Brazilians are heading to the polls this Sunday for runoff presidential and gubernatorial elections. I’ve seen quite a few tech people reposting in support of the current president, who’s running for fourth term (he also elected his protégé twice, in between the 2nd and 3rd terms, and was arrested for corruption for almost two years)
Ignoring opinion, here are some facts you should know about Brazil and Lula’s record:
1. Brazil is burning about R$1.2 trillion a year in interest on the public debt (~US$234bn in 12 months to August). Debt/GDP is ugly and rising (~83%), but it is not the series record. That was ~88% in 2020 during covid.
2. Highest real interest rate in the usual global rankings. Base Selic interest rate 13.75%, real rate around 8.5%.
3. Lula government's own budget papers admit that from 2028 current policies do not fit the fiscal rules (about R$16bn / ~US$3.2bn short that year) while the campaign keeps promising more.
4. When courts and institutions eat the political system, you get a modern soft dictatorship. Call it what you want.
5. Opposition journalists and influencers in exile, passports canceled, accounts blocked. Supreme Court justices threatening journalists with prison over unfavorable columns.
6. In a 2025 tally of public Supreme Court cases against lower house deputies, about four in five are against the opposition/right. Secret probes are not fully counted.
7. January 8 defendants (the 2023 storming of Congress, the Planalto, and the Supreme Court in Brasília), including mothers and elderly people, got up to 17 years jail time, judged directly at the Supreme Court with no opportunity for appeals. 11 people have died so far. That is not how normal criminal justice works in Brazil.
9. This year a journalist's home was raided over reporting on Flávio Dino (a justice nominated by Lula, a personal friend, political ally and unabashed communist). The probe went after the source, despite constitutional protections.
10. In 2024 Brazil blocked X nationwide for refusing STF prior censorship and whole-profile bans. VPN use was threatened with a R$50,000-a-day fine (~US$9,900/day). Starlink, an unrelated company also partly owned by Musk) was fined, in clear violation of due process.
11. Justice Gilmar Mendes (not Moraes) rewrote impeachment rules for STF ministers by himself and overrode the old congressional statute.
12. In 2023 Lula rolled out full head-of-state red-carpet treatment for Maduro in Brasília.
13. In Sep/Oct 2022 Lula promised he would not pack the Court with personal friends. Then he put his lawyer and a close ally on the STF.
14. He promised to end the state secrets culture and instead made more things secret, including his wife’s taxpayer-funded trip expenses
15. Record interest costs eat the budget and crowd out room for social policy.
16. The INSS (social security) discount scandal has deep Credcesta / PT-Bahia / Master roots before it went national. Credcesta is a payroll-loan brand in the scandal; PT is Lula's Workers' Party; Master is the bank scandal around Daniel Vorcaro.
17. Veja published Vorcaro audio on off-books money for a Lula film, and forensics backed the tape's authenticity. PF/PGR still dispute that a formal plea confirmed the payment.
18. Government leaders worked against a Master Bank CPI/CPMI (Congress inquiry commissions: CPI in one chamber, CPMI joint). On the INSS inquiry, after Congress voted to open Lulinha's (Lula's son's) bank and tax secrecy, the Planalto fought it and Justice Flávio Dino suspended the lifts.