Republicans need two upsets to keep the Senate Texas is tied in the new Fox News poll Democrats are 67.5% to win the Senate on @trylimitless They're also 67.5% to win both chambers Democrats are 92.5% to win the House A Democratic Senate with a Republican House is under 2% So the midterms come down to the Senate Democrats need to flip 4 Republican seats and hold all 13 seats they're defending Markets favor them in 5 Republican seats: North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Maine and Texas That leaves room for one miss Fox has Talarico and Paxton at 49% each in the poll released Wednesday In September, Fox had Talarico up 51 to 49 Talarico is still at 66.5% on @trylimitless Lose Texas, and Democrats need all four other seats on that list Or an upset in a race like Iowa or Kansas, where they trail They'd also need to hold Michigan It's the weakest of the 13 Is Texas the seat that decides the Senate, or the one Democrats can afford to lose?

Inter, Real Madrid, Sporting and Aston Villa are each priced near 80% to win tonight All four winning together is priced at about 41% Less than a coin flip All 9 Champions League home teams are favored tonight on @trylimitless Their prices add up to 5.65 home wins out of 9, or 63% In the league phase's first two seasons, home teams won 148 of 288 games About half Four lopsided games explain the gap ＞ Inter to beat Shakhtar: 81.1% ＞ Real Madrid to beat Leipzig: 80% ＞ Sporting to beat LASK: 79.2% ＞ Aston Villa to beat Viking: 79% The other five are far from safe ＞ Betis to beat Feyenoord: 61.5% ＞ Brugge to beat Lens: 53.6% ＞ Bayern to beat Arsenal: 44% ＞ Lille to beat Galatasaray: 44% ＞ Como to beat Man United: 42.6% All 9 favorites winning: about 1% How many of the 9 home teams win tonight?

If Anthropic goes public this year, it's about a coin flip to beat SpaceX's IPO Polymarket gives it about a 38% chance at the biggest IPO of 2026, down from 55.3% a week ago ＞ 72.5% The chance Anthropic goes public by Dec 31, down from 76.5% If it doesn't, SpaceX almost surely wins If it does, its odds are about 50-50 ＞ $2.1T SpaceX's market value at the end of its first trading day That's the number Anthropic has to beat This week, investors talked about a $1.5T valuation for Anthropic, down from about $2T If it prices at $1.5T, it needs to jump about 40% on day one If it prices at $2T, it needs about 5% ＞ 40% None of the 12 biggest IPOs by money raised ended their first day up that much Alibaba came closest, up 38% in 2014 SpaceX sold less than 5% of its shares and still rose only 19% Is 38% too high or too low for Anthropic?

Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988 Early voting starts Monday 1988 Lloyd Bentsen's last win Republicans have won every U.S. Senate race in Texas since The closest call was 2018, when Beto O'Rourke lost by 2.6 points 50-47 Talarico leads Paxton in the latest Texas Politics Project poll The lead is within the margin of error 62.5% Talarico to win on @trylimitless Inside Elections just moved the race to a toss-up Does the 38-year streak end in November?