Uh...none of this will happen.
I'm firmly in the camp that believes that AI will solve the world's problems long before things can get really bad along any timeline.
Many of the world's most serious problems are due to an uneven distribution of education and, consequently, intelligence, across large parts of the world. But intelligence will soon be accessible everywhere and somewhat uniformly distributed. It only takes one generation of curious kids to be educated and motivated to today's best levels by AI, and a whole country changes shape.
To put my position simply, I think people around the world will become so dependent on external intelligence that they will become defanged, deradicalized, and de-weirded. They'll be biased, influenced, and ultimately changed for the better by the models themselves. We'll see AI basically running people's lives around the world in 5-10 years. And it will make people behave, simply by not helping them if they don't.
I also think the logical extension of LLMs being able to write model weights directly is that in a decade they'll be able to rewrite neurons in your brain. If they can make Qwen 6x better at math, then probably they can make you 6x better at math too.
Maybe the procedure will be via neuralink, or crispr, or maybe in time it won't even break skin. But LLMs are going to be able to rewrite people. Bob will go into the machine to get a math upgrade and he'll come out not being an asshole anymore, and people will be like, huh, what happened?
And so I'm an eternal optimist about the future, no matter how crazy it gets in the short term, say 3 to 5 years. Things are going to change a lot. Imagine what happens when people can rewrite their own genes in 10 years. Society will struggle with it.
But in the 15-20 year horizon, I think we're going to stop fighting each other because of AI. And the world will be an astonishingly better place.