I think the single largest disconnect on how folks view the impact of AI is which folks' jobs are more "NP-like", where you can recognize a correct solution easily, vs work where you checking a solution is comparably hard to solving the problem ("P-like"). For example, "do my taxes" is relatively P-like, while "get my printer working" is relatively NP-like.
I often hear the "AI is useless" crowd say "but you have to check all its outputs", and it never landed until I realized that a ton of those people work P-like jobs where there that impression probably *is* relatively true.
For example, if you're a writer (like Ed Zitron) there's probably very little NP-like work, so I actually just buy that the unreliability of AI is a big deal for him. But I almost never hear Ed talk about all the NP-like work that exists out there. He'll just be like "you have to check the outputs anyway, so what's the point". I asked Opus 5 to design a 3D printed part to adapt one part onto another, and it fetched all the datasheets, got the dimensions, and one-shot it. I printed Opus's part without looking, and when it was done, sure enough everything lined up and the part worked great, and there was nothing to "check".
I think Ed just doesn't do very much NP-like work -- which is not a knock against him! A lot of very important specialized labor in the world is P-like (doctors, lawyers, etc.). And sure enough, we're seeing slow penetration of AI for such labor. I just think he's missing that a lot of labor is NP-like.
I thought of this because I've now watched about three different
@edzitron interviews in which someone says "well, I get value from AI", and then Ed (very reasonably) asks "can you give an example", and then the person gives an extremely P-like example (like "doing my taxes" or "checking my lab results"), and I wince, because I know that Ed is going to (probably rightly) push back. I want the next person to chat with him to give a very NP-like example!
(P.S. Maybe I should NP∩coNP, or FNP or something instead of NP to be more accurate, but NP is much better known.)