Research for the RWA stack. Private credit, fixed-rate lending, treasuries, stablecoins.

Onchain
NEW ARTICLE IS LIVE! (link in second tweet) I checked ~120 lending markets on @Morpho, @kamino, @aave and @eulerfinance to see where RWAs actually sit. 10 things I found: 1. $2.4B of RWAs are used as collateral in DeFi lending. $1.8B is borrowed against them. 2. Morpho holds most of it: 59%. Kamino has 21%, Aave 20%, Euler under 1%. 3. 87% is private credit. Tokenized Treasuries are under 1%. 4. Six issuers make up most of the big markets: @maplefinance, @HastraFi, @onrefinance, @re, @MidasRWA, @humafinance. 5. The largest single market is PRIME from @HastraFi on @Morpho: $234M deposited, $168M borrowed. 6. People borrow 75 cents for every $1 they deposit. With private credit, they borrow and loop. With stocks and gold, they mostly just hold. 7. Fixed-rate borrowing only really happens on @kamino. 43% of its RWA loans are fixed. 8. Morpho has 28 fixed-rate RWA markets on Midnight. Almost nothing is borrowed in them yet. 9. Lenders are running out of room. Morpho's biggest RWA markets are 84–91% lent out, mostly through @SteakhouseFi and @gauntlet_xyz vaults. 10. 1 in 5 dollars in Morpho's biggest RWA markets is priced by the issuer itself (@MidasRWA, @paretocredit), not an independent oracle like @chainlink.
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Full article. Subscribe it, pretend you'll read it later, then actually read it ↓ therawbyte.substack.com/p/wh…
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NEW ARTICLE IS LIVE! (link in second tweet) This is one of the pieces I've loved working on most, and spent a lot of time getting right. The big idea: DeFi lending has never had demand of its own. It rented it from the crypto cycle. When prices fall, borrowing dries up. Aave's USDT lenders went from 13% to 2%. Private credit is the first asset that breaks that loop. It pays for its own loan, so people borrow against it whether crypto is up or down. > 21% of tokenized RWAs > 90% of RWA collateral on @Morpho, @kamino and @aave > borrowing against it up 9x in a year And the constraint has flipped: the pools are nearly full, so now borrowers are waiting on lenders. This is part one. Follow-ups are coming on the risks, and what has to get better for this to scale. With data and work from: @RWA_xyz @DefiLlama @Dune @chainlink @JupiterExchange @SkyEcosystem @SteakhouseFi @gauntlet_xyz @paretocredit @maplefinance @HastraFi @re @onrefinance @MidasRWA @humafinance @TenorFinance @term_labs @pendle_fi @FissionXYZ @symbioticfi @multiliquid_xyz @redstone_defi
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Here's a glimpse of what's inside. There's $39.4B of tokenized RWAs today. Treasuries are the biggest slice at $14B. Credit is only 21%. So you'd expect DeFi lenders to love Treasuries. They don't. On Morpho, Kamino and Aave, $14B of tokenized Treasuries puts just $5.5M to work as collateral. Credit puts $2.05B. That's 90% of all RWA collateral on those three lenders. Why? Every asset has to pass two tests to work as DeFi collateral: > Does it pay for its own loan? > Can a lender price it and sell it at any hour? Most RWAs fail one of them. Treasuries: easy to price, but they pay 3–4%. Borrowing against them costs about the same. Nothing left to loop. Gold: earns 0% while it sits as collateral. Every loan against it starts in the red. Stocks: the price feed goes dark from Friday night to Sunday night. A stock can sit frozen for 48+ hours while its token keeps trading. Lenders cut leverage hard to survive it. Kamino caps MSTRx at 30% LTV. So traders skip loans and use perps instead: $8.6B of open interest. Credit: passes both. It's priced off the loans behind it, so it has a price on Saturday too. And it earns more than it costs to borrow against. That gap is the whole trade. AUTO, a token backed by US auto loans, earns 10.3% on Kamino. Borrow against it at a fixed 5.3%, loop it 3x, and you're at ~20%. That's why loans backed by credit on Morpho and Kamino went from $137M to $1.2B in a year. And the biggest credit tokens now borrow cheaper than BTC on Morpho. The catch? Lenders are running out of room. Credit lending pools are 89–100% lent out. The article also covers: > How a private loan actually becomes DeFi collateral > Who's funding these markets and why they're capped > Why fixed-rate money is the missing piece > What can still break: hidden losses, slow exits, and two issuers holding 58% of all credit collateral Full piece drops later today.
I've been sitting on this article for a while. It's finally going out later today. (Fair warning: it's data-heavy.) I pulled every major RWA category into one place to answer a single question: Why is credit the only RWA that consistently wins as DeFi collateral? Inside: > Why Treasuries don’t pay enough to borrow against > Why gold generates nothing as collateral > Why stocks go “dark” every weekend (and why traders park $8.6B in perps instead) > Why credit is 21% of RWAs, but ~90% of collateral on Morpho, Kamino, and Aave > The backstory: from Maker’s Black Thursday to the rate cycle > What could still break Data & sources: @Morpho @kamino @aave @tokenterminal @DefiLlama @chainlink @RWA_xyz Dropping later today on @therawbyte substack.
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NEW ARTICLE IS LIVE! Putting private credit onchain does not make the loan better. The borrower is still the same. The default risk is still the same. Recovery still happens in court. What actually changes: For investors > Lower minimums on some products > More frequent reporting > Faster transfer of the claim >Ability to use the token as collateral in certain DeFi markets For originators > New capital from stablecoin holders and DeFi > Faster funding in some cases New risks: smart contracts, oracles, and a funding base that can leave faster Redemptions still follow the fund’s rules. Many products remain gated, queued, or quarterly. Secondary markets for most tokens are thin. JAAA shrank 61% in one quarter and paid every exit, only because AAA CLOs can be sold. A fund holding loans nobody can buy would have had to gate. The exit worked because the underlying was liquid, not because it was onchain. The credit risk stayed offchain. Only the claim moved onchain. Full breakdown of what actually changes (and what doesn’t) when private credit moves onchain (check second tweet)
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What do you actually own when you buy a tokenized stock? If you buy NVIDIA onchain, you might assume you own a piece of NVIDIA. But that depends on who issued the token and how they structured it. There are 3 main models, and the differences matter more than most people realise. 1. Linked / wrapper tokens Think of buying a ticket linked to a gold bar sitting in someone else's vault. The ticket tracks the value of the gold, but you don't own the bar directly. That's roughly how many tokenized stocks work. An issuer holds shares (or arranges exposure to them) and issues tokens linked to their value. You get the economic exposure, and depending on the product, dividends too. But you may not have shareholder rights. Your claim could be against the issuer rather than a direct claim to the underlying shares. If the issuer runs into trouble, the legal structure determines what you can recover and how. xStocks and Ondo offer products in this broad category, though their specific structures differ. 2. Custodial interests Here, the idea is closer to having a gold bar held in custody for you. The underlying shares are held through a custodian, with the arrangement designed to give investors rights in relation to those shares. That's different from simply having a claim against an issuer. But it doesn't automatically make you the company's registered shareholder. Your actual rights depend on the custody and legal arrangements. Dinari, Coinbase and Binance's bStocks have offerings that need to be assessed under their respective structures. 3. Issuer-sponsored shares This is the model where the token represents the actual share itself, with ownership recorded through a blockchain-based system. Instead of holding a token that merely tracks a share or gives you a claim connected to one, you hold the security itself. That doesn't mean every token labelled a share automatically gives you direct ownership. The legal issuance and ownership records have to support it. Securitize and Superstate work on tokenized securities infrastructure, but the rights depend on the specific offering. The point is simple: Two tokens can track the exact same stock, trade at almost the same price, and still give you very different legal rights. So when you're buying tokenized equities, don't stop at the ticker or the price. Ask who issued the token, what backs it, what you legally own, and what happens if something goes wrong.
YOUR STOCK. THEIR TOKENS. WHAT DO YOU ACTUALLY OWN WHEN YOU BUY TOKENISED STOCKS? iykyk why this hook! consider me even more pilled on tokenised stocks
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Tokenised chips are growing FASTTTTT!
After crypto companies, the biggest bet in tokenised stocks is chips. Working on the next part of my RWA liquidity gap series - tokenized stocks and I’ve found something genuinely interesting (at least to me). The top of the market is what you’d expect. Crypto and digital-asset companies lead at $1.28B. Strategy, Circle, Coinbase, Securitize. Crypto money buying crypto-flavoured equity. No surprise there. What’s more interesting is #2: semiconductors and AI hardware. They started 2026 at $51M. Today they’re at $761M. That’s 14.8x in under ten months, more than twice as fast as the crypto names grew over the same stretch. And it isn’t just an NVIDIA story. Micron sits right alongside NVIDIA at the top, SanDisk is third, and SK Hynix shows up too. Memory chips are carrying a big part of this. For a lot of people around the world, getting exposure to US memory names or a Korean chipmaker like SK Hynix through a normal brokerage is hard. Onchain, it’s a token away. So tokenised stocks aren’t just copying Wall Street onto a blockchain. They’re showing where demand exists but access doesn’t. More in the next part of the series.
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Tokenised stocks are still the smallest major RWA category, but their growth is outpacing every other category by a wide margin. Market value rose from $630M to $3.42B in 12 months (+441%). What makes this interesting is the combination of expanding product availability, new distribution channels and growing onchain participation. The next question is whether this growth translates into deeper liquidity, more active markets and greater utility across DeFi. Issuance is the starting point. What the market builds around these assets is what matters next.
Tokenised stocks are the fastest-growing RWA category, despite being the smallest. In May 2026, tokenised stocks added $549M in a single month. In July, they added another $511M. Two months. More than $1B in additional market value. Here’s what that growth says about the market: 1. The smallest market is growing the fastest As of October 19, 2026, tokenised stocks reached $3.42B, up from $630M a year earlier. That’s a 441% increase in 12 months, adding $2.79B in market value. For context, the other major tokenised RWA categories grew at a much slower pace: • US Treasury Debt: $8.87B → $14.50B (+63%) • Tokenised Credit: $4.63B → $8.13B (+76%) • Commodities: $3.15B → $5.29B (+68%) • Tokenised Stocks: $0.63B → $3.42B (+441%) Treasuries remain the largest market, but tokenised stocks are the clear growth outlier. 2. The growth came in sudden jumps The market spent much of 2025 moving within a relatively narrow range of $300M–$700M. Then came several sharp increases: • September 2025: approximately +$302M • May 2026: approximately +$549M • July 2026: approximately +$511M The major breakout began around April 2026. May delivered the largest monthly increase, and July brought another substantial jump. September 2025: +$302M: @xStocksFi scales up Market value jumped from $335M to $637M. xStocks had launched in June across @krakenfx , @Bybit_Official and @solana, offering around 60 tokenised US stocks and ETFs. Its expansion, alongside Ondo’s tokenised-equity offering, helped bring these assets to more platforms and users. May 2026: +$549M: the breakout Market value surged from $1.20B to $1.75B, the largest monthly increase. @Ondo's expansion across chains, growing interest in AI and semiconductor stocks, and rising holder counts may have contributed to the acceleration. July 2026: +$511M: major platforms enter Market value climbed from $1.94B to $2.45B. @binance bStocks launched in June and scaled rapidly, while @RobinhoodApp expanded its tokenised-stock offering. Tokenised-equity trading volume reached approximately $18.2B in July, reflecting a sharp increase in market activity. Tokenised stocks grew in sharp bursts rather than through steady monthly increases. New products, wider exchange distribution and rising participation coincided with these jumps, although the exact contribution of each factor remains uncertain.
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Tokenized Treasuries have reached $14.82B. But how much of that capital is actually being put to work in DeFi? Across 8 major products representing ~$10.1B, only ~2% shows up as DeFi Active TVL. Roughly two-thirds of that deployment backs stablecoins rather than flowing into lending or trading. The gap isn't just about tokenization. Borrowing economics, transfer restrictions and concentrated ownership all shape what happens after these assets go onchain. Treasuries may be bringing traditional capital onto crypto rails, but making that capital usable across DeFi is a different challenge. A closer look at why the biggest RWA category is still largely parked ↓
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The best way to learn is to change the room you are in for a while! @therawbyte currently at @ns, the world @balajis is putting together.
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part 2 is out. we’re getting deeper into fixed-rate lending ↓
Part 2: How Fixed-Rate Lending Works? (whiteboard breakdown ↓)
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We’re back with part 2 of our fixed-rate lending series. We dropped the first video yesterday, go watch that one if you haven’t seen it yet. Today’s episode: what actually is a fixed-rate market? On paper, it sounds pretty straightforward: lock the rate, lock the time, know your funding cost. And then, somewhere around slide 37 of the research doc, we realised: oh. fixing the rate creates an entirely new set of problems. So in this one, we’re breaking down what a fixed-rate market actually solves for the new wave of borrowers, and why the moment you fix the rate, the liquidity gets... complicated. Video 2 drops later today.
Why is DeFi lending moving toward fixed rates ↓ (whiteboard breakdown)
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you need to spend 1:10 mins of your life on this video. What could go wrong? I’ve done the math. Probably nothing.
Why is DeFi lending moving toward fixed rates ↓ (whiteboard breakdown)
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Get ready for video explanation later today!
Almost every lending protocol is launching fixed rates right now. But why? DeFi is starting to finance things like treasuries and private credit, assets where you actually care what your capital costs over the life of the position. A borrowing rate that keeps moving with pool utilization doesn't work so neatly anymore.
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TheRawByte retweeted
This year feels like fixed-rate lending season. Every few weeks, another lending market seems to be announcing a fixed-rate product. And honestly, that’s a good thing. But launching a fixed rate is the easy part. The hard part starts after “5% for six months” is written down. - Who provides that liquidity? - Who holds the duration? - How does the lender get out early? - What happens when the six months are up? That’s the part we’re digging into in our deep dive, live today.
Can I borrow $10M at 5% for six months? That question is why lending protocols are suddenly obsessed with fixed rates. DeFi lending assumed borrowers who could manage a position as rates moved. An RWA desk financing a Treasury or private-credit book can't. It needs a known cost of capital for a defined period. Once borrowing goes fixed-rate, the hard parts move: → Who provides the liquidity, and who takes the duration risk? → What happens when the lender wants out? → What happens when the loan matures? I went through how @Morpho, @TenorFinance, @longbowlend, @term_finances, @kamino, @Loopscale and @flexmeow each answer those three. (SOUND ON!)
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