not all software, but you get the idea

aiuto sto morendo per questa pubblicità francese 😭

I get it, and given the current Admin who is just so openly an apparatus of the Russian state, I think that's the right call. HOWEVER, it shows how far the West has fallen that they've now sent the message it's totally fine to just make up reasons for a conflict, go in, take 25% of a country, and call it a day.

This is such an important piece and something I have argued for years. You need to read it. The Fed and BLS have consistently made policy changes to reduce reported inflation measures AND STILL the Fed ignores inflation above target for 6 years “It is no coincidence: Every major change since 1983 went in the same direction – reducing the reporting of inflation data, regardless of increasing prices, often with dire consequences.”

Gavin Baker says token prices are falling, but the price of renting a GPU hour “has gone vertical,” because each GPU hour now produces more useful tokens BAKER: “By the way, on Jevons Paradox, it is interesting, and I think it’s very important to be precise in our terms. What we have seen, Silicon Data, an Atreides and I believe NVIDIA portfolio company, has this token index. It captures price and mix." "And as the price of tokens has gone down and the mix has shifted to cheaper tokens. The cost to rent an hour of GPU has gone vertical." "And that is because as you’re getting more tokens that are more useful out of a given GPU hour, that GPU hour becomes more valuable. So we’ve actually seen as the price of tokens has gone down, the prices that you were charging companies per your last call has gone vertical. You raised prices how many times in the last three months?” VOLOZH: “Ugh, nobody counts. Now we raise prices every 12 minutes on the auctions. Not only raising, by the way. Sometimes they go down.” BAKER: “But token, we need to be precise in our terms. Price of tokens going down, shifting to cheaper tokens, does not mean the price of renting a GPU from Arkady is going down.”

Bro, NOBODY wants to sell their compute. DeepSeek doesn't even want to let investors in because they have no use for money- they want COMPUTE. But they can't get it for any money in the world. Literally none of the big players would want to switch positions with Elon: Having a meme AI model that is 8 months behind and so underused that you have to sell your compute (which originally was hailed as your unique competitive advantage) Hailing SpaceX for growing their AI revenue through compute rentals is the equivalence of hailing a girl who drops out of Harvard Law school to suck old people's dicks because she earns more than her classmates.

Anthropic IPO is pricing @ $1.5T, ~9x forward revenue or ~9x forward revenue. Revenue forecasts presented were approximately $55B / $140B / $265B / $665B for 2026–2029. I think numbers are good.

Yeah my loosely held base case is huge populist backlash. Think of nuclear power that got restricted in society but pressed ahead by military application (eg in submarines). Think of how regulated the banks were post-08

It's funny going back to 2015/2016 and reading $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG sell side research about the cloud business.

Terminal value drives 70%+ of valuation in a DCF model. Narrative drives perception in terminal value. Detecting (or predicting) narrative inflection is the new meta that's really always been the meta.

Thank you for this, @_NathanCalvin. I appreciate and am a fan of the investigative work you’ve done on behalf of AI safety and believe your comments are coming from a constructive, honest place, and that it benefits the public to have people whose job is to scrutinize the actions of frontier AI companies. I think something would be wrong if companies of the size of Anthropic didn’t get harshly criticized basically every day; strong antibodies against corporate power are a healthy feature of a free society, and especially so when issues of the gravity of the one we’re facing are at play. I also do agree that some of the examples you cite were mistakes by Anthropic. That said, I disagree with the thrust of your post. At the core, a good fraction of the things you criticize are consequences of Anthropic’s basic theory of change that we have held for many years. Our strategy has always been what I’ve called the “race to the top” — by showing how it’s possible to build the technology responsibly, we can raise the bar for the entire industry. The forces that drive the race to the top are hugely more effective if the company practicing them is at the frontier; that’s one lesson I’ve learned repeatedly. And looking at that strategy as a whole, I’m proud of our track record and stand by it. I believe that if we take a list of things that Anthropic did in the past year that were pro-safety and commercially costly to us, they far outweigh the list you’ve made, while at the same time I also disagree with some of the items on your list. Here are some things Anthropic has done, in the same period you’ve cited (the last year), which were very costly to us commercially while having strong safety benefits: 1. We played a key role in SB53 (and other state laws), at a time when doing so was politically perilous to the company and AI regulation was very unpopular. We in fact argued for a stronger version of SB53 than was ultimately passed; there were a lot of stakeholders and we were not the limiting factor in the strength of the bill that was passed. 2. We have very strong biological safeguards on our models, because we’ve seen concerning results in bio uplift trials and even seen and blocked potential attempts to misuse our models for bioweapons (as seen in our threat intelligence report from a few weeks ago). This is a very serious threat that we want to have zero tolerance for. But having very low false negatives means having significant false positives (despite months of effort on our part to improve the classifiers), enough so that biologists joke about how restrictive our classifiers are, and competitors sometimes sell against us by touting their more permissive bio capabilities. This has been very painful to us in an area where we care a lot about supporting an ecosystem of Claude users (biomedical science; and it is particularly frustrating to me as a biologist), but it’s the right thing to do and we intend to keep doing it. 3. Similarly, we first had Mythos-class models in February but didn’t make them generally available until June (when we had stronger cyber safeguards in place). We only offered them to a limited set of partners in order to focus on cyberdefense. It would have been much more economically rational to simply release the model to everyone. We likely sacrificed a significant chunk of a several-month model lead. But because of this, many companies secured their cyber infrastructure before the deluge of widely available cyber-capable models. Of course there are ways it could have gone better or been run better, but this was what we were aiming to do. 4. I advocated forcefully and publicly, in my essay Policy on the AI Exponential in June of this year, for the government to have the power to block model releases. Back then this was still outside or maybe on the edge of the Overton window, though I understand the window has moved since then. We were attacked intensely for this. 5. I don’t want to re-ignite conflict, but the events of February 2026 are a strong example. It is clear that our public stance could have seriously damaged the company’s future. 6. We’ve continued to advocate for export controls on chips and chipmaking equipment to China, because we think it allows democracies to negotiate from a position of strength on AI safety agreements. We’ve done this despite problems it’s created for us with industry partners who hold very different views and on whom we are very dependent. 7. As far as I’m aware we were the first, and still only, frontier company to restrict the sale of AI services to PRC-controlled companies, including those operating through third countries (otherwise a major loophole). We’ve therefore forfeited significant short-term business to prevent fueling AI platforms and applications that would help the CCP’s military and intelligence services. We are also cracking down on distillation; generally, distillation is not a major threat to us commercially, but like chip exports it has concerning national security and safety implications, so we expend significant energy and company resources to address it. 8. As you mentioned, we’ve put out a lot of reports, announcements, long model cards, public advocacy, etc, all trying to inform the public about the risks of AI. These involve a level of detail and effort that would be implausible for a purely profit-maximizing company. 9. Just this week, we announced we were putting 5% (and possibly more over time) of the company into a public benefit fund. All of these decisions came with very substantial costs to us. To be fair, those that involved holding back or restricting access to frontier capabilities also had a broader cost — for example, the public might otherwise have benefitted from faster progress in biology, so I am not saying that our decisions were without tradeoffs — but they were not driven by profit-seeking. For each decision, you can come up with ulterior motives that could have driven us — I think it is a general truth that any decision, on any topic, can always be portrayed as a nefarious scheme. But most of those end up being pretty farfetched or don’t fully make sense if you actually examine them closely. For example, it is deeply implausible that it would be a shrewd business move to block a large swath of research biology in order to do the work ourselves and compete with our customers; we expect the benefit to the ecosystem to greatly exceed the work Anthropic does itself, and for the two to complement each other. It is not in Anthropic’s interest to be perceived as unfriendly to biologists. Our Life Sciences Verification Program, which gives vetted biology professionals access to our models, also refutes this idea. Of course, a different set of people will see this and make a different criticism: that Anthropic shouldn't be making decisions about who gets access to what in the first place. I agree, in the sense that ideally the government would be making these decisions, and that’s why we advocate for regulation. But for now we are forced to make them, and enabling bioterrorism isn’t a better option. I think that even if I conceded every item in your list, I would happily hold up mine next to it; I don’t think it’s a close call. That is of course partly subjective and different things are important to different people. Maybe one way you could object is that several of the items above relate to AI misuse and not loss-of-control; if you think the latter is much more important than the former, that might change your calculus. But this is not Anthropic’s view — we view both as serious issues. You can also disagree with our decisions, as many have, but they are consistent. But I also disagree with at least some of your list. Several items don’t represent a deviation from Anthropic’s strategy or values at all, once we postulate the “race to the top” strategy that requires being a frontier AI company. Your items 1-4 are all simply examples of what it means to compete at the frontier, and we stand by them, both in the sense that they are transparently ordinary things to do as part of that strategy, and that we stand by the strategy as a whole. To be fair, there are important questions worth confronting (and that we are confronting) about what to do when the AI-driven acceleration gets fast enough that it is hard for safety to keep up. We are nearing that point and that’s what’s driving some of our thinking about “pacing.” But 1-4 are actions taken before that point and should be perfectly expected based on Anthropic’s strategy as a company. Of course it is possible to disagree with that strategy, but that’s a more fundamental disagreement that you could have had any time over the last few years. I agree we could have handled your items 7, 8, and 9 better. All fall into the category of “rhetoric or policy communication that wasn’t carefully written or resulting from fast-changing circumstances not propagating from one team to another fast enough.” This kind of thing happens a lot in large organizations (Anthropic is over 5,000 people), and doesn’t even necessarily represent a failure or mistake of any single person. I am of course the CEO, and I take responsibility. The volume of communication from Anthropic is enormous and if these are the worst examples, I think we’re frankly doing pretty well, though I will continue to work hard to make sure we do even better. Your 5th item (the change to our RSP) is the most substantive item, and people can debate this, but I think that the old, more rigid RSP created a lot of situations where we were technically required to do something that required a lot of effort but in retrospect wasn’t very important for safety, as well as not covering some of the most important things. Our current RSP’s focus on transparency brought things like risk reports and roadmaps, and its emphasis on independent external review laid the groundwork for even more intensive embedded evaluation, all of which I think have been valuable in driving a race to the top. In the original announcement in September 2023, we described the RSP as an “early iteration that we [would] build on” and said that “rapid iteration…will almost certainly be necessary.” I understand that changing plans is always a move that creates justifiable scrutiny — I just don’t think we ever represented that we wouldn’t do so. Relating to your 6th item (having an FCF in addition to our RSP), I know our intent is to meet the letter and spirit of our regulatory obligations (via our FCF) while also remaining able to experiment with more novel approaches to risk management that go beyond what the law currently requires (via our RSP). I promise to look into it further, as it’s a complex issue and it is possible we are not weighing the considerations in the right way. Overall, although Anthropic has made plenty of mistakes as an organization — including some of the items on your list — I feel that we have repeatedly taken serious and substantive actions counter to our bottom line and that there is a significant negativity bias distorting assessments like the one you are making above. We’ll always try to do better but, again, I am extremely proud of our track record and stand by it. I will have more to say soon about how we are going to further live our values in this moment of rapid change.

A former Google employee says that starting around mid-Q2, customers began swapping some Anthropic and OpenAI models out of their multi-agent setups for open-source ones. That is consistent with an expert interview we did in August:

The market is severely underestimating compute demand over the next 20 to 30 years by at least 1,000x because financial models are treating AI data centers like standard enterprise cloud spending rather than a global utility expansion. Moving from simple chat prompts to continuous, autonomous background reasoning and real time spatial computing will fundamentally break traditional grid connections, pushing total power requirements directly into a terawatt scale footprint. Intelligence will be the largest market in the solar system. The long term bottleneck won't just be semiconductor manufacturing or HBM yields, it will be securing dedicated behind the meter baseload energy like small modular reactors and direct to chip liquid cooling infrastructure to handle the thermal load. Compute is the defining physical infrastructure asset of this century.

OpenAI also does this

First Service has bought very little shares in the past. Great company. In the last 6 months, they bought back 9.8% of the shares A big and sudden change. Anyone know what’s going on ? $FSV

Promise $500-$1t in revenue Market prices the equity for $250-500b Raise enough money to get to $100-200b Go to Mars

NVIDIA's consensus revenue estimate for 2027 is roughly $700 billion. Vera Rubin runs ~$40B per GW. SpaceX is "exclusive to NVIDIA", per Elon. So when Elon claims SpaceX is going to build 20GW of capacity next year, he's suggesting SpaceX will spend $800 billion on NVIDIA chips.. or greater than 100% of NVIDIA's total revenue, lol. $SPCX $NVDA

SpaceX call - Elon Musk: We're hounded relentlessly by every hyperscaler and dozens of smaller companies to rent more of our compute. We could rent out our compute several times over Uhhh... That sounds bullish for neoclouds guys.