the datacenters a smoking heap of silicon. You need to monetize AI by extracting economic rent from the rest of the world to pay for the knowledge worker transition and you need to do so while hiding behind the might of the U.S. military. The French are rioting over a year of retirement you think they’ll take kindly when you nuke entire industries? You think you’re safe when the Indian government is looking for someone to blame for the fact that millions of IT workers are economically obsolete. “Yeah don’t worry ser, the scorpion anti-venom vaccine is on the way and will arrive in 4-7 years” You want to cure cancer? You’re gonna have to nuke knowledge work. You want to nuke knowledge work? You’re gonna have to find someone to pay for smoothing out the pain by people who vote and own guns. Now @LukeGromen is correct to highlight that this has profound effects for assets as sovereigns scramble desperately for liquidity when the knowledge worker nuke goes off (next year, imho)…. But luckily for all you mofos the admin has taken unprecedented steps to hijack access to the two gaiting input for all this shit globally and that’s energy and compute. This is the realpolitik before the abundance - welcome to the thunderdome 🫡

Resurfacing this within the context of imminent hyperscaler capital raises 🫡

I told you escalation was inevitable. Regime change is the only acceptable outcome.

SemiAnalysis buys Citrini and immediately starts investigating what’s the bottleneck restricting supply of women in SF

Probably well intentioned. Idgaf tho the end state is Americans will be prioritized come hell or high water. It’s the only path forward that doesn’t end in data-centers getting Molotov cocktailed. The sooner the guys at the labs come to terms with this the better.

Polling is broken. Republican sweep 🧹