Host @ecommcowboy. Built CAMSKNS (acquired). I consult sometimes.

Charlotte North Carolina
DoorDash is reportedly in advanced talks to buy Instacart for $17 billion. Meanwhile, the median US household in every age group spends $0 a year on food delivery. So who’s ordering? Baby boomers locked in at 2% interest rates with four paid-off SUVs in the driveway. They’re going after the baby boomers with all the money that none of us has.
BREAKING: DoorDash reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Instacart in a deal potentially worth $17,000,000,000.00.
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New paper: 88% of VC-backed founders get zero at exit. The top 1% take 79% of all the value. Makes total sense. VCs are betting 95% of their portfolio fails. “Capital will basically just increase the acceleration whether it is good or bad.” No product-market fit. You raise $10M. You spend $9M. Then layoffs, and the whole thing blows up. Unless you have real PMF and early wins, would you still raise?
Holy moly... this new paper finds that 88% of VC-backed founders receive zero exit value 🤪🤪🤪
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How it feels with Chris and I trying out lookmaxx each other:
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A year ago, @whop did pretty much $0 in e-commerce volume. Now it's over $1 billion a year. Whop co-founder @czoob3 says they never set out to do e-commerce. Their operators wanted to sell merch and products, so Whop built a website product and fulfilment.
Whop has raised $200M in Series D funding at a $5.1B valuation, backed by @sequoia and @shopify. It really feels like we are barely touching the tip of the iceberg in a market larger than anyone can imagine. We first launched Whop as a better way for us to sell sneaker bots, one of the most niche types of desktop software out there. Total TAM? Probably $20,000 per day. Who cares, tiny market. But, what people discounted is the idea that there were actually 70,000 other markets exactly like that one. Beyond the investment itself, I am especially excited to welcome legendary silicon valley investor @dougleone to our board of directors. Doug and the sequoia team are nothing but a brilliant, resourceful, and principled group of people. My co-founder Cameron and I started building on Shopify when we were 13 years old. Shopify is one of the most impactful all-in-one cloud ecosystems ever created; @tobi has pioneered modern entrepreneurship the way we know it and we are thrilled to have him in our corner. We have a tenet at Whop to be the dumbest in the room and I am very grateful that this has recently become a lot easier. We are focused on markets, scale economies, and progressive media. If that is up your alley, please message me directly. The $200M raised will support our expansion as we build economic infrastructure for the next century, continuing on our mission of delivering everyone an income.
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Adults are buying the toys now. Small Lego sets run $30-40. Bigger ones start around $100. My read: this isn’t about toys. It’s about capital allocation. A house is out of the question at these rates. A watch as an investment? The barrier to entry is too high. Wine? You need a ton of education first. The S&P? Extremely overinflated. A correction has to come. Everyone has cash. No one has anywhere to put it. So where’s the low-barrier alpha right now?
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Is Meta CVR broken? @TaylorHoliday: “Some brands are up 100% in conversion rate, some are down 80%. The median store is down 4% year over year.” "Benchmarks and aggregates are generally useful and specifically useless." ”We're going to have a great Black Friday.”
Something is seriously off with Meta traffic right now. We're seeing conversion rates drop by as much as 30–40% across parts of our portfolio over the last 3 weeks. And it's not just e-commerce. DTC, B2B, lead gen. Different industries. Same pattern. Here's the weird part: CPMs? Fine. CTRs? Fine. Add to carts? Fine. Initiated checkouts? Fine. Actual conversions? Falling off a cliff. The brands struggling the most have one thing in common: They're NOT running aggressive promotions. Meanwhile, brands that have been pushing offers through Labor Day, Prime Day, and now Halloween? They're doing just fine. We've seen similar behavior around major shopping events before, but I don't remember seeing it at this scale or for this long. And after speaking with other Tier 1 advertisers, I'm hearing very similar stories. Which makes me think something bigger is happening. Two possibilities: 1. Meta is making significant backend changes, as they frequently do, with very little communication about how those changes affect delivery and traffic quality. 2. We're seeing broader macroeconomic or consumer behavior shifts that are starting to affect even Meta's ability to find high-intent buyers. And that second possibility is particularly interesting. Meta has historically been exceptionally good at finding people who are ready to buy, even when the broader market isn't doing particularly well. But right now, something isn't adding up. I don't know which explanation is right. Could be a combination of both. What I do know is that this isn't isolated to a few underperforming accounts anymore. What are you guys seeing?
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Amazon sells Shilajit for $9. @NoahRyanCo sells it for $28. How do you win a price battle like this? Education. Show the heavy metals in the cheap stuff. Show the missing active ingredients that your competitor is missing. "Buyers can't unsee that if you educate them properly."
I've seen what happened to @danielfazio happen to dozens of operators, especially as they reach their late twenties: - Chad ram work for like 5 years straight - Actively suppress signals from your body in order to power through work - Use stimulants, fasting, etc to maintain sympathetic state - All gas, no brakes - Eventually your body reaches a point where its had enough - Something small takes you out: illness, injury, mold, etc - Think the trigger is the cause but in reality its just the final straw - Nervous system shuts down, body goes into "danger response mode" - Totally lose your spark, feel genuinely unwell (because you are unwell) This is your body beating you into submission. Telling you its had enough. Symptoms are always different but pattern is the same: You crash hard and can't seem to get back to normal. People blame it on the symptom rather than the root problem: Your operating system is all messed up. The solution require a mix of: - Recalibrating your nervous system - Addressing nutrient deficiencies - Using tools to shift your neurological state into recovery mode - Literal rewiring of your brain (using tools and reinforcement practices) - Building a baked-in recovery environment
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Your store already holds the answers that should decide your next move. But most operators never ask the right questions of the data. @adamintelligems says ecommerce is a data native business: you can see clicks, view-throughs, scroll depth, which products people view, what they add to cart, and how many abandon checkout when shipping goes over $7. Shopify exposes all of that through its query language, but it is hard to access. The Intelligems MCP wraps it so that you can ask Claude questions about your site data and your order data. The takeaway for operators: the constraint is no longer data access; it is asking better questions. What is the first question you would ask your store data?
Intelligems is now a Shopify Certified Technology Partner — one of only ~100 apps in the entire Shopify ecosystem to earn it. We were invited into the program, which comes with a rigorous review. Shopify's team evaluates every app on performance, privacy, and the quality and speed of support, and each partner has to pass an independent third-party security assessment. That bar is how we've always approached building Intelligems. We sweat the details, take data security seriously, and have always prioritized world-class support. It's just nice to have Shopify's stamp of approval on our approach. Proud of this team, and thanks to our friends @Shopify!
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Pixie dusting is the quiet playbook in CPG. A study says an active boosts cellular energy at 1.2 grams. But then brands put in 25 milligrams and advertise the benefit anyway. @jordanmenard says that stops working once consumers ask their AI whether a product is at clinical doses. The AI will read the literature, check the label and tell them it's low quality.
it's time it's here what could be a better product category than electrolytes? learn about @jordanmenard's new ecom brand. his first public interview since leaving instant hydration watch now: piped.video/FgyWawo1dp8
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Last two days of the show this week have us feeling like: @TJ_Bongiorno @orenmeetsworld @natelagos @chrislukehall
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Me giving talking points to Chris this week while I have a cold:
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In 2019, a $100 sale left $36 of contribution margin. In 2026, it leaves $1.71. @dave_stickland says the math in DTC doesn't add up anymore. And unfortunately, if you don’t have an unfair advantage, reality and the lack of profitability will hit your product hard.
The math doesn't math anymore. Ecommerce is a harder game than it's ever been and there's less money for brands than ever. Brands, Agencies, and Service Providers need to change their models.
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Me vs @BryanECano all day
WE BUILT A VIDEO GAME. Introducing THE SHOWDOWN, the official Ecomm Cowboy 1v1 shooter. Challenge a friend. First to 5 wins. Winner gets bragging rights. We've turned our sponsors, partners, and friends of the show into weapons, power-ups, and Easter eggs throughout the map. Now we need YOU to jump in and test your skills. Play your friends, share your wins on X, and tag us. Might even have to throw a massive knockout tournament to crown the best gunslinger in ecommerce. Game in the comments
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Colin Dougherty retweeted
WE BUILT A VIDEO GAME. Introducing THE SHOWDOWN, the official Ecomm Cowboy 1v1 shooter. Challenge a friend. First to 5 wins. Winner gets bragging rights. We've turned our sponsors, partners, and friends of the show into weapons, power-ups, and Easter eggs throughout the map. Now we need YOU to jump in and test your skills. Play your friends, share your wins on X, and tag us. Might even have to throw a massive knockout tournament to crown the best gunslinger in ecommerce. Game in the comments
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