ARK Invest has just released their new Tesla valuation model, projecting
@Tesla could reach a $17.5 trillion valuation by 2031, and upwards of $20.4 trillion in a bull case.
ARK's 2031 Tesla base case: $4,400/share
• ~1M Optimus robots sold externally, generating ~$212B in revenue
• Robotaxi is ~80% of Tesla's enterprise value (down from ~90% in ARK's 2029 model)
• ~8.1M robotaxis deployed, with ~$753B in ride-hail revenue
• Total revenue of ~$1.45T and EBITDA of ~$902B
• Market cap of ~$17.5T
• Tesla's AI infrastructure spend grows from ~$7B to $225B cumulatively
ARK's 2031 Tesla bull case: $5,000/share
• EV revenue (excluding credits): $355B
• Robotaxis: 10M vehicles and $899B in ride-hail revenue
• Energy storage: 2,693 GWh deployed and $193B in revenue
• Optimus: 1.2M robots sold externally and $254B in revenue
• Total revenue: $1.62T
• EBITDA: $1.045T, a 65% margin, with a 72% gross margin
• Market cap: $20.4T
ARK's model does not assume SpaceX and Tesla merge, but they estimate combined SpaceX and Tesla could generate $3.8T in revenue by 2031, with SpaceX contributing ~62%.