Joel is NUTS in a GOOD way!

18 years of Bitcoin. Thank you, Satoshi — what an incredible journey.

The white paper turned 18, so we're giving away 250,000 sats. 5 winners, 50,000 each. 🧡 1. Follow @sazmining 2. Repost this Bonus entries: tag friends below (up to 3) or quote post. Winners picked Tue Nov 3, 8 PM ET. #wildsatters #FreedomMoney

Let's talk about Bitcoin's CAGR, volatility, amplified Bitcoin, and risk. Amplified Bitcoin is a bet on a bullish Bitcoin thesis. Clearly. If Bitcoin compounds over the long term, the companies that own the most of it per share win. But a bullish thesis is only worth something if you survive the path to it. Bitcoin’s volatility remains a feature, and the real question for any leveraged Bitcoin balance sheet is who decides when you sell. That’s why the funding structure matters as much as the leverage. Debt that matures sets a date when the bill comes due, whatever Bitcoin is doing. Perpetual preferred equity has no maturity and no principal to repay, so nobody can force a sale into a drawdown. You can’t predict the path. You can structure the balance sheet to help in controlling the range of outcomes. To show why, I ran 10,000 simulated 5-year futures, three ways. The only things that change are return, volatility, and whether the leverage has a due date. Each simulation is tuned so the median path compounds at its stated CAGR, using inputs from daily BTC closes. Bitcoin at its 2020–26 stats: 42.4% CAGR, 61% volatility Median outcome: 6.0x Average: 15.1x Chance of a loss after 5 years: 9.1% Chance of 10x+: 35.2% Chance of a 50%+ drawdown along the way: 89.1% Almost every path eventually feels broken. The typical one ends up 6x. Bitcoin in the 2023–26 regime: 51.1% CAGR, 46.1% volatility Median: 8.0x Chance of a loss: 2.3% Chance of 10x+: 41.6% 50%+ drawdown: 45.7% Lower volatility smooths the ride, and it cuts the loss rate by 4×. A hypothetical Bitcoin treasury equity: 2023 regime CAGR +20 pts (71.1%), 2× the volatility (92.3%) Median: 15.2x | Average: 124x Chance of 10x+: 57.8% 50%+ drawdown: 99.9%. Essentially every path gets cut in half at some point. This is amplified Bitcoin. The upside is enormous, and so is the turbulence. Now give that company debt that matures in year 3. If the stock is down 50%+ on the maturity date, it can’t refinance. It has to sell Bitcoin at the bottom, and the equity is wiped out. That happens on 7.7% of paths. The volatility didn’t kill them, the deadline did. Fund those same paths with perpetual preferreds and there is no deadline. The company pays its dividend and waits. Of the paths debt would have killed, 75% finished above their year-3 bottom and 40% finished above where they started. Chance of a loss after 5 years: Debt with a maturity wall: 12.1% Perpetual preferred equity: 9.0% Same ~15x median, a quarter fewer losers. A convertible note says “pay me back on this date, whatever Bitcoin is doing.” A perpetual preferred says “pay me a dividend, forever.” Only one of those can force you to sell at the bottom. If you’re long-term bullish on Bitcoin and you want amplified exposure, consider whether volatility ever gets a vote on when you sell. These simulations are illustrative and hypothetical Monte Carlos with explicit inputs, not a forecast of any company’s results. Not investment advice.

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 GIANT EXCHANGE COINBASE JUST CONFIRMED IT'S HELPING JPMORGAN, CITI, AND PNC LET CLIENTS BUY #BITCOIN DIRECTLY IN THEIR BANKING APPS THEIR GOAL IS "TO FACILITATE EVERYONE’S ABILITY TO BUY BTC" BTC IS GOING MAINSTREAM 🚀

Michael Saylor’s Strategy daily trading volume has surpassed the entire TradFi industry. ...they want $MSTR banned from MSCI.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $110.3 million in net inflows yesterday 🚀

Thanks in advance for the meme, Jason. 🤣🤣😂

Notorious bottom indicator (and notorious bottom) Jason Calacanis diarrhea-posted a retarded jeremiad and you are bearish?

Meet Jason Calacanis. The man telling you to sell your Bitcoin. Let's meet HIM first. 😂 WHO HE ACTUALLY IS: Brooklyn kid, psychology degree, magazine guy. He built Silicon Alley Reporter in the 90s, got offered $20 MILLION for it at the peak, and turned it DOWN because he thought he was gonna be "the next Rupert Murdoch." Then the dot-com bust hit and he became the POSTER BOY of the crash. From almost-millionaire to wiped out. ONE LUCKY TICKET: He sold Weblogs to AOL for ~$25-30M in 2005. Then he burned ~$20M of other people's money building Mahalo, his "Google killer." Google changed ONE algorithm in 2011 (Panda), traffic got cut in half overnight, he laid off half his staff, and the company died in 2014. His own words: "This was the most misguided I've ever been in my career" and "Mahalo failed. Then I picked Uber." Read that again. His ENTIRE fortune is ONE $25K Uber check from 2009. Without that lottery ticket, he's a failed magazine guy with a podcast. People who actually worked with him call him "the used car salesman of the tech VC world." Their words, not mine. HE MAKES SHIT UP FOR ATTENTION. THAT'S THE BUSINESS MODEL: In 2010 he invented FAKE iPad specs on Twitter for fun. The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Wired, CNN and Reuters all reported his made-up specs as REAL. There was literally a "collage of shame." A man who pranks the press for clout is now your financial advisor? 😂 He also predicted Apple would buy Tesla for $75 BILLION. Never happened. NOW THE BITCOIN RAP SHEET. Dated, so he can't wiggle out: 📉 Nov 2018: "Bitcoin going to ZERO, 60-70% likely" — at $3,731. It went to $126,080. His "zero" did a 33x. 📉 2021: called it "worthless." 📉 Then he QUIETLY flipped to "too big to fail, less than 5% chance of zero" — no apology, no accountability. Just moved on like nobody screenshotted it. 📉 Aug 2026: said Saylor "broke the game of bitcoin." 📉 Sept 2026: "dead cat bounce" + "Bitcoin is a CD in the Spotify age." Saylor AND Cathie Wood both had to school him in public. 📉 TODAY: "never breaks its ATH again," "test the 57k low," "ETF outflows are signal and will continue." Reality: October flows are MIXED — 10 inflow days vs 8 outflow days, a +$528M day right before the -$635M day, and +$110M on Monday. His "signal" is one cherry-picked red day. AND HERE'S THE FRAUD PART: He ADMITTED he bought bitcoin at $100-200 and NEVER SOLD. He's spent 8 years telling YOU to sell the thing HE is sitting on. And today? "Shift to Super Intelligence" — then 22 minutes later, in his own reply, he admits he's long $TAO. He's not warning you. He's shilling his own bags while telling you to dump yours. WHY NOBODY SHOULD LISTEN TO HIM: His co-host Chamath was pro-Bitcoin since 2013. His other co-host is now the White House crypto czar. And Jason? He's the guy on the podcast who needs Bitcoin's name for views — 517K views on today's post alone. Without Bitcoin to hate, nobody clicks. Bitcoin doesn't need Jason. $1.59 TRILLION, never hacked, still standing after every obituary he wrote. HE needs Bitcoin — without it, he's just a guy who got lucky once in 2009 and has been selling hot takes ever since.

Jason Calacanis says it's time to DUMP Bitcoin and move into AI. Ran's reaction? He's getting MORE bullish. 😭 He points to Jason's previous bearish Bitcoin calls and argues that his track record makes this the perfect contrarian signal. Is this another sell call that ages badly?

Podcaster and paid altcoin influencer, @jason said that Bitcoin is a dead network and that people should pivot to AI. So we asked AI for his track record on Bitcoin claims. The Jason Calacanis Bitcoin Predictions

30 years ago, Carl Sagan described an America where manufacturing disappeared, technology concentrated in a few hands, and society slowly lost its grip. He got an uncomfortable amount right. But Dante thinks Sagan missed the escape hatch that arrived 14 years later 👇👀

JUST IN: Bitcoin has entered an accumulation phase, according to Galaxy Research. 👀 "We think the bear market ended in June and that bitcoin is in the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance." 🚀

Bitcoin expected to hit $537K by 2030 and $1.48M by 2034 according to Monte Carlo simulation. 🟠🚀 🟠🚀 95% probability of $200K+ by 2030. 150% upside. 🫡 @sminston_with

🚨 BLACKROCK CEO LARRY FINK: “THROUGHOUT MUCH OF OUR LIFETIME, INVESTORS WHO BOUGHT MARKET DIPS HAVE OFTEN BEEN REWARDED.” “I BELIEVE WE’RE STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES OF EXPANDING GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS.” THE HEAD OF THE WORLD’S LARGEST ASSET MANAGER IS FOCUSED ON THE LONG-TERM OPPORTUNITY. BLACKROCK SEES LONG-TERM POTENTIAL. BITCOIN COULD BE A KEY PART OF THAT FUTURE.

I think people are going to feel so incredibly stupid to have slowed down buying bitcoin this year.

Jamie Dimon called Bitcoin a fraud. Worthless. A tool for criminals. Now JPMorgan is telling the world's biggest investors it could outperform every major asset class over the next decade. Dante explains what changed. Hint: Jamie didn't suddenly become a Bitcoiner 😂👇

If you got screwed by Coldcard, here's a class action lawsuit that you can join if you want:

Andy Back on Bloomberg looking like a deer in the headlights, dodging questions, blaming his troubles on the bear market, while understating his links to Blockstream Mining. Bloomberg’s own reporting describes Blockstream Mining as a business Adam Back co-founded and partly owns, which has faced multiple lawsuits since the spin-off over unpaid equipment invoices, electricity bills, and client refunds. And why did BSTR end up allegedly having to pay Cantor $15 million to get out of the deal? So many questions for Andy, and all he wants to talk about is quantum BIPs

Since Bitcoin isn’t FDIC-insured or backed by the government, should you be concerned? I don’t think so—and here’s why!