sempre caro mi fu quest'ermo colle

Hong Kong
It really is that simple
David Sacks pushes back on the AI bubble narrative and says the Corweave crash is just volatility "I would make the argument that this is just volatility, which you're going to get a lot of whenever you're underwriting to multi-trillion dollar outcomes in the future based on very rapid, exponential rates of growth." "The market is going to be super sensitive to any data points we have in the present. And so everything's gonna be exaggerated. And that's why you get these big swings." "That to me is the explanation of volatility. I don't think that something fundamental has changed. Has the demand changed? No. We know that the demand for compute just keeps growing by leaps and bounds. In fact, everyone is saying that they are compute constrained." "I mean, you got the biggest model companies are saying their compute constrained. Startups are saying it. I mean they're asking their VCs, hey, can you help us get compute. I think you've got some VCs even trying to buy compute as basically a strategy for competitive differentiation so they can help their startups." "Old GPUs, like even the H100s or the A100s, which are several generations old, they're still renting at premium prices right now. They were supposed to be fully depreciated, and they're not."
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NBIS ⋅ A bank sees the stock down 60%. This note doesn't show the math behind it. Rothschild & Co Redburn reiterated its Sell on $NBIS yesterday with an $84 target, against the roughly $210 price cited in the report. The thesis is that Nvidia funds America's open-weight model labs, that those labs become the marginal buyers of compute, and that the market mistakes a price propped up by strategic capital for a sustainable one. The numbers the bank uses come from Nebius's Q2 shareholder letter, and they check out. The target is the same one the bank set on September 21. The problem is that this note doesn't show the math behind it. The premium. According to Rothschild, neolabs are signing at $20-25 million per MW per year, while OpenAI and Anthropic have committed 18 and 14 GW respectively at $10 million or less. That implies a 2-3x cost disadvantage. On one side, multi-year gigawatt commitments; on the other, Reflection, buying 11-13 MW from Nebius (the bank's own estimate) on a contract through 2029. Size and term can explain at least part of the gap, but the report doesn't separate that component from any "subsidy." For three-to-six-month contracts Nebius sees prices of $40-50 million per MW per year, and it signed the first one in August: the shorter the contract, the higher the price. Who's buying. In the same quarterly cohort (average price above $20 million per MW per year), the letter also lists "a large US-based quantitative trading firm." The individual contract price isn't disclosed, but that bracket isn't made up only of model labs: there's quant trading demand in it too. The exposure. Reflection's Nebius contract is worth over $1 billion; total customer commitments, over $40 billion. On round numbers the ratio is about 2.5%. The actual share isn't disclosed. Pricing risk can reach beyond that contract, but the report doesn't say how much of the $40 billion it considers at risk, at what margins, or with what impact on cash flow. In this note, the $84 target (about $24 billion of market cap on 287 million shares) isn't reconciled to that book. Counterparty risk. It's real, and Redburn is right to raise it. 70% of the quarter's deals include prepayments, and Nebius puts coverage at 50-60% of the associated capex. Among the prepaying customers, the bank notes that Nebius names Reflection itself. The letter adds: "The expected payback period for the associated capex and related operating costs for Q2 deals is 1 year and 10 months" (6-K) That's an expected figure for the whole cohort, not a Reflection-specific estimate. It indicates the economics Nebius expects from those deals: payback in under two years, versus two to three before. A counterparty risk analysis would start here, test the assumptions, and measure the impact of defaults and lower prices. The report discusses prepayments but never mentions that payback. The house view. The same broker rates $NVDA a Buy with a $325 target and, in a September 7 note, estimates that Nvidia's financial engagement with the ecosystem could account for a third of its expected data center revenue this year. The two calls can be reconciled. But if circularity distorts prices, the first party that owes an explanation is the one funding it. To reread in November, in the Q3 letter: payback on new deals and capex covered by prepayments. If payback stretches and coverage falls, Redburn's thesis gets stronger. If they hold, the math that gets to $84 still has to be shown. For information only. Not financial advice. Disclosure: no position in $NBIS or $NVDA.
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$FISN $GS “We are pleased to recognize Liz Muller as one of the most exceptional entrepreneurs of 2026,” said David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs. “As AI reshapes the global landscape, the leaders at Deep Fission are proving that agility and vision can be the ultimate competitive advantages. They are not simply building a great enterprise; they are redefining what is possible in their industry.”
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“When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.” - Warren Buffett In addition to the filings already made for last Friday and Monday, my family office, @ApeironInvests, has just filed another Form 4 reflecting the additional (!) market purchase of approximately 1.75 million $ENHA shares over the past few days. In addition, the filing reflects the second batch of the PIPE, which we participated in during July and is now fully closed. Onwards and upwards 🚀
Who said I’m finished...? Another filing just dropped. As Warren Buffett once put it, channeling his mentor Ben Graham: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” $ENHA
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$ENHA Just got my three months supply delivered to Italy, getting ready to kill it in the gym! Thank you @max_enhanced for making this available in 34 countries!
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MYQORZO’s second quarter did not look like a launch. It looked like an inflection. Cytokinetics $CYTK reported Q2 net product revenue of $25.3m, against $4.8m in the partial first quarter. That is a 5.3x sequential jump, up 429%. Prescribers went from 275 to over 700. Patients dispensed went from roughly 680 to roughly 1,500. More than 80% of patients on therapy are on paid prescription, which is the number that separates a real launch from a sampling exercise. Then the stock fell 10%. The setup. Shares closed at $81.37 on 6 August, the day of the print. They are now near $73, roughly 17% below the 52-week high of $88.31 and back onto the $71.00 price at which institutions bought 11.34m shares in the second quarter for $760m net. That $71 line is the most honest support level on the chart: it is where sophisticated money committed capital eight weeks ago. The stock remains above its 200-day moving average and near the upper half of a 52-week range whose floor is around $33. The catalysts are dated, not hoped for. ACACIA-HCM already met both dual primary endpoints in non-obstructive HCM. Full results land in a Hot Line session at ESC in Munich, 28 to 31 August. The supplemental NDA for that indication is guided to Q4. Separately, the MAPLE-HCM sNDA carries a PDUFA date of 14 November 2026. MYQORZO is already approved in the US, China, Europe and the UK, has NICE backing in England and Wales, launched in Germany in June, and has ten HTA dossiers filed across Europe. Three regulatory or clinical events inside ninety days is an unusually dense calendar for a company this size. The balance sheet buys the time. $1.7bn in cash and investments at 30 June against roughly $1.15bn of term loan and convertible debt. That is a net cash position while the revenue line compounds. Where the Street sits. 19 buy, 3 hold, no sell. Consensus target $104.70, or +43% from here. Truist and Needham at $112. BofA, the most conservative of the recent movers, at $85, still 16% above spot. What could go wrong, and it is not trivial. The Q2 net loss was $198.8m, or -$1.50 per share, and full-year combined R&D and SG&A guidance was raised to $860-890m. At roughly $10bn of market capitalisation on annualised Q2 product sales near $100m, the multiple is close to 90x forward run-rate revenue. This is a single-asset story: aficamten is the company. ACACIA-HCM showed LVEF below 50% in 10% of treated patients versus 1% on placebo, and the full ESC dataset could read worse than topline. Cytokinetics filed suit against Bristol Myers Squibb and MyoKardia on 13 August seeking invalidation of a patent, which is a company acting from a position of strength but is still litigation risk. And the June equity raise is a reminder that dilution is a recurring feature here, not a one-off. The thesis in one line: the commercial ramp is real and accelerating, the catalysts are calendared and near, and the pullback has handed you the same entry the institutions took in June. You are paying a growth multiple for a launch that is currently exceeding its own first quarter by five times. Informational content only. Not financial advice. Do your own work. $CYTK $BMY
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$ENHA — when the market prices the cash and ignores the catalyst - spicy idea of the week! - Enhanced Group (NYSE: ENHA) trades at $1.93 after touching an all-time low of $1.66. Down 86% from the May 7 high of $14. The market has a precise reason for that, and it needs saying before anything else: the 10-Q as of June 30 shows $19.6M in cash and a qualified going concern, with a quarterly net loss of $61.9M. That said, I look at what sits on the other side of the ledger. Q2 was the company’s first revenue-generating quarter: $17.7M, almost entirely from sponsorships tied to the inaugural Enhanced Games in May, out of roughly $32M in aggregate contract value to be recognized over several quarters. In June, @C_Angermayer’s Apeiron Investment Group led a $50M PIPE — the third tranche, $13.3M, was expected around August 14 — with management pointing to 2027 as the year of profitability. In late July the Stronger+ and Longer+ supplement lines were expanded to 33 international markets. Analyst consensus remains Strong Buy with an average target of $10.50; Canaccord initiated coverage at Buy with a $6 target. The real catalyst, though, is regulatory. On July 23–24 the FDA’s Pharmacy Compounding Advisory Committee voted to recommend adding six of seven peptides — BPC-157, KPV, TB-500, MOTS-c, semax, epitalon — to the 503A bulks list, overriding the written recommendation of the agency’s own scientists. Enhanced had submitted written testimony and CEO Maximilian Martin was in the room. A second committee meeting on five more peptides is expected by February 2027. Precision matters here, because the market has conflated three distinct events: the vote is advisory, not binding; no peptide is on the list today; and formal rulemaking could stretch into 2027–2028. There is, however, the possibility that Secretary Kennedy invokes special authority to shorten the timeline — and the administration’s posture on this terrain is not ambiguous: in late April the FDA granted accelerated-review vouchers to Compass, Usona and Transcend on psilocybin and an MDMA-like molecule, following Executive Order 14401. Whoever opened that door on psychedelics is unlikely to close it on peptides. The North American peptide therapeutics market was worth $18.3 billion as far back as 2024. Enhanced’s market cap is roughly $250 million. Technically, the picture is what it is: lower highs from 5.72 → 4.60 → 3.58 → 2.50, the 2.35 support broken on August 14, the 20-day SMA above price. This is not a “buy here” chart — it’s a post-earnings capitulation chart. The first signal would be reclaiming 2.35–2.52, with confirmation above 3.00–3.20. Above 3.89 sits the PIPE warrant strike, hence structural supply. I am long. The thesis is not the chart, it’s the asymmetry: a $250M market cap company exposed to a regulatory regime change in a market worth tens of billions. The risk is equally explicit: if rulemaking slips and the cash doesn’t hold, the going concern is not a theoretical hypothesis. Anyone entering here must size the position accordingly. ⚠️ Informational content, not financial advice. The author holds a long position in $ENHA and therefore has a personal interest in the stock’s performance. No solicitation to invest. Do your own research. $ENHA $HIMS $LLY $ATAI $RZLV #ENHA #EnhancedGames #peptides #BPC157 #longevity #FDA #503A #biotech #smallcap #NYSE #compounding #RFKJr #healthspan #TRT #investing #stocks
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Psilocybin drug developer Compass Pathways has listed more than 115 job openings as it prepares for potential FDA approval and commercial launch. Around 100 of those openings are for sales representatives. Explore the open opportunities on our job board: jobs.psychedelicalpha.com/
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RT @AugustoTofani: $CIFR just printed one of its worst quarters ever. That’s the setup. Q2 2026: revenue $24.8M, down 43% year over year.…
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Do you remember when you joined X? I do! #MyXAnniversary
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$FISN At its IPO valuation, Deep Fission is valued at approximately $67 million per GW of pipeline capacity. Several publicly traded advanced nuclear peers trade at roughly $600-$833 million per GW. The market is assigning a very different probability of success. Full research: pratimanagement.substack.com…
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$SATS Update (June 19): The Board is Completely Clean 🧵 1️⃣ DOJ Silence Test = PASSED. The 30-day public comment window expired at June 18th midnight with zero noise or objections. The regulatory runway to kill the legacy 5G buildout mandate is officially clear.
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$SATS owns ~2% of $SPCX — worth ~$48B. EchoStar's whole market cap? ~$32B. You get 2% of SpaceX at a ~35% discount — the rest of the company free. Catch: the stake is locked up + EchoStar just skipped a $183M coupon. Mispriced gem or value trap? 👇 $SPCX
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Awesome!
It's pretty crazy. Our inaugural @enhanced_games engaged more than one billion (!) people worldwide. For several days, we dominated the global internet conversation. And these figures do not even include Roku streaming data, which Roku does not publicly disclose. Roku alone made the broadcast available to more than 100 million households across North America. As I've said before, Enhanced Games is an extraordinary "attention and emotion" gathering machine. We now have the opportunity to convert this massive brand awareness into both sports-related revenues (sponsoring, future media rights) and consumer/telehealth revenues. What's even more remarkable is that all of this has been achieved with only marginal (media) investment, as a significant portion of the event itself is funded through sponsorships. Reaching this level of global brand awareness would typically cost a new sports league hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars. Instead, we've built it organically and efficiently - creating substantial value while preserving capital for our $ENHA investors.
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All good points. Not sure why financial journalists havent picked it up, this should be on @barronsonline
I've spent the last few weeks thinking about Enhanced Group - the parent company behind the Enhanced Games and Live Enhanced telehealth - which went public via SPAC on the NYSE under the ticker $ENHA on May 8th. And I want to walk through, as clearly as I can, why I think this thing might actually work. Not because I have a position. I don't. But because the structural arguments underneath it are more interesting than most people realize, and because most of the commentary I've seen so far has been either cheerleading or pearl-clutching - and neither is useful. So let me lay out the case. You can decide for yourself. First, and most fundamentally, the content format is a cheat code. Every Enhanced Games event is under 60 seconds long. Think about that for a moment. The NFL spends enormous amounts of money and legal energy trying to control how its content gets distributed on social media. The NBA does the same thing. They produce three-hour broadcasts optimized for television, and then they spend the rest of the week trying to chop those broadcasts into clips that work on platforms that weren't designed for three-hour anything. Enhanced doesn't have this problem. Enhanced doesn't need to clip anything. The event is the clip. A world record attempt. One minute or less. Perfect for TikTok, perfect for Instagram, perfect for X, perfect for YouTube Shorts. Every single event is a self-contained, shareable piece of content. This is not a minor design choice. This is a structural advantage in distribution that compounds over time. The more events they run, the more content they produce, and every piece of that content is natively formatted for the platforms where attention actually lives in 2026. You can't retrofit this onto a traditional sport. You'd have to rebuild the sport from scratch. Which is, of course, exactly what they did. Second, media coverage is not optional - it's inevitable. Here's something people underestimate about the Enhanced Games concept: it is inherently newsworthy regardless of whether journalists approve of it. A human being, openly using performance-enhancing protocols under medical supervision, breaks a world record on camera. That is news. Full stop. And if a journalist decides to write a piece arguing against the Enhanced Games - that it's dangerous, that it's unethical, that it sets a bad example - congratulations, that's also distribution. Every outraged op-ed is free advertising. Every debate segment on cable news is free advertising. Every tweet from a retired Olympian expressing concern is free advertising. They've engineered a Streisand Effect into the product itself. More than 200 journalists and TV stations reportedly attended the inaugural event. More than 400 influencers and streamers. This is for a first-time sporting event from a company that spent a fraction of what LIV Golf spent. Speaking of which - an independent Qualtrics survey of 1,000+ people found 61% brand awareness for the Enhanced Games, versus 38% for LIV Golf. LIV Golf reportedly spent north of $5 billion to get to 38%. Enhanced got to 61% almost entirely organically. Before a single event had taken place. That kind of capital efficiency in brand-building is extremely unusual. Third, the athlete incentive structure is better. Traditional sports leagues pay athletes salaries and bonuses. The athlete performs, gets paid, goes home. The relationship is transactional. Enhanced Group has made athletes shareholders. This sounds like a gimmick until you think about what it actually means in practice. Every athlete with equity is now economically incentivized to promote the brand, recruit other athletes, create content, and perform at the highest level - not because someone told them to, but because their net worth depends on it. They're not employees. They're co-owners. I don't know of another major sports property where the athletes themselves have this kind of structural alignment with the company's long-term success. It turns every single competitor into a micro-influencer with real skin in the game. Over and over and over, in business, I've seen that when you align incentives correctly, good things tend to happen without anyone having to force them. And when incentives are misaligned, no amount of management or process can fix it. Enhanced got this one right. Fourth - and this is the part most people miss entirely - the sports franchise is not the business. It's the customer acquisition engine. The real business is telehealth. Live Enhanced is a direct-to-consumer telehealth platform selling FDA-approved supplements, enhancement Rx, and peptides - prescribed by licensed physicians, compounded in U.S. pharmacies. The relevant comparisons are Hims & Hers ($HIMS, ~$6B market cap) and Ro (~$7B private valuation). Both have proven the model works: high gross margins, recurring subscription revenue, outsourced infrastructure, strong consumer branding. But here's the difference. Hims & Hers reportedly spends close to $1,000 to acquire a single customer. That's a lot of money. That CAC has to be amortized over the lifetime of the subscription, and it puts a hard ceiling on how fast you can grow without burning enormous amounts of capital. Enhanced Group's thesis is that the sports franchise is the customer acquisition engine. Millions of people watch the Games. They see elite athletes performing on specific, transparent, medically supervised protocols. They think: I want access to that. They go to Live Enhanced. They subscribe. If this flywheel works - and that's a real "if" - the customer acquisition cost approaches zero. Because the sports business funds itself through media rights, sponsorships, and ticket sales. The telehealth business rides the attention for free. Near-zero CAC against a competitor spending $1,000 per customer is not a marginal advantage. It's a structural cost advantage that, if sustained, is essentially impossible to compete with. Sound like fun? If you're Hims & Hers, probably not. Fifth, the bioengineering megatrend is the real bet - and it's barely started. GLP-1 drugs - Ozempic, Mounjaro, and their various brand names - generated $71 billion in revenue in 2025. To put that in context, the entire AI industry generated roughly $30 billion. And only about 2% of the 800 million people globally who are eligible for those drugs currently have access to them. Two percent. The regulated U.S. peptide market alone is estimated at $80 billion in revenue potential. Today, most of that demand is being served by unregulated grey-market suppliers - the same dynamic that existed in cannabis before legalization, the same dynamic that existed in sports betting before regulation. What happens when a category transitions from grey market to regulated mainstream? The companies that established trust and legitimacy early tend to capture enormous value. The sketchy operators get wiped out. Enhanced Group is betting that human enhancement follows this exact trajectory. And that when consumers decide they want to optimize their performance, their energy, their longevity - not fix a problem, but go beyond their baseline - they'll choose the brand that demonstrated these products transparently, on elite athletes, under medical supervision, on live television. That's not an unreasonable bet. Sixth, the data moat is real and gets stronger over time. Every Enhanced athlete is, in effect, a monitored longitudinal experiment. Enhancement protocols, biomarkers, performance outcomes - all systematically captured. The analogy that gets used a lot is Formula 1, and I think it's actually a good one. An F1 car is purpose-built for the absolute frontier of engineering. It will never be mass-produced. The average driver will never need one. But the innovations pioneered on the F1 grid - paddle shifters, carbon fiber monocoques, advanced telemetry - inevitably find their way into consumer vehicles over time. Enhanced Group's work with elite athletes follows the same principle. The protocols designed for world-class performance feed directly into the consumer platform's product offering and personalization engine. No telehealth competitor has access to this kind of data. It's proprietary, it's accumulating, and it compounds. Will it become defensible IP? Too early to say. But at minimum, it gives Enhanced a credibility and personalization advantage that competitors would need years and enormous capital to replicate. Seventh, the transparency play is structurally differentiated. Every other sports league in the world actively hides enhancement. The Olympics, the NFL, the Tour de France - they test, they ban, they suspend. And athletes enhance anyway, in the shadows, using unregulated products from unvetted sources. Enhanced does the opposite. Public company. SEC filings. Audited financials. FDA-approved products only. Licensed physicians. Regulated pharmacies. In a market where demand for enhancement is growing regardless of what any governing body says - and it clearly is - the first mover to offer legitimate, transparent, medically supervised access has a real shot at owning the trust layer. Being public is itself a moat. It forces a level of accountability that private competitors can choose to avoid. Eighth, the macro tailwind is secular, not cyclical. As AI automates more jobs and reshapes the labor market, two things happen simultaneously: people have more leisure time, and they have a stronger desire for meaning, identity, community, and real-world shared experiences. Live human competition - especially at the extreme frontier of performance - uniquely fulfills that need. You can't automate the emotions people feel watching sports. Tasks can be automated. Tribal identity cannot. Sports has historically been one of the most resilient asset classes through economic cycles. Premium sports IP has only become more valuable over time, not less. And Enhanced is positioned at exactly the intersection where increasing leisure time meets increasing demand for spectacle. Long $ENHA
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BOOM 🚀 The inaugural @enhanced_games were a smashing success. Check out the recap from my co-founder and $ENHA CEO, @max_enhanced - and follow him to not miss any news. And we are only getting started. We also fully acknowledge that sprinting was the weakest discipline at this year’s Games — largely because the baseline level of participating athletes was still too low, and because the one athlete truly capable of competing at the absolute highest global level, @fkerley99, ultimately chose NOT to enhance - yet... So let’s change the incentives. The new prize for breaking Usain Bolt’s men’s 100m world record at the 2027 Enhanced Games is now $10 million. Let’s see who steps up.
World record. 21 personal bests. Performing better than ever, healthier than ever, richer than ever - happier than ever. Plus we just offered $10 million to beat Usain Bolt's record. My full letter to shareholders is live. maximilianbmartin.substack.c…
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Better. Faster. Stronger.
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italo retweeted
Marco Rubio finding out he has to compete in the Enhanced Games
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