GTP-4 Takes on Minecraft! ⛏️🤖 A new study introduces Voyager, an LLM-powered agent in Minecraft, which can learn and evolve without any human intervention. - Voyager explores the world, builds new skills, and makes original discoveries independently. - It interacts with GPT-4 via blackbox queries, bypassing the need for model parameter fine-tuning. - It's 3.3x more efficient in obtaining unique elements, travels 2.3x longer distances, and progresses up to 15.3x faster in the game compared to prior SOTA! The game-changing potential implications? • A major leap towards developing autonomous agents for complex, open-ended worlds. • New standard for player-less game-testing. • Increment our understanding of the potential of LLM in embodied tasks. Remember when we were amazed by AI beating human at chess? Now it's teaching itself Minecraft!

Since GFC in 2008, fertility rate has declined more in US than in other countries. Lower population growth leads to secular stagnation, has significant consequences for level of interest rates, Fed behavior, & returns for investors, Apollos's Slok says. apolloacademy.com/us-fertili…

Follow the money and you'll get a clearer picture of what's going on in the market.

Excellent chart showing how earnings and valuations don't bottom together! Historically, stock prices bottom 6-9 months before EPS reach their low as multiples start to rise reflecting Fed cuts and accommodative policy ahead.

Liquidity base case after the introduction of “The Waller Rule” H2-2023 looks bearish still Want to understand the underlying components of the model etc -> stenoresearch.com/subscribe/

If we really get a proper recession, the SPX ultimate lows might be in the 3,200-3,400 area.

Lower bond market volatility (orange) = SPX up (blue, inverted). This has been one of the drivers of the recent rally. When the foundations are less shaky, it's easier for investors to add risk to their portfolio.

The #Market finally broke out of its 2008 analog but is potentially still tracking the 1974 analog.

#BofA says #Fed peaks at 4.9% by June and then #cuts to 3% by December. Thought Exercise: IF NO #recession, #employment remains strong, #stocks are rallying, and #inflation is cooling - WHY would the #Fed need to cut #rates?

$VIX : $TAIL imho, the VIX is getting ready to move higher here.

$BTC Spot CVDs Whole move from 17k to 21k was made by someone on Binance aggressively buying #Bitcoin with BUSD. Other exchanges started to buy around 19.5k with USDT + USD. Green CVD includes all exchanges with Binance USDT as well, yellow CVD - only BUSD.

Over the past 5 years (looking at the 2017 peak and 2018 crash onwards), #bitcoin volatility - to my eyes - seems to be trending lower. I expect this as bitcoin matures/ages as a product. That said, volatility does look cheap too. How to play this all is the question...

What happens to Gold when the Fed stops hiking rates?

China re-opening could add 0.9% to inflation. Looks high to me. Unless China massively increases money supply. via Bloomberg

$SPX Same people who didn’t 🥊 the FED in 2020-2021 is now ready to 🥊 the FED in 2023😅

LIVE shot of the new bull case = 08' like Crash Landing

This is an obscure labor statistic. Manufacturing Overtime Hours. Bad things usually happen when this is <3.2 and it printed 2.9 in a tight labor market.

Brent 2020-2024 vs 2004-2008?

At @asr_london, we believe that you will see another down year for US (and Global) Equities in 2023. Two down years in a row are unusual (outside world wars), but a not unheard of... 1/8

The Fed has never held rates higher than the 2-year Treasury yield for a prolonged period of time Either 2-year yield moves up or the Fed changes its stance on monetary policy