Subscribe to Truth & Consequences; non-res Fellow, Stimson Center, Is War Worth It?, MSNOW, 70s Movie Podcast, bit.ly/3PSy7ww NOT Trump’s lawyer, Zionist
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Some personal news: after six and a half years as an opinion columnist at the Boston Globe I am leaving the paper ... and launching a subscription Substack newsletter, Truth and Consequences (truthandcons.substack.com)
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Democrats are such wimps.
WaPo: Democrats can’t believe their luck. No really, they can’t.
Karen Shanafelter needed one word to describe how she feels about the positive polls she is seeing for Democrats nationwide: “Dread.”
Shanafelter’s trepidation is common among the most die-hard Democrats. Despite seeing poll after poll that shows the party in position to win key races in Tuesday’s midterm elections, many are filled with unease, like traumatized sports fans who’ve seen their team blow it in the fourth quarter too many times.
washingtonpost.com/politics/…
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On this of all days, it’s important roremember what unites as a nation: keeping @Bencjacobs as far away as possible from our loved ones
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Michael A. Cohen (NOT TRUMP’S FORMER FIXER) retweeted
A reminder no matter what happens tonight: Majorities are never permanent. Coalitions are never permanent. Every election cycle is different and based on different factors. Do not fight the next election based on the previous one.
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Here are the three likeliest options for Republicans on Tuesday: Wave, Tsunami, or Extinction-level event... and while I lean toward tsunami, the latter is hardly outside the realm of possibility... truthandcons.substack.com/p/…
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I feel like it’s gotta be KY-06 because it closes early and will give us a sense of whether the red state blue wave is happening … or AL-2 because it’ll tell us if Black turnout is really that high, which has major implications for Senate races across the South
Time for a time honored tradition: the one district crystal ball!
If you could know the results of one House district — outcome and margin — that would tell you the most about the rest of the midterms, what would it be and why?
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Michael A. Cohen (NOT TRUMP’S FORMER FIXER) retweeted
Also @natsfert will be joining us and who knows what other guests we line up. It’s going to be a must watch. Michael and I going for like 8 hours? Who knows what might come out of our mouths.
Join @brianros1 and me Tuesday night for "Two Bearded Jews Are Going To Spend All Night Talking Politics." We're kicking off at 7:00, and we'll be talking all night.
We'll be joined by special guests: @SeanTrende, @sarahmccammon, @JessicaHuseman, @MikeGrunwald (to break down the results in Florida), @JordanAckerMI (talking Michigan), @kohenari (on what's happening in Nebraska), and many more. This’ll be a fun one, so you won't want to miss it!
open.substack.com/live-strea…
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Michael A. Cohen (NOT TRUMP’S FORMER FIXER) retweeted
I wrote about this today: I get why Democrats are nervous, but it took me probably 1200 words to lay out all of the evidence for a huge night for Democrats. Meanwhile the Republican case boils down pray for a huge polling error. There are no facts. Column below.
I don't mean to troll James, but I'm genuinely fascinated by the psychology of political partisanship in America.
Democrats have been overperforming in special elections for nearly two years, and the polls have shown them consistently ahead for months ... and yet they refuse to believe it.
Meanwhile, Republicans are about to get slaughtered, and they're out here projecting public confidence.
There's a larger lesson here about the ruthlessness and risk tolerance of the two parties that spills into the policy and legislative realm. Democrats hedge on their policy plans because they believe their political advantage is ephemeral and not true. They never want to go aggro because they're always worried about a political backlash from an electorate that they assume will turn on them.
Meanwhile, Republicans plunge ahead, creating their own reality, demonstrating indifference to public opinion, and not worrying about losing public support.
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Michael A. Cohen (NOT TRUMP’S FORMER FIXER) retweeted
Come for the analysis of Michigan elections, stay for the hatred of the Green Bay Packers.
Join @brianros1 and me Tuesday night for "Two Bearded Jews Are Going To Spend All Night Talking Politics." We're kicking off at 7:00, and we'll be talking all night.
We'll be joined by special guests: @SeanTrende, @sarahmccammon, @JessicaHuseman, @MikeGrunwald (to break down the results in Florida), @JordanAckerMI (talking Michigan), @kohenari (on what's happening in Nebraska), and many more. This’ll be a fun one, so you won't want to miss it!
open.substack.com/live-strea…
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Join @brianros1 and me Tuesday night for "Two Bearded Jews Are Going To Spend All Night Talking Politics." We're kicking off at 7:00, and we'll be talking all night.
We'll be joined by special guests: @SeanTrende, @sarahmccammon, @JessicaHuseman, @MikeGrunwald (to break down the results in Florida), @JordanAckerMI (talking Michigan), @kohenari (on what's happening in Nebraska), and many more. This’ll be a fun one, so you won't want to miss it!
open.substack.com/live-strea…
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Great piece by @nancyayoussef and @JonLemire in the Atlantic on the state of play with the Iran War ... theatlantic.com/national-sec…
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Michael A. Cohen (NOT TRUMP’S FORMER FIXER) retweeted
SHOCKING: @WspuShomrim and the @NYPD90Pct are currently investigating a hate crime following the discovery of antisemitic graffiti spray-painted on several Jewish school buses.
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Michael A. Cohen (NOT TRUMP’S FORMER FIXER) retweeted
Notably, we’ve gotten 2 Democratic polls showing a tied race in 3 days and 0 Republican polls refuting them.
Lincoln Park poll | 10/29-10/31 LV
US Senate Louisiana 2026
🟦Jamie Davis 47%
🟥Julia Letlow 47%
(Democratic pollster)
Link to poll: documentcloud.org/documents/…
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Michael A. Cohen (NOT TRUMP’S FORMER FIXER) retweeted
Jews
are allowed
to vote
for their own selfish interests
in a democracy.
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I don't mean to troll James, but I'm genuinely fascinated by the psychology of political partisanship in America.
Democrats have been overperforming in special elections for nearly two years, and the polls have shown them consistently ahead for months ... and yet they refuse to believe it.
Meanwhile, Republicans are about to get slaughtered, and they're out here projecting public confidence.
There's a larger lesson here about the ruthlessness and risk tolerance of the two parties that spills into the policy and legislative realm. Democrats hedge on their policy plans because they believe their political advantage is ephemeral and not true. They never want to go aggro because they're always worried about a political backlash from an electorate that they assume will turn on them.
Meanwhile, Republicans plunge ahead, creating their own reality, demonstrating indifference to public opinion, and not worrying about losing public support.
I agree with Joe. My predictions that Dems end up with 235 in the House, and a 50-50 Senate. But that reflects my basic risk aversion and my right-brain suspicion that the polls are missing something, rather than what the data is saying (at least about the Senate).
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Michael A. Cohen (NOT TRUMP’S FORMER FIXER) retweeted
Let’s be real, this is why so many elites haven’t abandoned Trump. They don’t believe the data.
That’s when huge crashes happen though.
Deep down, I can't imagine anyone really believes Collins is going to lose, or that Texas will elect a statewide Dem. I mean, either might happen. But I doubt anyone *really* believes it.
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