VC @BlumeVentures, an early stage Indian tech fund. Writings on venture, PMF, India tech etc., at sajithpai.com and blume.vc/indusvalleyreport

Bengaluru
I think I know what @gclarkecon 's next title is likely to be....at least the first three words:)
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Sajith Pai retweeted
You asked a VC for ₹50 Cr. The VC heard a ₹250 Cr valuation. Early rounds sell 20-25% of the company, so your ask x 4-5 is your price. Then the VC checks whether your next round can come in at 2x within 18 months. @sajithpai calls it the Rookie Fundraising Mistake.
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From the @NewYorker piece by @nathanheller on James Daunt (CEO of Barnes & Noble, Waterstones etc). The piece is really good, though for regular Daunt-watchers like me the only newish stuff is the family background:) This one on how to communicate in foreign countries - speak the language you know least - is really good. I think @pvpbrussels who invented the maximin principle of how people chose a language to communicate in would find this fascinating.
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My colleague and Partner at Blume, @BKartRed is back w the next season of his popular podcast. It has a new name and identity, which i absolutely love! One of One! Fitting description of the kind of guests and biz models he celebrates and features. Can't wait for this season to kick off!
Announcing One of One, the new avatar of the Blume podcast. Over four seasons, our podcast has covered X-Unicorns, compounding, winning beyond boundaries, and comebacks from near-death. The topics changed every season, but all our guests had one thing in common: Each of them was in a category of their own. So after four seasons, it finally has a name that says so. Our podcast is now One of One. Here's @BKartRed on the journey of the podcast, and why it has a new name. Episode 1 will be out next week on YouTube, Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Watch this space!
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4 articles in the guilty pleasure category I read recently. You know, the kind of 'non-fictiony' stuff that you can read as you munch along. 1/ The Chocolate Conspiracy by Rachel Handler - how Big Food has steadily made our chocolate less chocolate and more chemicals, changing the taste 2/ Inside the Thiel Fellowship's Early Years by @martin_plural on how @DStrachman systematised the search for young alpha talent at the Thiel Foundation, selecting, and later mentoring them. 3/ Military historian Si Sheppard comes on the @dwarkesh_sp podcast to talk abt how Cortes and Pisarro were able to crush the larger Aztec and Inca kingdoms with a handful of men. If you liked @Jared_MasonD 'Guns, Germs, and Steel', you will love this. 4/ Inside Larry Ellison's Wide Web of Power, Money and Politics by @cityofthetown in @VanityFair
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Hmmm.....
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Sajith Pai retweeted
Not sure publishers are taking the implications of this fact seriously enough yet. A tangential point — our reprint of Poor Charlie’s Almanack has sold about half a million copies. In China? 4 million.
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Pair this video (v cool and hope she gets a tonne of offers) with this context on why designer jobs in companies are reducing. From an AI-summary of @gokulr 's @InvestLikeBest podcast episode
Hi, it's Darshita. I am a designer. And I'm pitching myself in public 'cause I'm done with a year full of anxiety. Everyone says design is dead and AI killed it. But the real parasite was hiding in plain sight. So here's my film, DESIGN IS DEAD. She's bold, fearless and very PINK 💖 Hiring? My DMs are open.
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RT @Akshay001: 1. Started playing in non-competitive territory (read: new corridors), it was hard but paid off; built from scratch new dest…
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Reduce your TTS costs!
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I am skeptical of much VC value add beyond capital enablement / advisory but talent is one area i admit a VC can ‘be helpful’:) @saaquibx who was our first-ever talent hire has had dramatic impact making some needle-moving hires for our portcos. We have finally expanded the talent team, but for nearly a year it was just Saaq and an agent. Doing so much more with less. To many more years and hires @saaquibx 🚀
One year at @BlumeVentures, and it has been an amazing ride! :) 750+ candidate calls (and a lot of new relationships) ~40 hires across 23 portfolio companies 50% of the hires were L1s / senior leaders I got a front-row seat to some legendary founders’ journeys and helped solve some wild talent challenges along the way. I couldn’t have asked for a better first year! The best part is the five leaders I get to work with. Professionals would pay to hear them speak, and I get to call them my mentors. I’m grateful every morning that these kind-hearted people are my bosses :') @sajithpai @BKartRed @AshishFafadia @sanjaynath @arpiit - thank you, gentlemen! To many more :)
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Humans created ads to persuade humans. Agents will create _____ to persuade fellow agents. This ______ will be the new ad / persuasive unit. It would be a programmable unit - with some combo of 'i will share A or B value with you if you transact with me' or 'here is why this data store is conclusive proof that transacting with me is cheaper / better / faster than transacting with my competitor'. This PPU - persuasive programmable unit - is likely getting built somewhere.
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Really enjoyed this interview (a little dated; from Jan26) of @Kanwal_fireside w @madhavchanchani of @thearc_hq - the whole interview is worth a read, especially useful to understand how they have built the fund to deliver returns (and amongst the highest in the Indian fundscape) without adopting a power law approach. V interesting points (useful to consumer brands founders) on what acquirers look for: one key point is that they dont like companies w high SKU sprawl. They love companies w 1-2 hero SKUs (easier to integrate into their sales machine + supply chain). The other one was on how Marico has housed its acquisitions under a diff division, to ensure they dont lose the insurgent energy. Marico is a great example of how a FMCG major has cleverly used M&A to grow. Claude tells me "The acquired businesses (Beardo, 4700BC, Cosmix, True Elements, Plix) brought in a combined ₹2,375 crore in FY26, against total revenue of ₹13,611 crore. That works out to about 17.5% of consolidated revenue." Definitely the synergies w @sharrpventures and Rishabh's deep understanding of the consumer brands / DTC startup space helps Marico.
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This was an interesting @uncapped_pod episode by @jaltma featuring Mel Williams of @TrueBridgeCP Strangely there hasn't been any public tweet (or I couldnt find it) abt this episode though I didnt find anything controversial in the episode. My notes 1/ The froth is stage-inverted as compared to 2021. In 2021, seed rounds were rational, and growth rounds were irrational, while public markets were also irrational. Today, it's inverted. It's growth rounds that are arguably seen as more allied to public comps, and it's early-stage rounds, which are not as small as they used to be, which are much more frothy. AI is 50-60% of deal flow, and demand exceeds supply, which is what is behind the irrational pricing. 2/ Why Tier 2 or 3 venture firms keep raising: a) It's hard to distinguish luck from skill for an LP. The GP has a good story for every co - success or failure - in their portfolio. b) The number of LPs is growing, so even if a few of your present set of LPs are unhappy, there are always newer LPs. c) Because the feedback loops are extremely long, it can take over a decade for some of your stories to play out. By the time the true results become known, you could have raised two or three funds. 3/ Fascinating point on research on fund size versus valuation returns by Joshua Leonard at the University of Chicago. His finding is that absolute size matters much less than the shift or the change from one fund to the other, if the size more than doubles, then it's an issue. I found this interesting because Blume's Fund 4 nearly tripled from the previous fund (we were not the only guilty ones). Let's hope the founders of Fund 4 can prove this wrong:) 4/ Mel Williams described the two characteristics of the best GPs he's met: - Their ability to approach the market from a contrarian standpoint, such as Thiel during the Airbnb round when nobody else wanted to do it, he says. Over time, these managers' contrarian conviction itself creates the investment signal for others to follow. - The ability to concentrate deeply into the winners. Concentration into winners is how the highest performing funds in the industry have generated their returns, he says, and it is a distinct skill from picking them. He says that the latter is harder because it's difficult to sleep easily with this level of concentration. 5/ Interesting points made on concentration: a) He says that he's beginning to see elite GPs raising larger funds but with fewer checks planned (11-13 vs prev fund sizes of 25), and these GPs are not folks who struggle for access. b) TrueBridge themselves are choosing to concentrate more on the GPs they back. He says when their flagship grew from 500 to eventually 900 million, the growth, he said, came from increasing allocations into the existing top managers. They reduced the number of managers they back from 18 or so in their first fund to 11 or 12 in fund 8. He says they force-rank the portfolio every year, and the managers in the bottom three slots are always at risk of leaving. 6/ The 3 criteria he looks for in seed managers: - Solid track record - A distinctive angle / approach / right to win / proprietary deal flow for a certain network of founders - Personal brand given at seed your firm brand is not as strong as say a Sequoia
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Love this!
Announcing Signalful I listen to a lot of long interviews and podcasts with founders, investors and operators. Most of them have a dozen compelling insights, buried in 1-2 hours of conversation. I’m excited to announce a new service, Signalful, which distills the best ideas from these interviews into 5-minute executive summaries: numbered signals, each one tied to the timestamp in the video, so you can jump to the source. @signalfulnews is both a 3x-per-week newsletter that delivers these summaries directly to your inbox, and a website that archives all historical summaries. My team and I summarize 50+ podcasts every week, and each newsletter features one - the rest are on the website. Today's featured summary is Alexandr Wang on the @DavidSenra's @founderspodcast Here are three signals from the interview: 1. Meta built Muse, its personal agent, with fewer than 200 people in 7 months. Wang says the small group was on purpose, because a big organization produces a Frankenstein of many PMs' ideas. 2. The 100 Row Spreadsheet: The model team kept a spreadsheet of more than 100 behaviors a personal agent needs, built an eval for each, and trained against all of them. Many checkpoints were green on 80 rows and red on 20. That wasn't good enough to ship. 3. Wang says a modern consumer product has to work as a screenshot, because screenshots travel through group chats. There are 12 signals in the full summary, including his account of the Scale deal with Facebook. New Signalful newsletter editions go out Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Each one has one free summary and several more for paid members. My goal is for Signalful to massively increases signal-to-noise ratio for subscribers. Subscribe at the link below, and follow Signalful at @signalfulnews on X
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Deedy you are right about some aspects of the past, but its more nuanced then this, and likely different going forward. am sticking to the perspective of founders (vs employees & vcs). If you were building for India consumer, the last 5 years have shown that you absolutely could have built significant cos and personal wealth by being in india (>$5b cos - flipkart, zomato, lenskart, meesho, groww, paytm, phonepe, swiggy, policybazaar, nykaa… ) and execs at these places also saw a lot of value being created. I was in a room of startup founders by @ETAwards on friday night and there were a lot of billionaires there! and 50+ other venture backed cos in the $500m-5b range, where also the outcomes have been significant for founders and execs. if you were building for global software buyers, you need to be closer to the customers and the US is that. market insights matter more then cost of engineering. many global software cos have large india teams (zscaler! wealthiest indian american in the US) but the bulk of the value to founders and execs are in the market they serve. it still makes sense for most global founders to be in the US if thats what you are creating, and we have good examples like freshworks, postman and composio where cos started in india and migrated over various points in the past decade. other areas like manufacturing/“deeptech”/atoms based businesses, India has significant advantages and we are just starting to see the outcomes. ather energy ($6b), skyroot ($3b), zetwerk (going public soon) are showing the way, and these cos have far lower costs to develop and manufacture vs other places. finally, there is something to be said for patriotism or impact on soceity. zomato helps employ 1% of india (or something like that) and thats a stepping stone to a brighter future for many. skyroot inspired some young kid somewhere that said i’m gonna do that too. building a enterprise sw product in palo alto is awesome, but for some gives less intrinsic motivation. building in india has many challenges (most self inclicted), but a good choice for many smart people vs a couple of decades ago! we do now have healthy capital markets, a better policy environment, and very smart young people (now enabled by AI!). we absolutely need more risk capital and some of us are working to do that!
The smartest Indians continue to come to build in the US for the simple reason that the economic incentives are far far better. Perplexity ($20B), Skild ($14B+), Baseten ($13B), Together ($8B), Glean ($8B), Modal ($5B), Rubrik ($25B), Harness ($5B), Blacksmith, Parallel, Greptile, CodeRabbit, Composio, Distyl ($2B), Resolve, Luma, Cartesia, Wispr, dMatrix, Arize and many more - all started by at least one Indian-born founder. The US is a far easier to raise capital in with far less dilution. Most Indian companies are switching where they're domiciled to get access to the US capital markets. Every single Indian venture firm is trying very hard to invest in the US or risk not participating in the AI race (ironically, the management fees of venture firms are so high in India relatively that this is the one group that net of carry actually has incentive to be in India because they take home well north of a living wage whether or not funds perform do) While Zomato ($35B now, $8B at IPO) might be the biggest outcome in Indian venture, Cursor ($60B), Reflection (potentially $20B+), World Labs ($8B), OpenRouter ($8B), HuggingFace ($12B) and of course the $1T+ big labs quickly make those outcomes seem small and happen on a much smaller time scale, with much higher IRR. Engineers at these startups regularly get paid $1M/yr, and make $10M+ on exit. Even in BigTech, it is trivial to pull up levels fyi and see that if you're L6/L7+ with ~10 years of experience, you're making $1M/yr there too. And of course, we all know the slew of Indian CEOs of companies here, not to mention a huge bench of lesser known executives across the board in public and private companies. I say all this because every time there is a slight immigration hiccup in the US, I hear the online pleas to "build in India", I struggle to understand why most engineers, academics or founders would do that net of desire to be close to family, failure to obtain visa and devout patriotism. This is not a superiority thing or a US v India thing. The economic incentives at least for technologists to being in the US outweigh India by at least an order of magnitude.
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