Tech policy, @RSI | Founder and Editor, @ComputeOptimist | Senior Contributor, @JoinYoungVoices | Alum, @EdChoice | Rhode Island native | Views are my own 🇺🇸

Washington, DC
Fear sells. Fearmongering about AI and tech really sells. I’m building the opposite. Today, I’m launching The Compute Optimist (@ComputeOptimist). Analysis, reporting, and the receipts on the technologies poised to drive unprecedented human prosperity—if we let them.
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Ed Tarnowski retweeted
this meeting could have been a BCI thought transmission
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the colors aren't competing they're collaborating
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Based Jensen Huang (as usual)
JUST IN: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang tells German Chancellor Friedrich Merz that there will be no AI industry for him to regulate if overregulation stops AI from being built in the first place.
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New York later this week!
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The cybersecurity case against restricting access to US frontier AI models makes itself As I wrote in June, attackers will continue having access to capable models regardless of US policy Keeping defenders from the best tools means making it harder to secure their own systems
We found DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 beats GPT 6 Sol on our multi-step offensive cybersecurity task. Sol was tested via the Daybreak trusted access program. We have been building a cybersecurity benchmark based on simulated corporate networks. This is a valuable indicator for the cyber-risk a model poses if in the hands of a bad actor. We plan to make the full evaluation public in the coming weeks but wanted to share our first immediate finding here.
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Ed Tarnowski retweeted
the European mind cannot comprehend our world class rewards programs
do americans geniuenly believe cashback is money with no strings attached and american banks are just giving out money from the kindness of their hearts? lol
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Ed Tarnowski retweeted
California's Billionaire Tax Act would collect roughly $30 billion. Accounting for lost income taxes from departures, the mean Net Present Value is negative $39 billion, from Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh nber.org/papers/w35899
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Europe isn’t all doomers! Alex is doing the work of giants. If you’re in Europe and hoping to put a stop to the continent’s war on technological progress, check out his work 👇🏻
we, at @arqfoundation, are working to prevent things like this holding back Europe. If you would like to help us fix CADA, my DMs are open! We will be hiring for multiple roles.
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Legacy banks are already reflexively blocking customers from using AI agents to manage their own accounts Does this open a new competitive landscape for banks seeking to offer tech and banking freedom? Competition killed stock trading commissions as we knew it. Is this next?
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This report estimates the U.S. AI lead over China at just six months. It cannot be overstated how vital it is that we prevent reactionary, poorly written regulations that would smother American innovation. And the critical compute infrastructure behind it all must be built.
Big new IFP report from @GeorgiaCAdamson, @KonstantinPilz, and me on the US-China AI competition. We spent the last 6 months digging into how Chinese AI companies’ access to compute and distillation of American models translate into the current US-China capabilities gap. The result is a 23k-word research report, including an interactive analytical model that visualizes changes in the US AI lead under different policy interventions. Our findings: 1. The US AI lead over China is currently only around 6 months. 2. The US could roughly double this lead, to over a year, using authorities already available to the federal government. 3. On chips: China’s access to AI chips will roughly double over the next year, with chips housed in data centers overseas accounting for roughly half of China’s 2027 compute. 4. On distillation: the current ~16x US training compute advantage would normally yield a 13-month lead. But we estimate adversarial distillation halves this to around 6.5 months. 5. Increasing the lead would have some obvious benefits: - Give the US broadly a greater cyberdefensive advantage against Chinese threat actors. - Give US AI companies breathing room to spend more R&D resources on making their systems safer and more secure, without fear of being overtaken by less safety-conscious Chinese competitors. 6. Provide the US government more leverage in negotiations with China about the future of AI. 7. The two most important interventions are: - For BIS: Create a new end-use control to restrict China’s remote access to training clusters abroad — China’s largest and fastest-growing source of frontier-scale compute. - For DOJ/FTC: Create a narrow safe harbor to allow US companies to coordinate on countering Chinese adversarial distillation. 8. Both interventions (and all the others we discuss in the report) are things the federal government could do today. 9. To estimate the effects of each policy intervention, we model the US lead as a function of its compute advantage over China and China’s ability to adversarially distill the capabilities of the US frontier. 10. The model makes many simplifying assumptions, but provides a useful way to assess and rank the impact of different policy interventions at a high level. Read the full report here: ifp.org/how-to-increase-amer…
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Ed Tarnowski retweeted
"the shipbuilding ecosystem, which we totally screwed up with that stupid Jones Act"
Jamie Dimon, Chairman & CEO, JPMorgan Chase & Co., is about to address #EconClubChi. Watch the live program here: piped.video/live/UkvigLsQ2Ic…
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Ed Tarnowski retweeted
🔥🔥 @RepEricBurlison: “Do you really trust the members of Congress, who barely understand AI, to write the regulations?"
Wanted: Tech experts to help Congress regulate AI politi.co/4i4C0sr
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Ed Tarnowski retweeted
Having a train that takes you directly to the airport is genuinely one of the top 10 things a city can offer. No expensive taxis, no sitting in traffic, no begging someone to drop you off. Just get on the train and arrive at the airport. Every major city should have this.
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And today, we stand at the same crossroads with AI that we stood at in the 70s with nuclear energy Let's not make the same mistakes
unfathomable damage done to America. You could have abundant, cheap, emission-free electricity flowing to your home right now if it weren't for these people.
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Ed Tarnowski retweeted
unfathomable damage done to America. You could have abundant, cheap, emission-free electricity flowing to your home right now if it weren't for these people.
Ralph Nader, 1997: “When we came out against nuclear power in the early '70s, the government had predicted that there would be 1,000 nuclear plants by the year 2000 in the United States, and there's 109 and shrinking, as more and more get shut down.” pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline…
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Ed Tarnowski retweeted
Just the latest exhibit on how tech & AI are driving the energy revolution. This time from @amazon!
Again, one of the coolest things about the AI revolution is the energy revolution it’s bringing along with it.
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Ed Tarnowski retweeted
The Biden Administration waged war on tech based on the theory that it was going to win back working class votes. Not only was that dead wrong (we lost working class share), but it shrunk the Democratic tent and turned off Silicon Valley Democrats.
NEW: The big tech midterm realignment could have huge implications in 2028. Trump has made his party the defenders of Silicon Valley execs. Democrats see a populist windfall. The proof is in the ad spending data. theatlantic.com/politics/202…
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Ed Tarnowski retweeted
There are just so many shadowy anti-innovation groups around today with phrases like “People First” and “Humans First” in their names. These anti-progress front groups are growing fast thanks to special interest money and growing doomer cash networks. And as this example of their efforts to block driverless cars illustrates, they really are not about putting people or humans first. If they did care about people, they would be embracing life-saving technology instead of looking to block it. These groups are looking to repress choices that people want and that humans deserve.
An anti-robotaxi group called the People First Transportation Alliance has become active in DC in recent months. But exactly who is behind the group remains unclear. My latest for @washingtonpost washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/…
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