A few reflections from travelling (w/ @ed_shackle, @sebwride++) through data-centre country in Michigan/Ohio in my latest for @TheEconomist. 1/ The issue really is moving votes to the Democrats. That's now visible in our polling, too (h/t @OwenWntr), but also in the scale of on-the-ground discontent. I'm quite a bit more bearish on the prospects for big new data-centre projects in blue states after the trip. 2/ I really didn't hear that much direct anti-AI sentiment. The mood much more was a cocktail of worries about local harms (water, electricity bills, house prices), plus a total distrust of businesses and politicians. Against that backdrop, assurances about the water usage of closed-loop cooling systems really don't cut through. And, though developers will doubtless get cannier at this, cash payoffs to communities can easily look like subterfuge and do little to help. 3/ Still, moratoriums are at this stage much more bark than bite (h/t @mayabarkin for the data there). Only about 2GW seems actually delayed. The bigger risk is deterring newer projects, but I'd still guess that affects the exact locations more than whether the build-out happens at all. 4/ The question I'm left with is what comes after data centres as the big AI political issue into next year. A few obvious candidates are: a big cyberattack, the sheer scale of AI-related PAC spending in the 2028 cycle, the early innings of job displacement. 5/ What the data-centre issue should tell us, I think, is that voters' hostility to new technologies that change their lives in unpleasant ways is vast—especially when those changes are less positive-sum than data centres. So, however mad you expect AI as a technology to make the next few years, scale that up accordingly to account for a much more scrambled politics. Do take a look at my piece on this here: economist.com/united-states/… And at our Checks and Balances podcast, where I contributed a short diary featuring lots of conversations with voters economist.com/podcasts/2026/…

Abdul El-Sayed or Mike Rogers? We went to a key swing state Michigan and listened to voters discuss which senate candidate they’re leaning towards and whether the midterms are about Donald Trump. The focus group was carried out by PF Global for Channel 4 News. You can watch the full report here: piped.video/watch?v=xJOpM2Rw…

EXCLUSIVE: Most U.K. respondents feel Labour under Andy Burnham has “a real chance of winning” the next general election, according to a new POLITICO Poll. The tone is “actually very different to where it was under Keir Starmer,” @sebwride said at #POLITICOPub.

3/ People can, I think, reasonably disagree about whether this is a problem. (I think it is.) But British voters hate it. Public First ran some polling for us, and found that approval of AI writing on the job is lower for politicians than any other profession.

In an effort to say something nuanced on UK polling atm - Burnhams week could have gone much worse as @TimRoss_1 shows with the latest @politico poll, but polls will be immensely unstable while Farage is fighting a by election and Burnham’s new to the public. Give it a few weeks.

Many Americans can’t explain the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, our new poll found. Those who can are more likely to say it has helped the wealthy. One in three said the megabill had hurt their bottom line – a frustrating situation for top Republicans.🧵 🔗politi.co/4vO94tB

A surprisingly bipartisan lack of confidence in explaining what the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is all about in our latest poll with @politico

Our latest @politico poll finds Americans tend to overestimate local gas price increases under Trump, right as affordability is becoming a key midterm issue

Gas prices are high. Americans think they’re even higher. 3 in 5 Americans believe gas prices in their area have risen by more than they actually have, according to an analysis of our new poll results. politico.com/news/2026/07/24…

Really enjoyed conducting this focus group in Makerfield this week. Clear that Burnham is running in a constituency that truly embodies many of the frustrations that have shaped UK politics for the last decade - question is, can his personal brand breakthrough

Public First's April poll for POLITICO shows traditional interest groups (eg. fossil fuels) divide opinion, with partisan backers as well as opposition. But some of the newer groups (eg. cryptocurrency) do not have those backers, and face an uphill battle both sides of the aisle

Interesting findings on where Tommy Robinson's supporters now sit in our electoral politics from Public First's UK @politico Poll. 50% of those with positive views towards Robinson would vote Reform, making up a third of their base. Enough to matter if they win an election...

'I think people who are looking for him to sweep in - the way that Boris Johnson did temporarily - I think may be disappointed' Rachel Wolf, who co-wrote the 2019 Conservative manifesto, predicts difficulties ahead for Andy Burnham if he becomes Prime Minister #Newsnight

More great findings from the POLITICO Poll on the incoming gerrymandering war. Both parties support it, both parties would use it to win (not just to cancel each other out). Large numbers of voters now see the boundaries being at least as impactful as the votes, if not more so

It's fascinating when voters' views swing just on question wording In our latest POLITICO poll, a substantial number of Democrats who back the principles of the Voting Rights Act support the redistricting of majority-minority districts when it's framed as a counter to the GOP

Just 6% say Labour has changed things for the better in our poll with POLITICO - most of Labour's own voters say they've not changed things enough. Whoever ends up leading Labour, they must tackle the view that politicians don't change things, or we'll be back here again

Public First’s Port Talbot research written up in @thetimes. @ed_shackle and I spent 6 days in the town speaking to locals about how the closure of the last blast furnace was affecting the community. Great trip! thetimes.com/article/55ac2bd…