A neighbor of mine in Sunset Park just called into WNYC to say that on Sunday he ran the marathon dressed as a pickle and stopped mid-race to vote early at his 4th Ave polling site. Hero

2/ The other thing to observe is that while we have seen a little wage growth deceleration over the past year (not as much as AHE suggested), the deceleration is nearly absent from overall comp costs. The culprit: rising benefit cost growth, and in particular...

Not just economics: almost 30% of STEM PhD dissertations now have AI-generated abstracts. To me that's pretty startling. These are 300-1000 word summaries of someone's work, and AI writing there predicts more AI writing in the body. We just updated this paper with info we've collected on AI disclosure and universities' AI policies too. Almost nobody discloses their AI writing (that we can detect through targeted searches of dissertations' full text) unless their university makes it part of the dissertation template, and only 25% of R1's have a policy we can find that governs AI writing in dissertations specifically. NBER draft: nber.org/papers/w35859 Updated (and ungated) copy here: dpgross.com/in-progress/PHDA…

What distinguishes the 1% from the merely affluent? How about having a third child. New post on a topic I've long been fascinated by (the economics and financing of having a third kid) where I finally felt bold enough to go into the latest SCF microdata to get a good answer. /1

On AI in economics, from r/academiceconomics (mostly grad students and early career)

🚜 New working paper: “Wheels of Change: Agricultural Automation and Human Capital in the 20th Century” Q: How does the next generation adapt to automation? A thread 🧵 (1/14)

Sgt. Ezra Lee is commissioned as an ensign in the Continental Army for his heroism in piloting the submersible “Turtle” in August.

This paper on the "divine coincidence" of monetary policy also features the divine coincidence that all of the key model parameters = ~1. May we all be so blessed. nber.org/papers/w35804

They used to put some heart into these mid-game football animations. "Some hungry boys."

There are lots of important questions to explore about our complicated intergenerational shifts and dynamics, and I do believe we can make loving space to do it rcobooth.substack.com/p/on-p…

The US labor share is at all time lows, but real wages are going up. So are things going well or not? It depends on whether people care more about consumption of the goods the economy produces, versus positional goods (that depend on relative status). We wrote a one-page paper, keeping it as simple as possible, w/ @mireiagine. Link to paper (although the whole paper fits in one image): papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…

Women in the US quote 26% lower hourly rates than men on Upwork, even after controlling for role, experience, and ratings. And the gap is even wider in some countries. In Bangladesh, women quote rates about 30% lower than men. Across most countries we analyzed with at least 5,000 active accounts, women set lower hourly rates than comparable men. But there are exceptions: in France, quoted rates are roughly equal, while in the UAE and Ireland, women quote higher rates than men after accounting for experience, role, and reviews.

New from me @nytimes -- have we forgotten our Keynes?? u3 is a function of ag-demand. nominal GDP is hot+were running huge public deficits/private sector surplus. the Fed (till now?) has been dovish. so yea, u3 is low even as AI ramps the early impact is job quality/wages/hiring

Google search trends for "early retirement." I expected to see the pandemic bump but what's up with 2025-2026?

some people will see this tweet and assume it's p(doom)

first derivative? second?

New + improved "Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts About the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence" w/ @erikbryn @RuyuChen No widespread job displacement, but gaps for AI-exposed 22-25 y/o widened to 19% by June 2026 in ADP sample Paper, summary ⬇️