actuary | creator of inpredictable.com | co-creator of evollve.net | you can also find me at bsky under the same handle
Los Angeles
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I'm so excited for this launch, and incredibly proud of the work @cwetzel31 and @basketballvalue have put into this.
I'm really looking forward to how we can contribute to the sport of volleyball.
We are thrilled to announce the launch of Evollve!
Our goal at Evollve is to provide the volleyball community with consistent, reliable, and easily accessible data and analysis.
Check it out at evollve.net!
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My daughter shared a reel with me on how middles are chaotic/aggressive servers.
Using our @evollve database, I ran some numbers on that.
Positions ranked by serve aggression (ace + error rate):
1. Opposites
2. Middles
3. Outside Hitters
4. Setters
5. Liberos/DS
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Yesterday's IU-Minnesota game saw the following win probability swings on 4 *consecutive* plays:
-57%: Minn hits 60 yd fg, IU 60% -> 3%
+18%: IU completes 33 yd pass, 3% -> 21%
+29%: IU hits 60 yd fg, 21% -> 50%
+26%: IU TD pass on 1st play of OT: 50% -> 76%
source: ESPN
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That very well could have been the greatest 4 play sequence in the history of college football, as measured by win probability swing.
Two caveats:
1. I'm not counting the kickoff touchback as a "play"
2. ESPN still defaults OT to 50/50 in their win probability models
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Gabby Williams hit a 31 foot three pointer to put the Valkyries up 3 with 2:18 left. It increased their title chances from 54% to 75%.
It was the 10th biggest shot in WNBA history, as measured by impact to championship probability (+21%).
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Always surprises me how...probable a 25 point comeback is if it's early enough in the game.
Warriors win probability was still 7% when down by 25 early in the 2nd.
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Volleyball win probability charts can have weird shapes. Due to the nature of set scoring, you can get garbage time sprinkled throughout the match.
Example from the Hoosiers' reverse sweep last night over Michigan State:
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Interesting divergence on the competing Senate Forecasts, with The Silver Bulletin getting more confident in a Democrat victory while The Economist moves closer to toss up.
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Mike Beuoy retweeted
Which NBA player gets their threes off the quickest?
Through the first week of the season, Reed Sheppard has the fastest average release time on threes (0.741 seconds) in the league.
Data: NBA Game Pulse / Inside the Game
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Midterm Model Melee update:
Consensus Senate Forecast has moved away from the Deomcrats - this leads to a drop in bankroll/credibility for the Silver Bulletin model since it is highest on the Democrats relative to the consensus.
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A good illustration of where models and intuition disagree.
I think a lot of people, including coaches, think in terms of “scores behind” when it’s late in the game. So a 12 point deficit doesn’t feel any better than a 9 point deficit - it’s still “two scores”.
Pretty funny after this week's #discourse but it actually happened: Kyle Shanahan went for it on 4th down when the model preferred kick!
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I wouldn't necessarily call it variance, but this tracks to the data I've pulled.
A team that is up 20 at the half underperforms by about 5 points in the 2nd half.
Joe Mazzulla says the Celtics analytics staff studied situations where teams led by at least 20 over the last decade.
He says that when you’re up by 20 in today’s game, not only is growing that to 30 not a realistic expectation, but due to variance, you’re really up by 15.
It will most likely shrink to 6 or 7. It comes down to how you then handle that situation.
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