Having to ask my wife for money to pay bills. For a few months now, she has had a separate bank account because I drained ours to cover margin calls but I’ve now drained my own bank account to the point that I don’t have enough to cover bills. So now I have to see if she can transfer money to my account to pay the bills about to hit because these markets aren’t recovering enough for me to get out of margin call and put money back. Exhausting stuff. Everyone is getting wiped.

Taking the stage at @TomorrowXSummit: Stan Druckenmiller (@standuquesne), Chief Executive Officer of Duquesne Family Office, and Iliana Bouzali (@ilianabouzali), Global Head of Derivatives at Morgan Stanley (@MorganStanley) $MS. November 17-18 at the Moody Center in Austin. Hosted with @GavinSBaker and @atreidesmgmt, @antoniogracias and Valor Equity Partners, @rbiscardi and @iconnections_io. Registration link below.

Memory is probably a short for the rest of this year and next year. Even more than that the whole WFE tied to memory is cooked. I don’t think we will ever see HBM5.

Bottom line ERCOT’s additions plus recips, converted miners and smaller sites should more than cover the ~21 GW of new US power I think is actually needed. Even the full ~40 GW gap looks far more manageable than the market fears. So power is a solvable constraint, even if we don’t assume regulations ease after midterms or people rely on outside sources more.

At $WULF, we start with power. We always have. Microsoft's reported UK data center setback is a reminder: demand for compute is one thing. Delivering the power to support it is another. Our team has been developing energy infrastructure for decades. That's our advantage.

卧槽，原来这周砸崩 AI 股的 CoreWeave，玩法跟借钱拿地、盖楼、卖期房的开发商一模一样。 这事的导火索在本周二。Chamath 在 X 上指出 CoreWeave 一笔债的收益率到了 15%，马斯克在底下回了一个词“yikes”（哎哟，吓人），直接上了一堆新闻。第二天 CoreWeave 和同类公司全线大跌，CoreWeave、IREN、Nebius 这类“新云”公司这周都跌了约 20%。周五 CoreWeave 又跌 11.9%，一周跌了约 25%。 硅谷最火的科技投资播客 All-In 最新一期，Chamath、Sacks、Jason 加上代班的 a16z 联合创始人 Ben Horowitz，把它扒了个底朝天。套路很眼熟：签下微软大单、拿合同去借钱、买英伟达芯片收租。已经借了约 350 亿美元，还得再借约 350 亿，75% 的收入绑在三家客户身上。 更憋屈的是它把“期房卖早了”。长约都是固定价格，现在现货算力价格涨上去了，它多赚不到。Chamath 甚至建议它干脆赔钱毁掉部分合同、改卖现货，说这中间差了两三百亿美元。 现在债主先慌了。Chamath 算了笔账：它的违约保险这周涨到约 953 个基点，5 年违约概率约 55%，“基本是抛硬币”，“这不是我说的，是保险市场说的”。一笔 GPU 贷款的利率已经涨到 15%。他也承认表面上不危险，资产约 780 到 800 亿美元，债约 350 亿；但他团队估算，离触发债务条款只差正负 50 亿美元左右，这是一场“信心游戏”。 Sacks 觉得这只是波动：它实际付的利息还是 9.6%，二级市场打折影响的是以后借钱的成本。最该盯的是回本周期，CoreWeave 要 2.5 年，马斯克的 SpaceX 卖现货算力约 1 年就回本。 Ben 则说 a16z 一家这类公司都不投。1999 年带宽每兆 1500 美元，只能签三年长约，到 2001 年跌到 50 美元，借钱囤带宽的“直接死了”。不过他也承认现在不一样，算力严重短缺，亚马逊 CEO 说“2028 年以后都卖光了”。 最后 Chamath 点破了真正的死穴：10 年期美债要是涨到 5.5% 到 6%，“所有靠借钱赚利差的生意都会被碾死”。接下来一个月见分晓，就看它还能不能借到那 350 亿。

Dan Ives says he just landed from Korea and memory chip demand is running 13 to 1 against supply [ Are we at a point where we should start questioning the ability to finance? ] "Financing, especially given what we see in yields? I mean, it's going to be a risk factor, but I just keep going down to demand." "I literally just landed from Korea. And memory, we're seeing memory chip demand supply 13 to 1." "I mean, the backlog that CoreWeave's seeing is just tremendous. So I'm not going to say there's not going to be pressure. But I do think the market's way overreacted here."