I share deep dives on traders and strategies

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Three years ago I published the Qullamaggie deep dive research bundle @TheShortBear called it the best thing since Tim Grittanis work was shared With the help of AI I've now made it into an interactive app Let me know if you want a discount code 👇
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Yesterday I told everyone who had already purchased the original Qullamaggie Deep Dive that they had full access to the app.. Feedback has been good🫡🙏 Very excited for the upcoming updates!
Three years ago I published the Qullamaggie deep dive research bundle @TheShortBear called it the best thing since Tim Grittanis work was shared With the help of AI I've now made it into an interactive app Let me know if you want a discount code 👇
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James Muninn retweeted
This week alone I've tested 9 of fintwits' finest traders' rules on real trades. @ShakePryzby1, half off at +4R: fewer round trips, lower average nitter.siddz.com/Muninn/status/21122287… @jfsrev, three stops: less drawdown, less profit nitter.siddz.com/Muninn/status/21125793… @RossHaber, 2nd close under the 20-day: longer holds, nothing extra nitter.siddz.com/Muninn/status/21128714… @Wordsofrizdom, weekly trend: didn't help nitter.siddz.com/Muninn/status/21129249… @ohiain, breakeven at +3R: a wash nitter.siddz.com/Muninn/status/21130355… @TMLitalia, no buys with T2108 under 30: held up nitter.siddz.com/Muninn/status/21125237… @PradeepBonde, skip 20%+ run-ups into earnings: held up nitter.siddz.com/Muninn/status/21133000… @InvestorsLive, wait 15 min on parabolic shorts: under half the stop-outs nitter.siddz.com/Muninn/status/21135922… @RealSimpleAriel, don't chase the open: right, except the biggest winner nitter.siddz.com/Muninn/status/21129938… Verify everything. In the next update of app.qullamaggiedeepdive.com I will be introducing a new research-desk. Cant' wait to share.
Always study. Always look for edge. @jfsrev has so many brilliant ideas and adaptions. It's not only about bagging those big winners, but also about cutting our losses (smaller). Jeff says that "If your win rate is below 40%, your top priority should be reducing your losses further." I tested it on Qullamaggie's breakout trades. It reduces the drawdown by almost a third, but gives up some profits..
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88% of Qullamaggie's breakout buys were above the 30-week average. @NickSchmidt says one thing he learned from Stan Weinstein "is you never buy a stock under the 30-week." The ones bought under it: 19% winners, against 25% above.
Something I learned from Stan Weinstein is you never buy a stock under the 30-week. A stock below the 30-week is dangerous. All of memory is now below the 30-week besides $MU, which will not be able to diverge from its group for long.
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We don't have to pull charts from the early 2000 to show the emotions conveyed by the charts..
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📝Study work this weekend: Qullamaggie's tightest stops had the fewest winners. Did his tightest charts? WHY "You want tightness before a breakout, not like loose action." Earlier this week I split the breakout buys he showed on his streams into thirds by how far the stop was under the buy. Selling on the first close under the 10-day moving average, the tightest third ended with 17% winners. The widest, 28%. So the tight stop was the worst. This makes sense. But how important is it to have a tight chart? According to Qullamaggie it's very important. THE STUDY (2 to 3 hours) 1. Open 30 breakout entries in date order. Not the pretty ones - there are many, trust me. 2. Scroll the chart so the day before the buy is the last candle. Look only at the 10 days up to it. Write down the highest high and the lowest low. 3. Turn that into a range in %, then divide it by the stock's ADR (its average daily range over the 20 days before). 4. Sort the 30 by that number and split them in three: tight, middle, loose. Then scroll forward to the exits and mark the winners. 5. Count the winners in each third. Then look at his stop on each one: were the tight charts also the tight stops? WHAT I'M AFTER Two win rates: the tightest third and the loosest. If a tight chart works like a tight stop, the tight charts should come out worst again.
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About 56% of the breakouts that got 1R in the trade's favour still ended at a loss.. I used to babysit my trades, and was always bothered when I gave back gains.. don't do that. It happens more often than not.
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Parabolic shorts in liquid stocks is probably the biggest edge we as retail traders can have. Qullamaggie learned shorting small caps from @timothysykes and @InvestorsLive But small caps are a lot more difficult to trade than the more liquid parabolics. For example: waiting out the first 15 minutes cut the stop-outs on parabolic shorts in liquid names by more than half. The stop got more than twice as wide.. Similar concept can be found in small caps: @InvestorsLive on what to look for: "Traps pre market and tops within first 15-30 min before fading off all day." In larger cap this translates to: 1-minute range: stopped out 58.5%, stop 3.5% away 15-minute range: stopped out 22.6%, stop 8.5% away Even if we trade one basket of stocks, we can learn a lot from others..
Traps pre market and tops within first 15-30 min before fading off all day. FOMO is high after $AZTR so everyone chasing $NUZE and doesn't think anything about where they'd be wrong or risk -- just like $TPST ran 1000% and everyone chased gaps next day on $VS $OPGN and $BPTH
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James Muninn retweeted
Every model book trade looks obvious once you know how it ended. So I built a simulator based on Market Wizard Kristjan Qullamaggie. 1,300+ of his real trades, each frozen where he decided. You make the call, then you see what he did. The best part of building it has been the messages. One trader wrote that it "forces you to make decisions on borderline setups." That is the whole reason it exists. A surprising number of his trades aren't pretty. Also available for parabolic shorts and EPs📈
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One of the single best things I’ve done to improve my trading is to review Qullamaggie’s A-Z ‼️Insane we have access to this
Even after making millions, @Qullamaggie kept asking "Where do we sell?" He made over $5,000,000 on Tilray in 2021, selling "too early". Here's his play-by-play. Would you have waited?
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Neglect or negative price action in the prior month is one of the best filters for earnings reactions. Earnings beat, revenue beat, guidance change, gap size.. it doesn't matter compared to the price action in the prior month. @PradeepBonde says "If a stock is rallying in to catalyst it has high probability of failure." I've tested this across our tradable universe. Stocks that ran 20% or more in the month before the report averaged -0.40R a trade. Everything else: +0.04R. If you want to know why it's like this let me know..
One simple filter eliminates most EP, prior price neglect. If a stock is rallying in to catalyst it has high probability of failure. Look at $RKLB recently. Was going sideways for months pre breakout and gaps up slightly on earnings plus theme catalyst. Did 50% plus in few days. That is what to look for. Very few stock meet that criteria. Now days I see many uninformed traders calling any gap as EP without using neglect as qualification so everything is EP to them and as a result high failure.
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Even after making millions, @Qullamaggie kept asking "Where do we sell?" He made over $5,000,000 on Tilray in 2021, selling "too early". Here's his play-by-play. Would you have waited?
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Every model book trade looks obvious once you know how it ended. So I built a simulator based on Market Wizard Kristjan Qullamaggie. 1,300+ of his real trades, each frozen where he decided. You make the call, then you see what he did. The best part of building it has been the messages. One trader wrote that it "forces you to make decisions on borderline setups." That is the whole reason it exists. A surprising number of his trades aren't pretty. Also available for parabolic shorts and EPs📈
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Just got this message. Highly recommended book btw! And addresses why I built this simulator!
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Moving your stop to breakeven when you're up 3-4R is indifferent. 1,625 of 6,150 breakouts got to +3R. Moving the stop to entry saved 354 that came back (+349R), and stopped out 136 that would have done better (-425R). Same story at +4R. So.. its a breakeven decision.
If your trade is up 3 to 4R and you still haven't moved your stop to b/e, you almost deserve to watch it come all the way back and stop you out. That's like winning the lottery, refusing to cash the ticket, and then complaining when you lose it.
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Not chasing the opening print is generally very good advice 83% of Qullamaggie's breakout buys from 9:30 to 9:34 got stopped out. But.. the biggest winner of all was bought at 9:32. Trading is hard af. Glad we have traders like @RealSimpleAriel laying out the law and giving earnest advice
If you want to play a possible bounce tomorrow. - You wait for the morning profit taking - Let the market set an intraday low from the gap up - Play the reclaim of VWAP - Size properly - Set stop at LOD DEFINITELY do not chase the opening print. Even if that works tomorrow; it has NOT been working for a few weeks. and buying into supply below the 200sma is almost always fools gold. Just look at todays action.
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A tight stop isn't always best. Qullamaggie's tightest stops got taken out 81% of the time. His widest, 64%. One of the questions traders ask most is where the stop should go. I split his stops in terms of how wide they were.. Tightest third: a median 1.3% below, 17% winners. Widest third: 4.8% below, 28% winners. It's all connected and we can't have our cake and eat it too
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Big fan of @Wordsofrizdom , but weekly alignment doesn't help breakouts. On 6,150 trades, skipping the ones where the weekly didn’t line up gave up 38% of the total R. Qullamaggie bought 44% of his breakouts with the weekly not trending up.
Since 2022 I've sat down with hundreds of traders on Words of Rizdom. The idea that changed my own trading most wasn't a strategy. It was time frame alignment. Check the higher timeframe trend first. Only drop to a lower timeframe when it agrees. If they don't line up, there's no trade. People keep searching for a holy grail setup. This one rule did more for me than any setup ever did.
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