Tracking the AI frontier: models, agents, research, leaks & pre-release signals. I test, investigate and build.

Tips, leaks & collabs → DM
After going through this whole thread and some of Anthropic's own docs, Dario's thinking is actually simple to follow: Whoever is in front gets to shape the rules. Step back, and the companies that care least set the pace. So Anthropic stays in front, and wants the government holding the brakes for everyone instead of pulling its own. Meanwhile: Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable 5.5... Full speed. And honestly? Good. I want the best model, as fast as possible, with the highest limits possible. Shipping is the only argument that actually moves this field. My issue is the framing. "If we don't build it, someone worse will!!! ☠️" can justify any release, forever (on whatever terms Anthropic decides). Just say it: you're racing because you want to win, and because users want what's next.
Thank you for this, @_NathanCalvin. I appreciate and am a fan of the investigative work you’ve done on behalf of AI safety and believe your comments are coming from a constructive, honest place, and that it benefits the public to have people whose job is to scrutinize the actions of frontier AI companies. I think something would be wrong if companies of the size of Anthropic didn’t get harshly criticized basically every day; strong antibodies against corporate power are a healthy feature of a free society, and especially so when issues of the gravity of the one we’re facing are at play. I also do agree that some of the examples you cite were mistakes by Anthropic. That said, I disagree with the thrust of your post. At the core, a good fraction of the things you criticize are consequences of Anthropic’s basic theory of change that we have held for many years. Our strategy has always been what I’ve called the “race to the top” — by showing how it’s possible to build the technology responsibly, we can raise the bar for the entire industry. The forces that drive the race to the top are hugely more effective if the company practicing them is at the frontier; that’s one lesson I’ve learned repeatedly. And looking at that strategy as a whole, I’m proud of our track record and stand by it. I believe that if we take a list of things that Anthropic did in the past year that were pro-safety and commercially costly to us, they far outweigh the list you’ve made, while at the same time I also disagree with some of the items on your list. Here are some things Anthropic has done, in the same period you’ve cited (the last year), which were very costly to us commercially while having strong safety benefits: 1. We played a key role in SB53 (and other state laws), at a time when doing so was politically perilous to the company and AI regulation was very unpopular. We in fact argued for a stronger version of SB53 than was ultimately passed; there were a lot of stakeholders and we were not the limiting factor in the strength of the bill that was passed. 2. We have very strong biological safeguards on our models, because we’ve seen concerning results in bio uplift trials and even seen and blocked potential attempts to misuse our models for bioweapons (as seen in our threat intelligence report from a few weeks ago). This is a very serious threat that we want to have zero tolerance for. But having very low false negatives means having significant false positives (despite months of effort on our part to improve the classifiers), enough so that biologists joke about how restrictive our classifiers are, and competitors sometimes sell against us by touting their more permissive bio capabilities. This has been very painful to us in an area where we care a lot about supporting an ecosystem of Claude users (biomedical science; and it is particularly frustrating to me as a biologist), but it’s the right thing to do and we intend to keep doing it. 3. Similarly, we first had Mythos-class models in February but didn’t make them generally available until June (when we had stronger cyber safeguards in place). We only offered them to a limited set of partners in order to focus on cyberdefense. It would have been much more economically rational to simply release the model to everyone. We likely sacrificed a significant chunk of a several-month model lead. But because of this, many companies secured their cyber infrastructure before the deluge of widely available cyber-capable models. Of course there are ways it could have gone better or been run better, but this was what we were aiming to do. 4. I advocated forcefully and publicly, in my essay Policy on the AI Exponential in June of this year, for the government to have the power to block model releases. Back then this was still outside or maybe on the edge of the Overton window, though I understand the window has moved since then. We were attacked intensely for this. 5. I don’t want to re-ignite conflict, but the events of February 2026 are a strong example. It is clear that our public stance could have seriously damaged the company’s future. 6. We’ve continued to advocate for export controls on chips and chipmaking equipment to China, because we think it allows democracies to negotiate from a position of strength on AI safety agreements. We’ve done this despite problems it’s created for us with industry partners who hold very different views and on whom we are very dependent. 7. As far as I’m aware we were the first, and still only, frontier company to restrict the sale of AI services to PRC-controlled companies, including those operating through third countries (otherwise a major loophole). We’ve therefore forfeited significant short-term business to prevent fueling AI platforms and applications that would help the CCP’s military and intelligence services. We are also cracking down on distillation; generally, distillation is not a major threat to us commercially, but like chip exports it has concerning national security and safety implications, so we expend significant energy and company resources to address it. 8. As you mentioned, we’ve put out a lot of reports, announcements, long model cards, public advocacy, etc, all trying to inform the public about the risks of AI. These involve a level of detail and effort that would be implausible for a purely profit-maximizing company. 9. Just this week, we announced we were putting 5% (and possibly more over time) of the company into a public benefit fund. All of these decisions came with very substantial costs to us. To be fair, those that involved holding back or restricting access to frontier capabilities also had a broader cost — for example, the public might otherwise have benefitted from faster progress in biology, so I am not saying that our decisions were without tradeoffs — but they were not driven by profit-seeking. For each decision, you can come up with ulterior motives that could have driven us — I think it is a general truth that any decision, on any topic, can always be portrayed as a nefarious scheme. But most of those end up being pretty farfetched or don’t fully make sense if you actually examine them closely. For example, it is deeply implausible that it would be a shrewd business move to block a large swath of research biology in order to do the work ourselves and compete with our customers; we expect the benefit to the ecosystem to greatly exceed the work Anthropic does itself, and for the two to complement each other. It is not in Anthropic’s interest to be perceived as unfriendly to biologists. Our Life Sciences Verification Program, which gives vetted biology professionals access to our models, also refutes this idea. Of course, a different set of people will see this and make a different criticism: that Anthropic shouldn't be making decisions about who gets access to what in the first place. I agree, in the sense that ideally the government would be making these decisions, and that’s why we advocate for regulation. But for now we are forced to make them, and enabling bioterrorism isn’t a better option. I think that even if I conceded every item in your list, I would happily hold up mine next to it; I don’t think it’s a close call. That is of course partly subjective and different things are important to different people. Maybe one way you could object is that several of the items above relate to AI misuse and not loss-of-control; if you think the latter is much more important than the former, that might change your calculus. But this is not Anthropic’s view — we view both as serious issues. You can also disagree with our decisions, as many have, but they are consistent. But I also disagree with at least some of your list. Several items don’t represent a deviation from Anthropic’s strategy or values at all, once we postulate the “race to the top” strategy that requires being a frontier AI company. Your items 1-4 are all simply examples of what it means to compete at the frontier, and we stand by them, both in the sense that they are transparently ordinary things to do as part of that strategy, and that we stand by the strategy as a whole. To be fair, there are important questions worth confronting (and that we are confronting) about what to do when the AI-driven acceleration gets fast enough that it is hard for safety to keep up. We are nearing that point and that’s what’s driving some of our thinking about “pacing.” But 1-4 are actions taken before that point and should be perfectly expected based on Anthropic’s strategy as a company. Of course it is possible to disagree with that strategy, but that’s a more fundamental disagreement that you could have had any time over the last few years. I agree we could have handled your items 7, 8, and 9 better. All fall into the category of “rhetoric or policy communication that wasn’t carefully written or resulting from fast-changing circumstances not propagating from one team to another fast enough.” This kind of thing happens a lot in large organizations (Anthropic is over 5,000 people), and doesn’t even necessarily represent a failure or mistake of any single person. I am of course the CEO, and I take responsibility. The volume of communication from Anthropic is enormous and if these are the worst examples, I think we’re frankly doing pretty well, though I will continue to work hard to make sure we do even better. Your 5th item (the change to our RSP) is the most substantive item, and people can debate this, but I think that the old, more rigid RSP created a lot of situations where we were technically required to do something that required a lot of effort but in retrospect wasn’t very important for safety, as well as not covering some of the most important things. Our current RSP’s focus on transparency brought things like risk reports and roadmaps, and its emphasis on independent external review laid the groundwork for even more intensive embedded evaluation, all of which I think have been valuable in driving a race to the top. In the original announcement in September 2023, we described the RSP as an “early iteration that we [would] build on” and said that “rapid iteration…will almost certainly be necessary.” I understand that changing plans is always a move that creates justifiable scrutiny — I just don’t think we ever represented that we wouldn’t do so. Relating to your 6th item (having an FCF in addition to our RSP), I know our intent is to meet the letter and spirit of our regulatory obligations (via our FCF) while also remaining able to experiment with more novel approaches to risk management that go beyond what the law currently requires (via our RSP). I promise to look into it further, as it’s a complex issue and it is possible we are not weighing the considerations in the right way. Overall, although Anthropic has made plenty of mistakes as an organization — including some of the items on your list — I feel that we have repeatedly taken serious and substantive actions counter to our bottom line and that there is a significant negativity bias distorting assessments like the one you are making above. We’ll always try to do better but, again, I am extremely proud of our track record and stand by it. I will have more to say soon about how we are going to further live our values in this moment of rapid change.
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Day 16: OpenAI just extended prompt caching in the API from the usual 30 minutes to an optional 12 hours. This means developers can reuse instructions, tools, and other context that a model has already processed, even when requests are hours apart, without having to process everything from scratch again. For Codex and Work, Tibo says the benefit goes even further. You can return to an old conversation after several hours and still get a cache hit. The 12-hour option costs more upfront, but repeated use of the same context can make it cheaper overall.
Day 16/ You can now cache for 12h in the API and for logged in users across Codex & Work we keep cache forever and you don’t have any penalty for coming back to an old conversation or resuming after a few hours and are now guaranteed to hit the cache.
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Token Gremlin retweeted
ALL OF THIS WAS BUILT WITH OPUS 5.5 I've upgraded RONIN's combat system like 100x. Blocking and dodging KI points Wall jumps Finishing And SO MUCH MORE. I've spent over 80 hours working with Opus 5.5. I'll be showing everything I've built very soon... You haven’t even seen 1%.
WTF IS OPUS 5.5 EVEN CAPABLE OF 😭 I've been upgrading my new samurai survival game with a story, built using Opus 5.5, and LOOK AT THIS. Entire village + harbor Monastery + new trail Fishing and gathering Interactive NPCs Health, hunger and stamina Stackable inventory Storage journal RONIN is getting CRAZY haha
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Replying to @synthwavedd
Last time you said that, we got GPT-6.1 Sol. So I'm not exactly getting my hopes up.
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Opus 5.5 seems to have quietly gotten worse. On top of usage limits draining ridiculously fast, the quality of its outputs now seems to be dropping too. I've been getting a lot of comments about this, and I've seen several other posts reporting the same thing. It's starting to look like a widespread issue. My guess is that Anthropic has been tweaking the harness or checkpoint so much that they ended up breaking something along the way.
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Translating for you: Fable 5.5 will probably come next month, IF IT COMES AT ALL, because it would make more sense to hold it until AFTER THE IPO and squeeze Opus 5.5 for everything it's worth first. On top of that, Anthropic is in a race to either swallow the entire global economy or go bankrupt in spectacular fashion.
SCOOP: Anthropic's latest draft S-1 documents show financials results for the first half of the year, gigantic spending plans for the future, and a laundry list of risk factors. - Anthropic recorded a net loss of $80.7 billion in the first half of the year, tied to accounting adjustments related to previous financings - Anthropic is set to spend >$600 billion on compute in the coming years, inclusive of cloud agreements and chip leases. More in @WSJ:
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I'm going through some important documents about Anthropic, and they clear up a lot of our questions about Fable 5.5 and the company's future: Demand for Claude grew so fast that staying in the lead is requiring increasingly risky investments to serve it, train it, and replace it with new generations. If you compare Anthropic's 2025 revenue of around $1.1 billion with the current period in 2026 at around $16.3 billion, you'll see it grew its revenue 14.8x in ~ONE YEAR. That's 1,382% growth. Anthropic has literally taken on more than $600 billion in long-term commitments for infrastructure, cloud, and hardware, and that could reach $750 billion if new negotiations also go through. And here's something interesting: Fable 5.5, the most powerful model isn't necessarily the most commercially interesting one for Anthropic right now. A less capable but significantly cheaper model to run can generate better margins at scale, so they may squeeze a lot out of Opus 5.5 before launching the new Fable. And I wouldn't automatically bet that the IPO getting closer means Fable 5.5 is about to launch. A new model can also raise costs, attract regulatory scrutiny, or create operational risks right when investors are evaluating the company.
Exclusive: Anthropic's draft IPO filing reveals red-hot growth, massive computing costs and an $80 billion net loss. Here are the highlights. on.wsj.com/3WmyWAR
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Token Gremlin retweeted
I posted a OpenAI bug on 13 October , and had to delete that post on request from community so what happened when you downgrade from 200$ to 20$ the usage limit was same < it was not downgraded> so you could use astra entire day without hitting limits , this was due to a promotional bug now fixed < remember they had to increase 200$ limit for a month to give people a chance > so on fixing the bug many plus user get less usage and for that today openai gave 500$ worth of credit to every plus subscriber enjoy 🥳
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Token Gremlin retweeted
Last week, I teased a significant healthcare discovery at Anthropic, specifically mentioning Mythos 5 and its role in the scientific discovery process. Well, Anthropic just published the research! Working alongside Citrini Research, an internal Claude model autonomously generated over 318,000 protein designs in just 64 hours. Of the 211 candidates selected for laboratory testing, 17 successfully bound to four dangerous scorpion neurotoxins. Keep in mind, this project was initiated by a financial investment research firm, not a biotech company. Non-experts were able to direct an AI system through a genuine molecular discovery campaign and produce experimentally validated results. The implications here are enormous. We are quite literally democratizing access to biological research in ways that could accelerate the discovery of treatments for rare and neglected diseases, potentially helping millions of people who have historically been underserved by traditional drug development.
New on our Science Blog: designing protein binders against scorpion neurotoxins. Scorpions sting about 1.2m people every year, and antivenoms are often costly or in short supply. Claude has made an early step toward finding new treatments. anthropic.com/research/claud…
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Token Gremlin retweeted
Replying to @Adrian_Trabka
A writer working on a novel with sexual themes, a screenwriter exploring psychological violence, or a game developer creating an adult RPG isn't necessarily looking for therapy, companionship, or a substitute for human relationships. They're working. You completely ignored writers, artists, game developers, and dozens of other professionals. And you said AI tools are meant to make money and increase economic efficiency. So, do you think entertainment, literature, cinema, gaming, art, and content creation aren't part of the economy? The creative industry generates enormous amounts of money. Besides, I disagree with another premise of yours: technology doesn't have to make money for its use to be legitimate. People can use AI to learn, talk, create, reflect, explore fiction, or simply have fun. You don't need to personally attack people or tell them to see a psychologist just because they're suggesting a different way to use technology.
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This is a great step toward more privacy in ChatGPT. A protected space for personal conversations that doesn't disappear when you close the chat. But I think this would pair perfectly with an Adult Mode for verified users over 18. Adults deserve more freedom to discuss sexuality, violence, relationships, and other mature topics, whether in personal conversations or creative work involving writing, art, and game development. These are all part of the human experience, and we shouldn't have to pretend otherwise when talking to an AI. I'll keep advocating for an Adult Mode. I genuinely believe we have the technology to make this work responsibly, without removing necessary safety boundaries.
Keep sensitive conversations out of view with Locked Chats in ChatGPT. Move chats out of your regular history and search into a protected space you can unlock with a PIN on web and desktop, or a PIN, Face ID, Touch ID, or device unlock on supported mobile devices. New messages sent in locked chats won't update the memory used in your regular chats. Rolling out starting today to Free, Go, Plus, Pro, Business, Enterprise, and Edu plans.
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Token Gremlin retweeted
THIS is the power of the community.
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To all ChatGPT / Codex users who saw their usage limits drop drastically over the past few days: Turns out this was a real issue, and some of you were actually getting the usage allowances of lower-tier plans. OpenAI is now reaching out individually to everyone affected (around 40,000 users) to compensate them with credits.
There were reports of usage draining faster than anticipated for some users over the weekend. We've identified approximately 40,000 accounts that had an inconsistency on which usage limits where the actual usage that was applied did not correspond to their actual selected plan. We are reaching out individually to all these users and have corrected the issue. If this affected you, we'll add credits to your account. Sorry we got this wrong.
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THIS is the power of the community.
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Have you guys noticed Opus 5.5 burning through your usage limits like 10x faster than usual? I've been getting some really strange reports about this, with people saying their usage is suddenly draining at an insane rate.
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Token Gremlin retweeted
T3 code devs are now ripping Fable 5.5 apparently 😂 This could just be an error or a typo or something, but partners do have access now so I wouldn't be surprised
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So basically, Fable 5.5 is so good that you'll be able to design all kinds of functional molecules to fight pretty much any disease. You just need to be filthy rich and be willing to gamble on 300,000 attempts.
New on our Science Blog: designing protein binders against scorpion neurotoxins. Scorpions sting about 1.2m people every year, and antivenoms are often costly or in short supply. Claude has made an early step toward finding new treatments. anthropic.com/research/claud…
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Token Gremlin retweeted
Replying to @RealFlyingHigh
Just to clear a few things up, guys: 1. I wasn't the one who started this rumor in the first place. 2. I explicitly said it could be one of the biggest trolls of the week. I never presented it as confirmed information. 3. I've already clarified what happened in the comments and in a separate follow-up post. 4. I don't delete posts as a matter of principle. Transparency matters to me, and I want my followers to see everything: my mistakes, my wins, my jokes, my bad takes, all of it. In real time. I'm not interested in pretending I've never been wrong. 5. And finally, there was absolutely NOTHING about Stripe, donations, or money on that website when I posted about it, and there still isn't. People apparently dug that up from some older version of the site from who knows how many days ago. I'm perfectly fine with being wrong. That's part of following rumors and developments in real time. What I won't do is rewrite history just to make myself look better. I'll leave the original post below.
Replying to @thsottiaux
Are you using your new domain to tease 6.5?
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Token Gremlin retweeted
Replying to @cradrrat
Why would I delete it? I literally said from the beginning that it could be the biggest troll of the week. Now that it looks fake, I've updated everyone and kept the original post up. Deleting it would just be hiding the evidence and pretending I never posted it. I'd rather be transparent and own my mistakes than pretend I'm an insider who gets everything right. That's how you build trust, bro. LOL
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Token Gremlin retweeted
Looks like it was just a troll after all. Back to square one for now, folks. It was fun while it lasted. We had a good dream.
Well, there goes the little hope we had left. Looks like the whole "GPT-6.5" thing was just a fake leak, my friends. We were right to suspect it was "the biggest troll of the week." And now we're back to square one.
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