The EU is a solution in search of a problem. Originally envisaged as a means to stop France and Germany going to war again, it had largely outlived its usefulness by 1990, so pivoted to saving the planet as a reason to continue existing. In the time since it has gradually deindustrialised Europe, knackered its energy supply, and made us all much colder and poorer.
But now the wheels are falling off the bandwagon and nobody is buying climate catastrophism anymore (and would prefer to have a warm home and a functioning auto industry) there is more pushback than ever against the EU, so now it needs to reinvent again - this time as a defence union against Russia even though it doesn't pose a conventional threat.
As such, the EU has become the embodiment of the famous HL Mencken quote "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary".
For domestic politicians, though, the continued rationale for maintaining membership or association with the EU is never the reason the EU gives itself to exist. It is merely to prevent right wing opposition from implementing their ideas. The whole object of the EU is to suspend democracy. That, in part, is about what this latest Polish constitutional dispute is about.
Here at home, we can see the Burnham administration doing likewise. They want closer association with the EU, and would rejoin in a heartbeat if they thought they could get away with it, but as a backstop they're now resorting to regionalisation in the name of "devolution", thereby creating their own little fiefdoms that can resist central government in the eventuality of Labour losing power. Whatever the economic or political rationale given, the intent is always to rig and sabotage democracy.
In part, that is what the Windsor Framework, along with level playing field provisions in the TCA is for. The EU doesn't want competition and the establishment doesn't want divergence. As Jean-Claude Juncker famously said "There can be no democratic choice against the treaties". That applies just as much to its external agreements.
This also serves as a deterrent against any radical reform. There are plenty of things the Tories cold and should have done with Brexit, but the economic and political penalty for doing it is too great. That's why we're locked into decline, and it's why nothing gets fixed until the European question is resolved once and for all.
One of my main criticisms of the Slop Right (Reform/Restore) is their failure to recognise this and their failure to develop a policy agenda to address and mitigate this dilemma. I'm of the view that they would be so unprepared for what they'd unleash, they would cause a constitutional crisis not dissimilar to what we see in Poland (followed by a financial crisis), then find themselves in office but out of power. We then see the right losing any subsequent election and being out in the wilderness for decades.
It is for this reason I don't especially mind that the right will lose in 2029. It will be a much deserved defeat but one that eventually works in our favour. In the following years we will see the right taking power in France, Germany and Poland, and possibly elsewhere, perhaps even leading to the dismantling of the Euro. I don't see the EU collapsing as such, but it will be side-lined and marginalised - which is exactly where we want it when we come to make the necessary domestic refroms. By then, the reforms we'll be making will be broadly in line with European policy.
Regardless, though, Britain will not be free until all of Europe is free. The EU is a parasitic anti-democratic organisation that has long outstayed its welcome. It is hostile to the very idea of democratic choice, as is the contemporary left. Brexit solved very little. The fight of our time is yet to come.