#1 ITM Put Sell Spotter. Options flow. The Pain Trade Is Lower © whop.com/the-trenches-4/ theoptionsnomad.substack.com
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If this is the case then why did Smart $ sell off so much of the ai complex?
Smart $ is always the first to know. They knew the numbers would be good and yet look where we are now.
So what do they buy back and when is now the question.
“As of June 30, 2026, we hadraised an aggregate of $141.1 billion of capital and had cash and cash equivalents of $112.4 billion and short- term investments of $19.3 billion”
I think Anthropic might be okay for a little while tbh.
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The Options Nomad retweeted
Since 1962, the S&P has averaged a 13.8% drawdown at some point in the June-Dec window during mid-term election years.
Currently, the S&P has seen just a 4.5% drawdown, which would be the 2nd smallest drawdown in that period. Stronger into the election = weaker post-election?
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Lol.
Good for my Samsung shares, bad for entire semis industry. DRAM so fucked.
Daishin Securities
CSPs and AI labs: CSPs and AI labs had requested the development of lower-stack HBM products, such as 4-high and 6-high configurations, for use in low-end inference products. Those plans now appear to have been shelved, with 8-high once again emerging as the minimum stack height.
NVIDIA: Rubin’s specifications have changed amid base die supply constraints and requests from customers prioritizing bandwidth over cost efficiency. The original plan called for a mix of 8-high and 12-high HBM, but the 8-high option appears to have been dropped. For Rubin Ultra, scheduled for release in 2027, multiple architectural variants are currently undergoing tape-out. Initial versions are expected to use the highest-specification 8-high HBM4, while subsequent versions are expected to adopt either 8-high or 12-high HBM4E.
AMD: AMD is expected to use a mix of 8-high and 12-high HBM4 in its 2027 products. One notable development is the upcoming MI450, which is expected to increase the number of HBM stacks within the CoWoS package to 12, delivering 288GB of HBM4. The increase from eight to 12 HBM stacks per CoWoS package is a positive development for HBM content over the medium to long term.
OpenAI and Anthropic: OpenAI is expected to adopt 12-high HBM4, while Anthropic is expected to use 8-high HBM4.
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The real reason all of this is going down is because the carry trade is unwinding.
Don’t ask me how I know, just trust me
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Some reason options flow people are ignoring all the bearish flow for Dec 2027 and 2028 that has been happening for the last 2 weeks.
Strange.
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Dude elon can just wait for all these companies to fucking blow up and then buy out the shit from bankruptcy why the fuck would he pay any premium?
Cope
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Good luck fading Simon Russo btw.
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$LGN $STRL $CAT spear heading ai data center construction buildout, with these charts, is super bullish btw. The way the just die off the highs with no bid.
Wowowowow the bull market is only 1.5yrs old
Smart money definitely didnt know about ai over 10 years ago.
Smart money names their price and accumulates across time and high volatility is always the exit for smart money.
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$STRL’s chart is telling us a lot right now…. What a blowoff that name had.
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This ends well
South Korean retail investors are once again taking on massive amounts of leverage.
According to Korean media reports, they made net purchases of approximately $300 million across 14 single-stock leveraged products linked to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix between October 1 and 23.
They are also taking on substantial leverage in the U.S. stock market, reportedly making net purchases of $3.54764 billion in the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares ETF (SOXL), which seeks to deliver three times the daily return of a U.S. semiconductor index.
biz.chosun.com/stock/stock_g…
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StanChart: AI capex is expected to become more reliant on debt.. from 25% this year to 40% in 2027
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South Korea’s KOSPI is down 41% from its 52-week high, while Nifty 50 is down 14%.
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An often overlooked aspect of the Dot Com Crash is that stocks not tied to the Internet and mobile buildout did quite well for a long stretch.
From the end of 1999 to the end of 2001, the S&P 500 Equal Weight index not only didn’t fall, it was up 5%. $SPY $RSP
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