I expect this is roughly correct, except that people are dramatically underestimating what human intelligence is capable of if it's OOM faster than human minds, nearly infinitely replicable with instant knowledge transfer, doesn't sleep or tire, and runs solely on electricity.
To be honest, my personal opinion is that the models will converge on human intelligence because there's nothing in the pretraining data smarter than humans. I think once we get near human intelligence, we will struggle to make progress.