Tesla Robotaxi - How Many Vehicles are Needed?
If we assume each vehicle produces 150 paid miles per day, then 137 vehicles were needed last week (assuming 100% fleet utilization).
By the week of the Q3 earnings call nearly 500 vehicles will be needed (if the 17% weekly growth rate persists).
And by the end of the year the fleet would be around 2,000 vehicles.
By the way, if this 17% growth continues for another year, Tesla would need about 1 million vehicles in the Robotaxi fleet (not a prediction - just how exponential math works).
One Million Paid Autonomous Robotaxi Miles
And there we have it - two official data points from Ashok!
We can now infer a weekly growth rate from the 43 days from the Q2 earnings call to yesterday (Sept 3rd) and it's 17.06%!
My chart shows 984,969 miles. By Sept 3rd we can add another ~21,000 miles, so it would be over 1 million.
By the time we get to the Q3 earnings call, assuming the same growth rate, we'll be at about 3.5 million miles.
And by the end of the year it will be over 14 million.
My view is that the weekly growth in miles, with the introduction of the Cybercab into the Robotaxi fleet, could actually accelerate from here.