I have no idea if this disruption in the AI trade is a blip, or the beginning of an unwinding or rationalization that will turn off the growth capital spigot. No one knows. But we have seen stuff like this before.
A few things that EVERY founder in tech should be thinking about in this market environment. In periods like this, it is really hard to believe the growth dollars (equity and debt) are going to shut off until they do. If you are burning cash, you should always understand your backup plan to survive a protracted dislocation.
1. What is your plan if capital markets (equity and debt) closed tomorrow. Can you get profitable fast enough? Can you extend the runway indefinitely?
2. How durable is your revenue? How much of it comes from other companies that rely on new infusions of growth capital to continue to spend with you?
History is a teacher. What 1999/early 2000 dotcom bubble and 2021 SaaS bubble had in common:
- in both prior bubbles, default assumption there was an exit path at historically high multiples (more IPO in 1999, more PE buyout in 2021)
- Default assumption that more growth capital would be available
- Revenue growth relied on other venture businesses. In 99, lots of ads supported internet businesses deploying growth capital to others. In 2021, mainly seat based pricing models was magnified by selling between SaaS businesses in venture funded hyper-growth mode.
When the growth capital dried up in 99 and late 2021 and early 22, it not only increased pressure on companies to be more efficient, it also pressured revenue durability because a big chunk of growth came from other loss-making growth businesses.
This cycle isn’t exactly the same, there are some key differences, some would make any dislocation better, some would make it worse.
- More token based selling vs. seat based
- Definitely growth magnified with the buy/sell between high burn growth companies
- Much lower gross margins on current crop of high growth AI companies, which makes “default alive” - pulling back to breakeven much harder than 2021
Wherever you are today, have a plan.