Research Fellow @joinFAI; opinions mine not theirs | Working to make US transportation faster, cheaper, more reliable, & less safe | prev: Econ & CS @UChicago
Inside the Beltway, USA
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some important descriptive statistics which more people in transit should be aware of
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Finally, actual YIMBY content coming from the british yimby magazine
I'm in @WorksInProgMag's letters section this week, arguing that British YIMBYism's preoccupation with beauty is a massive waste of time and resources.
Beauty is marginal. There are bigger problems to solve in British housing—they're just all a bit less sexy.
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The "worse than anything except rent control" is a good quote because it offers some comparison. "The worst thing that can happen to a city" is more accurate but it strips the reference class.
Perhaps "worse than anything except 60s Detroit" works better
Lindbeck’s quote (it’s not Summers’) is outrageous because we know bombing and massive fires are better for cities than rent control
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All the rhetoric about "bike lane grifters" and so on has gotten like 50x more annoying since I actually started using ebikes to get around this spring
Calling out bike lanes like this is just willfully making your city less attractive to young people for no reason
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
This is how it worked in 10th century Iceland
Should you be able to sell a lawsuit? Like if I thibk I have a pretty good case and I’m likely to win. But don’t rly wanna bother /take on the risk/ have a high discount rate. Couldn’t I sell it so someone else? Or bundle them and sell as a pack?
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The longer the black space, the funnier this kind of edit becomes
What unique geographical constraint does NYC face that Hong Kong, Seattle, or Tampa Bay does not? Hong Kong faces even greater physical limitations, with residential property exceeding $2,000 per square foot in some markets, compared with approximately $1,540 in Manhattan, $410 in metropolitan Seattle, and $226 in Tampa Bay. Seattle and Tampa also face substantial geographical constraints, yet their housing markets are comparatively affordable because they lack New York's extraordinary concentration of wealth, international investment, and competition for prime real estate.
More importantly, NYC's population remains below its 2020 peak despite rising housing prices, undermining the argument that population growth or physical scarcity alone explains escalating costs. Housing prices reflect purchasing power, location desirability, investment demand, and available supply.
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"will be driven straight to their gate/plane"
as in, it's the same experience as a regular terminal except with the added step of having to be driven somewhere?
i... what???
The airports authority just announced a separate "VIP terminal" will be built at Dulles. Passengers who pay extra will have their own private parking, security screening, personalized check-in & baggage, and they will be driven straight to their gate/plane.
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NJT says union members aren't showing up to work, union says NJT needs to hire more people. It's during disputes like these that I get most frustrated by the existence of unions, there must be some communication failure here
Three years ago @NJTRANSIT riders thought the problem of trains cancelled because of “train crew availability” was fixed, with just one train cancelled for that reason in 2023.
So far this year, that number is 803.
I tried to figure out why that is.
northjersey.com/story/news/t…
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
Illinois Metra released a *3 year timeline* to study *how they should do the study* for the *renovation* of a single station, including 2 years of community engagement for the study’s study
FFS please stop "seeking public comment" and please stop "bringing stakeholders to the table" and please just fucking build the fucking thing.
hsrail.org/blog/cascadias-bu…
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
Ark Invest: "Tesla added the Cybercab to its robotaxi fleet. Our research suggests that, at equal utilization rates, Tesla’s operational costs per mile will be ~40% lower than those for Waymo’s next-gen robotaxi."
ARK Invest has just released their new Tesla valuation model, projecting @Tesla could reach a $17.5 trillion valuation by 2031, and upwards of $20.4 trillion in a bull case.
ARK's 2031 Tesla base case: $4,400/share
• ~1M Optimus robots sold externally, generating ~$212B in revenue
• Robotaxi is ~80% of Tesla's enterprise value (down from ~90% in ARK's 2029 model)
• ~8.1M robotaxis deployed, with ~$753B in ride-hail revenue
• Total revenue of ~$1.45T and EBITDA of ~$902B
• Market cap of ~$17.5T
• Tesla's AI infrastructure spend grows from ~$7B to $225B cumulatively
ARK's 2031 Tesla bull case: $5,000/share
• EV revenue (excluding credits): $355B
• Robotaxis: 10M vehicles and $899B in ride-hail revenue
• Energy storage: 2,693 GWh deployed and $193B in revenue
• Optimus: 1.2M robots sold externally and $254B in revenue
• Total revenue: $1.62T
• EBITDA: $1.045T, a 65% margin, with a 72% gross margin
• Market cap: $20.4T
ARK's model does not assume SpaceX and Tesla merge, but they estimate combined SpaceX and Tesla could generate $3.8T in revenue by 2031, with SpaceX contributing ~62%.
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you people can’t do anything oh my god
Seattle added this and it is transformative right up until you get off the train at the airport and have a 3/4 mile covered outdoor walk with luggage, or land from an international flight with jet lag and have over a mile to go and have to wait outside for a train.
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Lucas Pombo (aka Lib Development) retweeted
It's out! You can now read The Bad Economics Handbook. Read my explanations of things people have stupid ideas about, repost my graphs on this website for dunks....or comment if you see a mistake.
jackonomics.substack.com/p/t…
badeconomicshandbook.com
I have written 25,000+ words so far explaining these things in a "Handbook of Bad Economics." Problems:
- General lack of macro knowledge (need to talk about MMT, national debt, do tax cuts pay for themselves)
- Need more articles from major public figures to begin chapters with
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It has been very strange experience to see that literally every NY Post story that makes its way across my feed is an obvious hit piece where it's super clear what kinds of parties are sponsoring or supplying info for said hit piece
Waymo has ordered thousands of Chinese-made cars to expand its US robotaxi fleet - sparking security concerns on Capitol Hill trib.al/BMEKyJy
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NITA seems promising, and it *might* deliver, but calling it a "leader" feels willfully ignorant of practices on Metro North and Caltrain both of which have service similar to that described in the NITA report
Chicago's @Metra (supported by @NITA_Chicago) is really a national leader in turning obsolete commuter rail infrastructure into a useful regional rail network. Very interesting plans, in one of the few states that funds urban transit well. trains.com/pro/passenger/com…
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