PhDing @Harvard_GovDept---class/identity in elections & public opinion; diversity, inequality, & exclusion (D.I.E.); immigration; metascience | 🇲🇽🇨🇦🏳️🌈
Montréal, Canada
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So excited to finally share my job market paper!
The post-Floyd “Great Awokening” was driven by affluent white liberals and emphasized recognition over redistribution.
Consistent with elite capture of identity politics.
Feedback very welcome! Link below.
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Marco Aviña retweeted
Did counties where gas prices hit harder swing further against the Republicans than similar neighbors?
My pre-registered test, filed the day before the midterms, finds no sign of this. That's not to say that gas prices didn't matter, but it sheds some light on the mechanism.
🧵
How will high gas prices affect the midterms?
It's an important question but hard to answer empirically. I've written down a plan to test part of it, and I'll publish my first results on Thursday, when most of the vote is in. 1/🧵
chdausgaard.github.io/fuel-2…
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Marco Aviña retweeted
Polling averages are pretty fragile to these changes! If we make the relatively modest assumption that Trump disapprovers respond 10% more to surveys than Trump approvers, and one in ten Trump voters was misreporting their 2024 vote, suddenly Nebraska flips and Dems net 54 seats.
So, I created a way for you to test out your assumptions on the results. If we start with the polling average, you can see to what extent nonresponse bias and misreporting 2024 vote would, on average, lead to either a Republican or a Democratic-biased polling error!
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We should rethink the role of human judgment in the review process. Human expert should have a role, but it's no longer about writing 1,500-word essays to summarize findings, check proofs, and so on.
On top of that, any journal that forbids AI usage in the review process should reconsider their position.
New paper: "AI Article Reviews Dominate Human Peer Reviews at Their Best: Evidence and Policy Choices" See: GaryKing.org/peerless. with Steven Worthington. Comments welcome!
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The PQ government has named as its deputy premier the minister of immigration, who's also the one in charge of the independence project. Quite revealing of this government's priorities and vision of nationalism.
1/25 Paul St-Pierre Plamondon — Premier ministre et lutte contre l’itinérance : chef du PQ et avocat, il promet de réduire l’itinérance de moitié en quatre ans.
2/25 Catherine Gentilcore — Vice-première ministre, Immigration, Indépendance et leader parlementaire : ancienne présidente du PQ et PDG de Numana.
3/25 Nicolas Marceau — Finances et Infrastructures : économiste et ancien ministre des Finances sous Pauline Marois.
4/25 Alain Therrien — Conseil du trésor, Administration gouvernementale et Action communautaire : ancien enseignant en économie et leader parlementaire du Bloc.
5/25 Sébastien D’Astous — Efficacité gouvernementale et Allégement réglementaire : ingénieur, ex-maire d’Amos et préfet de la MRC d’Abitibi.
6/25 Anne Nguyen — Intelligence artificielle et Numérique : ancienne responsable de l’IA au Conseil de l’innovation du Québec et de la stratégie des données au CHUM.
7/25 Nicolas Girard — Transports et Affaires municipales : ancien député de Gouin ayant dirigé l’AMT et le RTC.
8/25 Stéphane Paquet — Développement économique, Innovation et Énergie : ancien PDG de Montréal International et délégué général du Québec à Londres.
9/25 Dieudonné Ella Oyono — Relations internationales, Francophonie et Commerce extérieur : économiste et ancien directeur du développement économique de Montréal.
10/25 Joël Arseneau — Éducation nationale : ancien enseignant, maire des Îles-de-la-Madeleine et chef parlementaire du PQ.
11/25 Elsie Lefebvre — Enseignement supérieur, Habitation et Condition féminine : ancienne députée, conseillère municipale à Montréal et vice-présidente du CA de la STM.
12/25 Mathieu Lebrun — Travail, Emploi et Solidarité sociale : médiateur en relations du travail nommé conciliateur dans les négociations du secteur public en 2023.
13/25 Méganne Perry Mélançon — Famille, Jeunesse, Sports et Loisirs : première femme élue députée de Gaspé, elle a aussi été porte-parole nationale du PQ.
14/25 Marie-Karlynn Laflamme — Santé, Prévention et Aînés : gestionnaire issue du réseau de la santé et de l’UQAC, ancienne présidente de Centraide Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean.
15/25 Camille Pellerin-Forget — Institutions démocratiques, Santé mentale et Services sociaux : physiothérapeute de première ligne et ancienne présidente de la commission politique du PQ.
16/25 Marie-Claude Sarrazin — Justice, Affaires intergouvernementales, Droits et Laïcité : avocate en litige et procureure de la commission Gallant sur SAAQclic.
17/25 Guy Jr Lapointe — Sécurité intérieure : ancien policier et communicateur à la SQ, au BEI et au Service de sécurité incendie de Montréal.
18/25 Pascal Bérubé — Culture, Patrimoine, Communications et Langue française : député depuis 2007, ancien ministre délégué au Tourisme et chef parlementaire du PQ.
19/25 Jean Pellerin — Environnement, Climat, Biodiversité, Faune et Parcs : gestionnaire d’expérience et ancien président de la Chambre de commerce de Trois-Rivières.
20/25 Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay — Relations avec les Premières Nations et les Inuit : député bloquiste élu en 2019, titulaire d’un doctorat en socioéconomie du développement.
21/25 Natalie Bisaillon — Ressources naturelles et Forêts : dirigeante en investissement ayant travaillé chez Desjardins, Intact et à la Caisse de dépôt.
22/25 Bernard Sévigny — Agriculture, Pêcheries et Alimentation : ancien maire de Sherbrooke et président de l’UMQ, titulaire d’un doctorat en administration des affaires.
23/25 Meggie Richard — Régions et Occupation du territoire : ancienne préfète de la Minganie et DG de Havre-Saint-Pierre, avec une expérience en tourisme et en activités portuaires.
24/25 Nadine Le Gal — Présidente du caucus gouvernemental : avocate, ancienne directrice générale du Cégep de Saint-Jérôme et responsable d’un bureau de circonscription.
25/25 William Fradette — Whip en chef du gouvernement : ancien directeur de la recherche parlementaire du PQ, conseiller bloquiste et journaliste, diplômé en droit.
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Marco Aviña retweeted
Demographics are not destiny
Party membership matters far more than demographics when people are choosing political candidates
Across studies, voters choose co-partisans 72.5% of the time. Gender and most race comparisons are close to 50-50
But party labels matter less when voters know where candidates stand. And policy alignment can trump party membership (58% of Democrats and 57% of Republicans choose the policy-aligned out-partisan)
In sum, partisan identity is very powerful but it's not everything. Policy preferences are even more crucial to understanding politics.
This was based on an analysis of 243 studies, 434,000 voters, and 2.18M candidate matchups across 52 countries.=
alexandercoppock.com/coppock…
Second, showing policy positions weakens other cues.
Across studies, co-partisans win 78% without policy information versus 68% with it. Experiments randomizing policy display find a similar pattern.
Party labels matter less when voters know where candidates stand.
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Marco Aviña retweeted
"Partisanship is powerful, but not invincible. In these candidate-choice experiments, policy can trump both demographic identity and partisan labels."
NEW WORKING PAPER
We meta-reanalyzed a decade of candidate-choice conjoint experiments.
144 papers. 243 studies. 434K respondents. 2.18M candidate matchups. 52 countries.
tl;dr: It turns out people vote based on policy...
Here's what we learned:
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NEW WORKING PAPER
We meta-reanalyzed a decade of candidate-choice conjoint experiments.
144 papers. 243 studies. 434K respondents. 2.18M candidate matchups. 52 countries.
tl;dr: It turns out people vote based on policy...
Here's what we learned:
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Partisanship is powerful, but not invincible. In these candidate-choice experiments, policy can trump both demographic identity and partisan labels.
It was a pleasure working with Alex Coppock, Matt Blyth & Semra Sevi.
Read the paper here: alexandercoppock.com/coppock…
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And there's more! We built an interactive explorer that lets you investigate candidate matchups across the corpus yourself.
Want to know what voters prefer, how results vary across studies, or where the evidence is thin? Explore here:
anonymouspoliticalscientist.…
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Marco Aviña retweeted
This looks like a great paper, but what a commentary on the academy that we need people to argue for — brace for it — “privileging evidence in empirical social science” instead of identity and politics.
Recent prescriptions and policies would have us judge research by non-evidentiary standards, e.g. presumed political impact and scholar identity. In a new essay, Tom Clark and I argue empirical claims should instead be evaluated based on evidentiary strength. We outline a framework for judging evidence, and show its usefulness by revisiting high-profile scholarly disagreements spanning policing, political violence, election administration, and terrorism, before critiquing non-evidentiary approaches. We also argue social science needs a culture that is hospitable to critique—rather than one which condemns critics as “bullies”—if quality standards are to be upheld.
dropbox.com/scl/fi/fsgpflron…
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Marco Aviña retweeted
When having trauma is a social status symbol, you are heavily incentivized to twist any interaction you can think of into a trauma
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Marco Aviña retweeted
Being angry helped people solve 39% more puzzles on a difficult task and perform better on a challenging video game.
The advantage was seen on hard tasks, not easy ones.
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Marco Aviña retweeted
Success in academia comes from (1) doing good important work; and/or (2) playing the game of packaging the work in the way that brings maximal success.
This is ok when 1 and 2 are sufficiently correlated, but you get some "superstars" who are clearly way better at 2 than at 1.
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