Co-host of the Odd Lots podcast. I like financial crisis hindsight, spurious correlation and puppies. London ➡️ New York ➡️ Abu Dhabi ➡️ Hong Kong ➡️ New York
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Tracy Alloway retweeted
What @tracyalloway calls “Infinite work machine”
The job-finding process seems to be an early hint at what AI/automation could do to a lot of things. Both massive, speculative bulk applications and aggressive automated filtering are now very easy. And neither employees nor applicants seem to be happy with the new equilibrium.
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NEW ODD LOTS - CYBERSECURITY IN THE AGE OF AI
We recorded this before the Binance hack, but really it's perfect timing. @TheStalwart & I speak with @XorNinja & @brucedang of Calif, one of the firms that uncovered the recent PHP vulnerability.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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Once again proving that @jturek18 is a freak of nature polymath
From July:
news.polymarket.com/p/the-lo…
President Lagarde has informed the Governing Council and the President of the European Council António Costa that she will step down from her position on 7 February 2027.
Her successor will be appointed by the European Council in due course.
Press release ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/…
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And here is Alty's chart referenced in today's episode and published in last week's Odd Lots newsletter (which you should subscribe to)
bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
NEW ODD LOTS
Where does Wall Street stand on the AI trade now.
@tracyalloway and I talk to Barclays’ Alex Altmann who explains what’s going on with the neoclouds, the hyperscalers, chips and memory and whether the “denial” phase has officially begun podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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Tracy Alloway retweeted
NEW ODD LOTS
Where does Wall Street stand on the AI trade now.
@tracyalloway and I talk to Barclays’ Alex Altmann who explains what’s going on with the neoclouds, the hyperscalers, chips and memory and whether the “denial” phase has officially begun podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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Once the hyperscalers went FCF -ve, the search for capital was on. Started in credit, moved to eq and now we're seeing the sellers of shortage invest back into the buyers of shortage (NVDA into META). The system is fighting to keep the lane of capital access as open as possible.
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The insurance angles on AI are fascinating to me
One of the more consequential disclosures in Anthropic’s S-1:
“With the scale of harm that could result from a catastrophic AI-related incident, no single insurer, and potentially the insurance industry in the aggregate, may have sufficient capacity or expertise to underwrite insurance commensurate with such exposure.”
If the whole insurance industry may not be able to underwrite frontier Al risk, we probably need something new: pooled, public-private, or built from scratch. Would love to meet anyone thinking seriously about this.
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Tracy Alloway retweeted
As @tracyalloway writes in today's Odd Lots newsletter... The logical endpoint is my agent battles some company’s algorithm until they reach the same equilibrium we would reached before AI, except we both spent a lot on tokens and the whole thing is value destroying.
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wrote about AI AS THE INFINITE WORK MACHINE, creating a world where we're all just constantly deploying agents to fight against everyone else's agents, running constantly to end up in the same place:
bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
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Has an S-1 filing ever included "existential risks to humanity" before?
sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…
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Tracy Alloway retweeted
NEW ODD LOTS:
@tracyalloway and I talk to @owenslindsay1 about the state of the art technology that companies are finding to figuring the maximum price you will pay for something. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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Helium added to the list of critical materials:
energy.gov/sites/default/fil…
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NEW ODD LOTS - The FORGOTTEN GODMOTHER OF MODERN ECONOMICS
In this episode, @TheStalwart & I talk to @jeannasmialek about her new book on Maria Edgworth, a largely forgotten Regency-era novelist who was a major contributor to early economics
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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Tracy Alloway retweeted
NEW ODD LOTS:
Jacobin founder @sunraysunray tells me and @tracyalloway that after the socialists take over, we don’t have to worry. Markets will still have a major role to play in the economy open.spotify.com/episode/1cv…
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Tracy Alloway retweeted
THIS IS WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE WHEN NATION'S FAILE
On the new Odd Lots, @tracyalloway and I talked to Nobel Prize winning economist James Robinson -- co-author of Why Nations Fail -- to tell us about the state of the US and what would be the signs of failure.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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There's something that really irks me about people describing the market reaction to the 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank as "overblown."
The selloff was overblown because we ended up getting an SVB 'fix' in the form of a complete transformation of the US banking system with an unlimited bailout of depositors (above the $250k FDIC cap) and a new liquidity program from the Fed (the BTFP).
If your preferred analogy for the CoreWeave selloff is 'Oh, it's like SVB, it's not systemic' then you need to at least acknowledge the systemic changes that stopped SVB from becoming a much bigger deal.
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NEW ODD LOTS
It's the one and only Terry Duffy, @CMEGroup Chairman and CEO, on the disconcerting state of market regulation.
@TheStalwart & I talk to him about insider trading, prediction markets, perpetual futures, and how to make an exit.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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Business Insider confirms it: Amazon has warehouses of GPUs that can’t be installed, and is buying them so far in advance that a supply chain team said they “didn’t have a clear forecasted path” to installing them.
businessinsider.com/amazon-2…
Free newsletter: I estimate that ~50% of AI chip sales - $200bn to $300bn+ - are sitting in warehouses, with NVIDIA selling hundreds of billions of GPUs years in advance. Data centers take way longer to build than hyperscalers are leading us to believe.
wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-…
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