@Pollitik_Lab Jair Bolsonaro and Lula sit on opposite sides of Brazilian politics, yet their approval followed the same arc: a peak, a drop of more than 20 points, and a partial recovery. Lula won the Oct 25 runoff with 51.8% of valid votes.
#Brazil #Lula #Eleições2026 #Lula2026
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Pollitik retweeted
New research by @PollitikLab! If you haven't followed the new account, please do. H/t to @IzuO812 for the great visualization!
Did Sheinbaum inherit AMLO’s popularity, or surpass it? 🇲🇽
Enkoll’s first-year snapshots put Sheinbaum at 78%, six percentage points above AMLO’s 72% at a similar point.
#Enkoll #ApprovalRatings #Mexico #AMLO #ClaudiaSheinbaum
ALT Line chart compares Enkoll approval snapshots during the first year in office for Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Claudia Sheinbaum. Sheinbaum ends at 78% approval, compared with 72% for AMLO at a similar point. Dates are uneven survey snapshots, not monthly averages.
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Did Sheinbaum inherit AMLO’s popularity, or surpass it? 🇲🇽
Enkoll’s first-year snapshots put Sheinbaum at 78%, six percentage points above AMLO’s 72% at a similar point.
#Enkoll #ApprovalRatings #Mexico #AMLO #ClaudiaSheinbaum
ALT Line chart compares Enkoll approval snapshots during the first year in office for Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Claudia Sheinbaum. Sheinbaum ends at 78% approval, compared with 72% for AMLO at a similar point. Dates are uneven survey snapshots, not monthly averages.
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Pollitik retweeted
Very excited to see this important Special Issue come together and to have contributed to it. Thx to the co-editors @htchen_ @uatiff @SebaValenz for their work as support!
🚨Out now!🚨
POQ's special issue, Advancing Public Opinion Research Across Countries and Contexts.
An overview from the editors: doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfag062
All articles and notes: academic.oup.com/poq/issue
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Pollitik retweeted
🌡️ readings for the US public
Are Americans more identified as Liberal or Consevative these days? The answer matters for the midterms.
50 yrs of data show thermostatic dynamics @CBWlezien-conservative ID goes us when policy moves too liberal & vice versa.
Check it out & subscribe! pollitik.substack.com/p/ideo…
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Are Americans more identified as Liberal or Consevative these days? The answer matters for the midterms.
50 yrs of data show thermostatic dynamics @CBWlezien-conservative ID goes us when policy moves too liberal & vice versa.
Check it out & subscribe! pollitik.substack.com/p/ideo…
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Americans' preferences for issues aren't static. How have abortion stances shifted post-Dobbs?
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RIP🙏What happens to approval ratings when a world leader dies in office?
Explore approval ratings for 4 dead presidents and their successors in our latest observation📈📉: Going Out On Top open.substack.com/pub/pollit…
#approvalratings #twitterstorian #deadpresidents
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Pollitik retweeted
Blessed to have worked with THE @JamesSwaffordGA on this as part of the 2026 Summer edition of @PollitikLab. Thx for bringing it, James!
Florida isn't my specialty, but I took a look. Based on the math, I projected that @RepDonaldsPress will take the Florida governorship with 48.3% of the vote.
This ended up being a fun yet challenging project to work on as part of my Grad program.
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Candidate quality will definitely matter. But these fundamentals were locked in before the primaries! So take it as a data point. Polymarket and Kalshi equally bullish on Keisha.
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Who'll be Florida's next governor? A view from the fundamentals suggests a tighter race than you might suspect...subscribe to our Substack for free access or see link in comments
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@Pollitik_Lab
The race for Georgia governor just got a projection. 823 votes decided Keisha Lance Bottoms' 2017 runoff. Could 2026 come down to just as few? Check out our new forcast:
pollitik.substack.com/p/fund…
#gapol
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Our forecasts show something similar in the GA Governor's race open.substack.com/pub/pollit…
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Pollitik retweeted
Nice job @PollitikLab on this report! Forecasts were built on data from @MattSingerPOLS's State Executive Approval Database
Who will be Georgia's next governor? The answer may surprise you....In our latest Substack we compare 2 fundamentals forecasts with prediction market vibes. Follow Pollitik there & see link in 1st comment.
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Our latest forecasts point to something similar for the governor's race in GA open.substack.com/pub/pollit…
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